Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are lower at 9:00 AM; a double bottom around 4047.00 is emerging
• The odds are for a down day with elevated volatility – watch for a break above 4062.00 for a change in sentiments
• The major economic data report is due during the day:
  • Flash Services PMI ( 47.3 est.; prev. 46.8 ) 9:15 AM
  • Flash Manufacturing PMI  ( 47.4  est.; prev. 46.9) at 9:15 AM
  • Existing Home Sales (4.09M est.; prev. 4.02M) at 10:00 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Weekly: Uptrend Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure 120-Min: Side-Down

30-Min: Down 15-Min: Down 6-Min:  Down

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4037.20, 4015.55, and 3989.79
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4047.95, 4066.08, and 4081.51
• The key levels for E-mini futures are a break above 4062.00, the high at 7:00 AM, and a break below 4047.25, the low at 9:00 AM

Pre-Open

• On Friday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2023) closed at 4088.25, and the index closed at 4079.09 – a spread of about +9.25 points; the futures closed at 4087.50; the fair value is +0.75
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were lower – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -37.25, Dow by -341, and NASDAQ by -149.50

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mostly lower
• European markets are lower
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

Up	Down
Dollar index GBP/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD USD/CAD	EUR/USD USD/CHF NZD/USD INR/USD

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are mixed
  • Precious metals are lower
  • Industrial metals are mostly lower
  • Soft commodities are mixed
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.886, up +25.2 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 3.923%, up +25.1 basis points;
  • The 2-year yield is at 4.630%, up +14.7 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.744, up from -0.849
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.037, down from 0.038
• VIX
  • At 22.33 @ 8:15 AM; up from the last close; above the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 25.84 on December 13, 2022; low = 18.11 on February 15
  • Sentiment: Risk-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Weekly:	The week ending on February 17 was a small red candle that looked like a Doji with a small lower shadow and a relatively large upper shadow. Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K crossed below the %D; RSI-9 is just below 60 The week was down -11.37 or 0.3%; the 5-week ATR  is 136.49 A down week, third in the last five weeks, and sixth  in the previous ten weeks; The weekly pivot point=4095.60, R1=4143.26, R2=4207.26; S1=4031.44, S2=3983.78; R1 pivot level was breached Above 10-week EMA and 39-week SMA; below 89-week SMA Uptrend
Daily	A small Doji candle with almost no upper and lower shadows Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is below %D; RSI-9 is below 50; below 8-DMA At/below 20-day EMA; above 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA, and 200-day SMA; Uptrend Under Pressure
2-Hour (E-mini futures)	The down-sloping flag emerging with the price near the lower bound; the uptrend since January 19 has broken; broke below a symmetrical triangle – the 61.8% extension target near 4040.00 is almost achieved, and the 100% extension target is near 3980.00 RSI-21 has bounced up from just above 20; to above 35 Below EMA20, which is below EMA10 of EMA50 Bias:  Side-Down
30-Minute (E-mini futures)	Trending down since 9:00 PM on February 15, breaking below a support level – the low of 4055.75 made on Friday; the next two targets are around 4034.00 and  4020.00 RSI-21 is moving around 40 Below EMA20, which is below EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Down
15-Minute (E-mini futures)	The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving down since 5:00 AM on Monday. The Bollinger Band has been expanding since 4:00 AM, with the price near the lower band. Bias: Down

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mostly lower on Friday, February 17, in mixed volume. Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 closed higher. The major indices gapped down at the open, first trading lower and then sideways until mid-afternoon, when it turned around and steadily rose for the rest of the day. The bias still continued to be down.

For the week, the major US indices were mixed in higher volume. The markets in Asia mostly closed lower, and the European bourses closed higher. The dollar index closed up,  the commodity futures were mostly down, and the US Treasury yields inched up.

From Briefing.com:

[…] The 2-yr note yield, which hit 4.71% overnight, settled the session down two basis points to 4.61%. The 10-yr note yield, which hit 3.92% overnight, also fell two basis points today to 3.83%. […] Roughly half of the 11 S&P 500 sectors logged a gain this session led by the defensive-oriented consumer staples (+1.3%), utilities (+1.0%), and health care (+0.9%). Meanwhile, the energy (-3.7%) sector was the worst performer by a wide margin amid falling oil prices ($76.57/bbl, -1.91, -2.4%). Nasdaq Composite: +12.6% YTD Russell 2000: +10.5% YTD S&P Midcap 400: +9.7% YTD S&P 500: +6.2% YTD Dow Jones Industrial Average: +2.1% YTD Reviewing today’s economic data: January Import prices -0.2%; Prior was revised to -0.1% from 0.4% January Import Prices ex-oil 0.3%; Prior 0.4% January Export Prices 0.8%; Prior was revised to -3.2% from -2.6% January Export Prices ex-ag. 0.8%; Prior was revised to -3.3% from -2.7% January Leading Indicators -0.3% (Briefing.com consensus -0.3%); Prior was revised to -0.8% from -1.0% […]