Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are higher at 8:35 AM,; wild swing following the CPI data at 8:30 Am – the futures declined from around 4160.00 to around 4132.00 only to bounce up to 4185.00
• The odds are for an up day with elevated volatility – watch for a break above 4185.25 or a break below 4132.00 for clarity
• The major economic data report is due during the day:
  • CPI m/m ( 0.5% vs. 0.5% est.; prev. -0.1% ) 8:30 AM
  • Core CPI m/m ( 0.4% vs. 0.4% est.; prev. 0.3%) at 8:30 AM
  • CPI y/y ( 6.4% vs. 6.2% est.; prev. 6.5% ) at 8:30 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Weekly: Uptrend Daily: Uptrend 120-Min: Side-Up

30-Min: Up 15-Min: Up-Side 6-Min:  Side

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4121.02, 4109.30, and 4092.67
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4156.23, 4176.54, and 4195.44
• The key levels for E-mini futures are a break above 4185.25, the high at 8:30 AM, and a break below 4132.00, the low at 8:30 AM

Pre-Open

• On Monday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2023) closed at 4148.25, and the index closed at 4137.29 – a spread of about +11.00 points; the futures closed at 4147.25; the fair value is +1.00
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 7:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +7.50, Dow by +30, and NASDAQ by +35.75

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Hong Kong and Singapore closed down
• European markets are higher
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

Up	Down
Dollar index USD/JPY INR/USD	EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/CHF AUD/USD NZD/USD USD/CAD

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are mixed
  • Precious metals are lower
  • Industrial metals are lower
  • Soft commodities are mostly higher
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.717, up +16.6 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 3.791%, up +12.1 basis points;
  • The 2-year yield is at 4.541%, up +28.8 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.824, down from -0.702
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.074, down from 0.109
• VIX
  • At 20.44 @ 6:30 AM; up from the last close; at/above the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 23.76 on January 3; low = 17.06 on February 2
  • Sentiment: Risk-Neutral-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Weekly:	The week ending on February 10 was a Spinning Top red Harami candle near a resistance created by the gap-down move of the week of August 22, 2022 Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K crossed below the %D; RSI-9 is around 60 The week was down -46.02 or 11.1%; the 5-week ATR  is 139.46 A down week, second in the last five weeks, and sixth  in the previous ten weeks; The weekly pivot point=4109.26, R1=4157.74, R2=4225.01; S1=4041.99, S2=3993.51; No pivot levels were breached Above 10-week EMA and 39-week SMA; below 89-week SMA Uptrend
Daily	A relatively large green candle with almost no upper and lower shadows that gapped up a bit; Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossed above %D; RSI-9 has turned up above 60; below 8-DMA Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA, and 200-day SMA; Uptrend
2-Hour (E-mini futures)	The uptrend since January 19, with higher highs and higher lows, was tested on Friday, when the futures came close to the last higher low of 4048.50; futures bounced up from a low of 4060.75 at 6:00 AM on Friday and are nearly 100 points higher; just below an uptrend line from February 2 high. RSI-21 is above 75 Above EMA20, but  below EMA10 of EMA50 Bias:  Side-Up
30-Minute (E-mini futures)	Rising since 7:30 AM on Friday – up more than 100 points to 4160.00 level RSI-21 is moving around 70 Above EMA20, which is Above EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Up
15-Minute (E-mini futures)	The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving sideways to up since 3:00 PM The Bollinger Band is a bit expanded, and the price is declining to the middle band from the upper band. Bias: Up-Side

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed higher on Monday, February 13, in mixed volume. S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite traded in lower volume.

The major indices opened higher and traded higher for the rest of the day. After only a brief retracement, most indices made a 3-day Morning Star pattern. All but one S&P sector – Energy – closed higher.

From Briefing.com:

[…] Today’s advance was broad in nature. Advancers led decliners by a greater than 3-to-1 margin at the NYSE and a 3-to-2 margin at the Nasdaq. Ten of the 11 S&P 500 sectors logged gains today led by the heavily weighted information technology (+1.8%) and consumer discretionary (+1.5%) sectors. The energy sector (-0.6%) was the lone laggard in negative territory. […] The 2-yr Treasury note yield, which is most sensitive to changes in the fed funds rate, rose three basis points 4.54%. The 10-yr note yield fell three basis points to 3.72%. Nasdaq Composite: +13.6% YTD Russell 2000: +10.2% YTD S&P Midcap 400: +9.9% YTD S&P 500: +7.8% YTD Dow Jones Industrial Average: +3.3% YTD […] Overseas:  Europe: DAX +0.6%, FTSE +0.8%, CAC +1.1% Asia: Nikkei -0.9%, Hang Seng -0.1%, Shanghai +0.7% Commodities:  Crude Oil +0.44 @ 80.10 Nat Gas -0.12 @ 2.41 Gold -10.20 @ 1863.70 Silver -0.17 @ 21.88 Copper +0.05 @ 4.07