Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are a bit higher at 9:00 AM; futures moving within a range between 3931.00 and 3910.00 – near the lower end of the range
• The odds are for a sideways to an up day with elevated volatility – watch for a break below 3911.00 for clarity
• The major economic data report is due during the day:
  • Existing Home Sales ( 3.95M est.; prev. 4.09M ) at 10:00 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Weekly: In Correction Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure 120-Min: Down-Side

30-Min: Side 15-Min: Side 6-Min:  Side

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3897,70, 3885.54, and 3877.29
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 3915.45, 3926.59, and 3952.49
• The key levels for E-mini futures are a break above 3931.00, the high at 8:00 AM, and a break below 3911.75, the low at 5:00 AM

Pre-Open

• On Thursday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2023) closed at 3916.75, and the index closed at 3898.85 – a spread of about +18.00 points; the futures closed at 3915.50; the fair value is +0.75
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were mixed – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +8.00, Dow down by -30, and NASDAQ up by +64.25

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Mumbai closed lower
• European markets are higher
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

Up	Down
EUR/USD GBP/USD AUD/USD NZD/USD	Dollar index USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD INR/USD

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are mixed
  • Precious metals are higher
  • Industrial metals are mostly higher
  • Soft commodities are mixed
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.437, down -28.3 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 3.597%, down -20.1 basis points;
  • The 2-year yield is at 4.140%, down -32.6 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.703, up from -0.746
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.160, up from 0.078
• VIX
  • At 20.46 @ 8:00 AM; down from the last close; above the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 23.76 on January 3; low = 18.01 on January 13
  • Sentiment: Risk-On-to-Neutral

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Weekly:	The week ending on January 13 was a green candle with a small lower shadow and almost no upper shadow Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is above %D; near 70; RSI-9 is above 55 The week was up +104.01 or +2.7%; the 5-week ATR  is 142.86 An up week, second in the last five weeks, and fifth  in the previous ten weeks; The weekly pivot point=3960.11, R1=4042.93, R2=4086.77; S1=3916.27, S2=3833.45; R1/R2 pivot levels were breached Above 10-week EMA and 39-week SMA; below 89-week SMA Under Pressure
Daily	A red spinning top candle that gapped down Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is below %D; RSI-9 is near 45; below 8-DMA Below 20-day EMA and 50-day EMA; above 100-day SMA; below 200-day SMA; Uptrend Under Pressure
2-Hour (E-mini futures)	Moving sideways since 4:00 PM on January 19 around 3910.00 after declining from 400. on Wednesday RSI-21 is around 35 Below EMA20, which is below EMA10 of EMA50  Bias:  Down-Side
30-Minute (E-mini futures)	Moving sideways since 3:00 PM on Thursday between 3944.00 and 3900.00, near the middle of the range RSI-21 is moving around just below 50 Above EMA20, but at/below EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Side
15-Minute (E-mini futures)	The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving sideways since 9:15 PM The Bollinger Band has been contracting a bit since 7:30 AM Bias: Side

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed lower on Thursday, January 19, in mostly lower volume. Russell 2000 traded in lower volume. Most major indices made red teardrop spinning top candle candles.

The indices opened down, then turned up after the first four of trading before giving up some of that in the final hour of trading. All but three S&P sectors – Energy, Healthcare, and Communications – closed lower.

From Briefing.com:

[…] Including today’s losses, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are still up 1.6% and 3.7%, respectively, this year. […] Most of the S&P 500 sectors traded down with the industrial (-2.1%) sector showing the steepest loss. Other influential laggards included the consumer discretionary (-1.7%), financial (-1.2%), and information technology (-1.1%) sectors. The energy sector (+1.1%) led the outperformers amid rising oil prices. WTI crude oil futures rose 1.5% to $80.73/bbl. Treasury yields made relatively small upside moves today. The 2-yr note yield rose three basis points to 4.12% and the 10-yr note yield rose two basis points to 3.40%. […] Russell 2000: +4.3% YTD Nasdaq Composite: +3.7% YTD S&P Midcap 400: +3.6% YTD S&P 500: +1.6% YTD Dow Jones Industrial Average: -0.3% YTD Reviewing today’s economic data: Initial jobless claims for the week ending January 14 decreased by 15,000 to 190,000 (Briefing.com consensus 212,000). Continuing jobless claims for the week ending January 7 increased by 17,000 to 1.647 million. […] Total housing starts declined 1.4% month-over-month in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.382 million units (Briefing.com consensus 1.355 million) while total building permits declined 1.6% month-over-month to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 1.330 million (Briefing.com consensus 1.370 million). […] The Philadelphia Fed Index fell to -8.9 in January (Briefing.com consensus -11.0) from -13.8 in December. Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories showed a draw of 82 bcf versus a build of 11 bcf last week. Weekly Crude Oil Inventories showed a build of 8.41 million barrels after a build of 18.96 million barrels last week. […] Overseas:  Europe: DAX -1.7%, FTSE -1.1%, CAC -1.9% Asia: Nikkei -1.4%, Hang Seng -0.1%, Shanghai +0.5% Commodities:  Crude Oil +1.17 @ 80.73 Nat Gas -0.01 @ 3.11 Gold +17.00 @ 1924.30 Silver +0.24 @ 23.89 Copper +0.02 @ 4.24