Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are higher at 9:15 AM; advanced more than twenty points since 7:45 following a sideways move from 3:30 AM
• The odds are for an up day with elevated volatility – watch for breaks below 3991.25 and 2975.50 for a change of sentiments
• The major economic data report is due during the day:
  • Core Durable Goods Orders ( 0.7% vs. 0.1% est.; prev. -0.2%) at 8:30 AM
  • Durable Goods Orders ( -4.5% vs. -3.7% est.; prev. 5.1%) at 8:30 AM
  • Current Account ( -10.6B vs. -11.0B est.; prev. -8.4B) at 8:30 AM
  • Pending Home Sales ( 0.6% est.; prev. 2.5%) at 10:00 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Weekly: Uptrend Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure 120-Min: Down-Side

30-Min: Side-Up 15-Min: Up 6-Min:  Up

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3978.99, 3956.82, and 3949.34
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4010.30, 4021.97, and 4028.30
• The key levels for E-mini futures are a break above 4014.50, the high at 8:45 AM, and a break below 3991.25, the low at 7:45 AM

Pre-Open

• On Friday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2023) closed at 3975.75, and the index closed at 3970.04 – a spread of about +5.75 points; the futures closed at 3975.75; the fair value is 0.0
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +33.00, Dow by +228, and NASDAQ by +128.50

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed lower
• European markets are higher
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

Up	Down
Dollar index USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD INR/USD	EUR/USD GBP/USD AUD/USD NZD/USD

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are lower
  • Precious metals are lower
  • Industrial metals are lower
  • Soft commodities are mostly lower
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.920, up +17.6 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 3.934%, up +10.7 basis points;
  • The 2-year yield is at 4.803%, up +29.2 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.883, up from -0.767
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.014, down from 0.083
• VIX
  • At 21.57 @ 8:15 AM; down from the last close; below the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 23.63 on February 22; low = 18.11 on February 15
  • Sentiment: Risk-On

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Weekly:	The week ending on February 24 was a red candle with a small lower shadow and almost no upper shadow Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is below the %D; RSI-9 is just below 50 The week was down -109.05 or 2.7%; the 5-week ATR  is 137.72 A down week, third in the last five weeks, and sixth  in the previous ten weeks; The weekly pivot point=3988.49, R1=4033.90, R2=4097.76; S1=3924.63, S2=3879.22; S1/S2 pivot levels were breached At/below 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA; below 89-week SMA Uptrend Under Pressurere
Daily	A small Dragonfly candle; broke below the uptrend line from October 13, 2022, low, bouncing off the 200-day SMA. Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K has declined to the %D; RSI-9 is just above 30; below 8-DMA Below 20-day EMA and 50-day EMA; above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA; Uptrend Under Pressure
2-Hour (E-mini futures)	Trending down since the high of 4208.50 reached at 2:00 PM on February 2 – lower lows and lower highs; broke below a symmetrical triangle – the 100% extension target near 3990.00 is achieved, and the 161.8% extension target is near 3898.00; moving sideways since 2:00 PM on February 21 RSI-21 has bounced up above 65 from near 25 Below EMA10 of EMA50, but above EMA20 Bias:  Down-Side
30-Minute (E-mini futures)	Moving Sideways since 1:00 PM on February 21 between 4035.00 and 3973.00; bounce up above 4000.00 from Friday’s low below 3950.00 RSI-21 is near 70 from below 30 Above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Side-Up
15-Minute (E-mini futures)	The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving up  since 1:30 PM on Friday The Bollinger Band has been expanding since 8:15 AM, with the price walking up the upper band Bias: Up

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed lower on Friday, February 24, in mixed volume. Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones Transportation Average traded in lower volume.

Most major indices made small Doji or similar indecisive candlestick patterns. The major indices gapped down at the open but turned around by 1:00 AM after moving sideways following the initial decline. They mostly traded higher for the rest of the day.

For the week, the main indices closed lower in lower volume. The markets in Asia and Europe mostly closed lower. Shanghai closed higher. The dollar index closed up, the energy futures closed mixed, the metals closed down, and the soft commodities closed mixed. The US Treasury yields closed higher. All but one S&P sector – Energy – closed down.

From Briefing.com:

[…] The stock market was decidedly weak today on broad-based selling interest following the hotter than expected inflation data this morning. […] The 2-yr note yield, which is most sensitive to changes in the fed funds rate, rose nine basis points to 4.78% and the 10-yr note yield rose seven basis points to 3.95%. The U.S. Dollar Index also moved noticeably higher today, up 0.6% to 105.23. […] The main indices were able to recover noticeably, however, from their worst levels of the day despite logging sizable losses by the close. At their lows, the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500, were down 1.5%, 2.2%, and 1.7%, respectively. […] Most of the S&P 500 sectors closed in the red with real estate (-1.8%) and information technology (-1.8%) at the bottom of the pack. Materials (+0.7%) and financials (+0.1%) were alone in positive territory by the close. Nasdaq Composite: +8.9% YTD Russell 2000: +7.3% YTD S&P Midcap 400: +7.0% YTD S&P 500: +3.4% YTD Dow Jones Industrial Average: -1.0% YTD […] January Personal Income 0.6% (Briefing.com consensus 0.9%); Prior was revised to 0.3% from 0.2%; January Personal Spending 1.8% (Briefing.com consensus 1.3%); Prior was revised to -0.1% from -0.2%; January PCE Prices 0.6% (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%); Prior was revised to 0.2% from 0.1%; January PCE Prices – Core 0.6% (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%); Prior was revised to 0.4% from 0.3% […] January New Home Sales 670K (Briefing.com consensus 620K); Prior was revised to 625K from 616K […] February Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – Final 67.0 (Briefing.com consensus 66.6); Prior 66.4 […]