Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are down a bit at 8:00 AM; bounced up almost 20 points since 6:30 AM
• The odds are for a down day with an equal chance of an up move from the pre-open levels around 4025.00 with elevated volatility – watch for a break above 4041.50 for a change of sentiments
• The major economic data report is due during the day:
  • Employment Cost Index ( 1.1% est.; prev. 1.2%) at 8:30 AM
  • S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI ( 6.8% est.; prev. 8.6%) at 9:00 AM
  • HPI ( -0.4% est.; prev. 0.0%) at 9:00 AM
  • Chicago PMI ( 45.1 est.; prev. 44.9) at 9:45 AM
  • CB Consumer Confidence ( 109.1 est.; prev. 108.3) at 10:00 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Weekly: Uptrend Daily: Uptrend 120-Min: Down

30-Min: Down 15-Min: Down 6-Min:  Down

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4005.28, 3984.20, and 3978.27
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4015.55, 4029.80, and 4042.26
• The key levels for E-mini futures are a break above 4041.50, the high at 3:00 AM, and a break below 4007.50, the low at 6:30 AM

Pre-Open

• On Monday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2023) closed at 4033.25, and the index closed at 4017.77 – a spread of about +15.75 points; the futures closed at 4032.50; the fair value is +0.75
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were lower at 8:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -4.75, Dow by -50, and NASDAQ by -32.50

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mostly lower – Mumbai closed up
• European markets are mostly lower – Italy is up
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

Up	Down
EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF AUD/USD NZD/USD	Dollar index USD/CAD INR/USD

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are lower
  • Precious metals are mixed
  • Industrial metals are lower
  • Soft commodities are mostly higher
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.551, up +1.6 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 3.660%, up +1.3 basis points;
  • The 2-year yield is at 4.253%, up +4.2 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.702, up from -0676
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.109, down from 0.112
• VIX
  • At 20.61 @ 6:45 AM; up from the last close; above the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 23.76 on January 3; low = 17.97 on January 27
  • Sentiment: Risk-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Weekly:	The week ending on January 2 was a Bullish Engulfing candle following a small red Harami candle breaking above the downtrend line from an all-time high made in the last week of December 2021 Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is above %D; RSI-9 is around 60 The week was up +104.01 or +2.7%; the 5-week ATR  is 142.86 An up week, third in the last five weeks, and fifth in the previous ten weeks; The weekly pivot point=4037.94, R1=4126.83, R2=4183.09; S1=3981.68, S2=3892.79; R1/R2 pivot levels were breached Above 10-week EMA and 39-week SMA; below 89-week SMA Uptrend Resumed
Daily	A red candle with a small upper shadow and almost no lower shadow, a three-day Evening Star pattern is emerging just above a downtrend line from the high of January 4, 2022,  Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossed below %D; RSI-9 declined to below 60 from above 70; below 8-DMA Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA, and 200-day SMA; Uptrend
2-Hour (E-mini futures)	Moving down since 4:00 PM on January 27 – declined  almost 100 points from a high near 4110.00; RSI-21 drifted down to just above 30 from 75 and after making a Bearish Divergence Below EMA20, which is below EMA10 of EMA50  Bias:  Down
30-Minute (E-mini futures)	Moving down since 3:00 PM on Friday; RSI-21 has declined to below 40 from near 65 Below EMA20, which is below EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Down
15-Minute (E-mini futures)	The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving down since 7:45 PM on Sunday The Bollinger Band has been expanding since 3:15 AM with price walking down the lower band Bias: Down

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mostly lower Monday, January 30, in mostly lower volume. S&P 500 traded in higher volume.

The major indices gapped down at the open and traded lower for most of the day. All but one S&P sector – Consumer Staples – closed lower.

From Briefing.com:

[…] Investors took a more cautious approach today in front of policy decisions from the Fed, the ECB, and the Bank of England later this week. […] The information technology (-1.9%), communication services (-1.8%), and consumer discretionary (-1.7%) sectors were among the worst performers today. Energy (-2.3%) was the top laggard for the 11 sectors as oil prices faded ahead of the OPEC+ meeting later this week. WTI crude oil futures fell 1.9% to $77.94/bbl. Only one sector — consumer staples (+0.1%) — was able to maintain a slim gain by the close. Nasdaq Composite: +8.9% YTD Russell 2000: +7.3% YTD S&P Midcap 400: +6.8% YTD S&P 500: +4.6% YTD Dow Jones Industrial Average: +1.7% YTD […] Overseas:  Europe: DAX -0.2%, FTSE +0.3%, CAC -0.2% Asia: Nikkei +0.2%, Hang Seng -2.7%, Shanghai +0.1% Commodities:  Crude Oil -1.51 @ 77.94 Nat Gas -0.17 @ 2.68 Gold -7.30 @ 1922.30 Silver +0.08 @ 23.69 Copper -0.02 @ 4.20