Directional Bias For The Day:
S&P Futures are higher at 8:45 AM – up more than 60 points since the low of 3981.00 at 2:00 PM on Tuesday; drifting lower since 5:45 AM
- The odds are for an up day with a good chance of a sideways to down move from the pre-open levels around 4035.00 – watch for a break below 4024.00 for a change of sentiments
- The major economic data report is due during the day.
- Pending Home Sales( -2.9% est.; prev. 8.1%) at 10:00 AM
Directional Bias Before Open:
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Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3979.20, 3971.93, and 3951.53
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 3997.24, 4007.66, and 4039.49
- The key levels for E-mini futures are a break above 4040.25, a high at 5:45 AM, and a break below 4024.00, a low at 2:15 AM
Pre-Open
- On Tuesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (June 2023) closed at 4001.25, and the index closed at 3971.27 – a spread of about +30.00 points; the futures closed at 4001.50; the fair value is -0.25
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +31.25, Dow by +223, and NASDAQ by +103.75
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Shanghai closed lower
- European markets are higher
- Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
Up | Down |
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- Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
- Energy futures are mixed
- Precious metals are higher
- Industrial metals are mostly lower
- Soft commodities are mixed
- Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
- The 10-year yield closed at 3.581, down -5.7 basis points from two weeks ago;
- The 30-year is at 3.790%, up +2.9 basis points;
- The 2-year yield is at 4.072%, down -17.8 basis points;
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.491, up from -0.612
- The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.209, up from +0.123
- VIX
- At 19.34 @ 6:15 AM; down from the last close; below the 5-day SMA;
- Recent high = 30.81 on March 13; low = 18.16 on March 2
- Sentiment: Risk-On
The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:
Weekly: |
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Daily |
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2-Hour (E-mini futures) |
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30-Minute (E-mini futures) |
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15-Minute (E-mini futures) |
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Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed mostly lower on Tuesday, March 28, in lower volume. Dow Jones Transportation Average and NYSE Composite closed higher.
The major indices opened flat with a down bias. The day’s range was small, and the price action was muted.
From Briefing.com:
Today’s price action occurred in a relatively tight trading range on below average volume. The main indices closed with modest declines after climbing off their worst levels in the afternoon trade. […] Roughly half of the 11 S&P 500 sectors closed in the green, but energy (+1.5%) was the only sector to gain more than 1.0%. On the flip side, the communication services sector (-1.0%) was the worst performer by a decent margin,
[…]Advancers led decliners by a roughly 4-to-3 margin at the NYSE while decliners led advancers by the same margin at the Nasdaq.
[…]The 2-yr note yield rose six basis points to 4.06% and the 10-yr note yield rose four basis points to 3.56%.
[…]
- Nasdaq Composite: +11.9% YTD
- S&P 500: +3.4% YTD
- S&P Midcap 400: +0.1% YTD
- Russell 2000: -0.5% YTD
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: -2.3% YTD
[…]
- The advanced report for international trade in goods showed a $91.6 billion deficit in February versus the prior revised $91.1 billion deficit in January (-$91.5billion). The advanced report for retail inventories reflected a 0.8% build in February following a 0.1% increase in January. The advanced report for wholesale inventories showed a 0.2% build in February after a revised 0.5% decline in January (from -0.4%).
- The FHFA Housing Price Index rose 0.2% in January following a 0.1% decline in December. The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose 2.5% in January (Briefing.com consensus 2.5%) following a 4.6% increase in December.
- The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for March hit 104.2 (Briefing.com consensus 101.5) versus an upwardly revised 103.4 (from 102.9) for February. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 107.6.
Overseas:
- Europe: DAX +0.1%, FTSE +0.2%, CAC +0.1%
- Asia: Nikkei +0.2%, Hang Seng +1.1%, Shanghai -0.2%
Commodities:
- Crude Oil +0.04 @ 73.09
- Nat Gas -0.08 @ 2.15
- Gold +20.30 @ 1973.30
- Silver +0.30 @ 23.41
- Copper flat @ 4.08
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