Directional Bias For The Day:
S&P Futures are higher at 8:15 AM – trending up since 2:00 PM on Tuesday- The odds are for an up day – watch for a break below 4052.50 for a change of sentiments
- The major economic data report is due during the day.
- Final GDP ( 2.7% est.; prev. 2.7%) at 8:50 AM
- Unemployment Claims ( 196K est.; prev. 191K) at 8:30 AM
- Final GDP Price Index ( 3.9% est.; prev. 3.9%) at 8:30 AM
Directional Bias Before Open:
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Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4030.59, 4007.32, and 3999.53
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4055.86, 4072.30, and 4081.51
- The key levels for E-mini futures are a break above 4082.50, a high at 10:00 AM on March 6, and a break below 4062.50, a low at 3:00 AM
Pre-Open
- On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (June 2023) closed at 4058.75, and the index closed at 4027.81 – a spread of about +31.00 points; the futures closed at 4057.50; the fair value is +0.75
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +31.25, Dow by +223, and NASDAQ by +103.75
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Tokyo closed lower; Mumbai was closed
- European markets are higher
- Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
Up | Down |
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- Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
- Energy futures are mixed
- Precious metals are higher
- Industrial metals are mostly lower
- Soft commodities are mixed
- Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
- The 10-year yield closed at 3.566, up +7.4 basis points from two weeks ago;
- The 30-year is at 3.778%, up +9.1 basis points;
- The 2-year yield is at 4.060%, up +18.1 basis points;
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.494, down from -0.387
- The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.212, up from +0.195
- VIX
- At 18.91 @ 6:45 AM; down from the last close; below the 5-day SMA;
- Recent high = 30.81 on March 13; low = 18.16 on March 2
- Sentiment: Risk-On
The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:
Weekly: |
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Daily |
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2-Hour (E-mini futures) |
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30-Minute (E-mini futures) |
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15-Minute (E-mini futures) |
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Previous Session
The major indices gapped up at the open and then mostly traded higher for the rest of the day, closing near the highs. All S&P sectors closed higher.
From Briefing.com:
[…] Today’s trade had a decidedly positive tone following the two-day Congressional hearing on the SIVB bank failure.
[…]Strength from semiconductor components helped drive a 2.1% gain in the S&P 500 information technology sector, which closed near the top of the leaderboard along with real estate (+2.3%) and consumer discretionary (+1.9%).
All 11 sectors closed with gains, but the defensive-oriented consumer staples (+0.5%) and health care (+0.2%) sectors lagged the broader market with the slimmest gains of the day.
[…]Advancers led decliners by a nearly 4-to-1 margin at the NYSE and a 2-to-1 margin at the Nasdaq.
[…]The 2-yr note yield rose one basis point to 4.07% and the 10-yr note yield was unchanged at 3.57%.
[…]
- Nasdaq Composite: +14.0% YTD
- S&P 500: +4.9% YTD
- S&P Midcap 400: +1.3% YTD
- Russell 2000: +0.6% YTD
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: -1.3% YTD
[…]
- The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index rose 2.9% with purchase application jumping 2.0% (-35% yr/yr) while refinancing applications rose 5.0% (-61% yr/yr).
- Pending home sales rose 0.8% in February (Briefing.com consensus -2.3%) following a 8.1% increase in January.
- The weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories showed a draw of 7.49 million barrels following last week’s draw of 1.06 million barrels.
Overseas:
- Europe: DAX +1.2%, FTSE +1.1%, CAC +1.4%
- Asia: Nikkei +1.3%, Hang Seng +2.1%, Shanghai -0.2%
Commodities:
- Crude Oil -0.12 @ 72.97
- Nat Gas +0.02 @ 2.17
- Gold -5.50 @ 1967.80
- Silver +0.11 @ 23.52
- Copper flat @ 4.08