Morning Notes – Monday, November 28, 2022

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are lower at 8:45 AM, declining since 7:15 AM from 4006.00 after bouncing up from 3992.00 at 5:00 AM, just below 4000.00
  • The odds are for a down day with elevated volatility – watch for a break above 4006.75 and 4018.50 for a change of sentiments;
  • No key economic data report is due during the day:

Directional Bias Before Open:

  • Weekly: Uptrend
  • Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • 120-Min: Up-Side
  • 30-Min: Side-Down
  • 15-Min: Side-Down
  • 6-Min:  DownSide

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3998.66, 3986.77, and 3970.84
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4007.98, 4018.17, and 4028.85
  • Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 4006.00, the high at 7:15 AM, and a break below 3992.25, the low of 5:00 AM


  • On Friday at 1:00 PM, S&P futures (December 2022) closed at 4033.00, and the index closed at 4026.12 – a spread of about +6.75 points; the futures closed at 4032.50; the fair value is +0.50
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures are lower – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -30.25, Dow by -198, and NASDAQ by -78.50

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed mostly lower – Mumbai closed up
  • European markets are lower
  • Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
Up Down
  • Dollar index
  • Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
    • Energy futures are mixed
    • Precious metals are lower
    • Industrial metals are lower
    • Soft commodities are mostly lower
  • Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
    • The 10-year yield closed at 3.672%, down -14.1 basis points from two weeks ago;
    • The 30-year is at 3.710%, down -34.8 basis points;
    • The 2-year yield is at 4.509%, up +18.5 basis points;
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.837, down from -0.511
    • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.038, down from 0.245
  • VIX
    • At 22.23 @ 8:00 AM; up from the last close; above the 5-day SMA;
    • Recent high = 26.59 on November 10; low = 20.31 on November 24
    • Sentiment: Risk-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

  • The week ending on November 25 was a green candle following a Doji, indicating a bullish turn following an indecisive week
    • Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is above %D near 90;
    • RSI-9 is above 55
  • The week was up +60.78 or +1.5%; the 5-week ATR  is 171.53
  • An up week, third in the last five weeks, and fifth in the previous ten weeks;
  • The weekly pivot point=3997.83, R1=402.31, R2=4098.51; S1=3961.63, S2=3897.15; T1 pivot level was breached
  • Above 10-week EMA, below 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend
  • A small Doji candle near the high close of the previous day; the trading day was short following the Thanksgiving Holiday.
    • Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is above %D
    • RSI-9 turned above 60; above 8-day EMA;
  • Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, and 100-day SMA; below 200-day SMA;
  • Confirmed Uptrend
2-Hour (E-mini futures)
  • Moving up since 2:00 AM on Tuesday following a  sideways move; at the upper bound of a trading range between 4015.00 and 3930.00
    • RSI-21 is above 75
    • Above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Up-Side
30-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • Moving sideways to down since 6:00 PM on Sunday following a gap-down open for the week.
    • RSI-21 is moving up since 12:00 AM; Bullish Divergence at 4:30AM
    • At/below EMA20, which is below EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Side-Down
15-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving sideways since 4:00 AM
  • The Bollinger Band has been contracting a bit since 8:00 AM, with the price rising up to the middle band
  • Bias: Side-Down

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mostly higher on the shortened trading day of Friday, November 25, following the Thanksgiving Holiday. The major indices opened higher and then mostly traded sideways for the rest of the day.

For the week, the major indices rose on only three-half-day trading. The exchanges n the Ais were mixed, and the European markets were up. The dollar index was down for the week. The energy commodities, metals, and soft commodities were mixed. The US Treasury yields closed down for the week, and all S&P sectors were up.



The stock market ended this holiday-shortened session on a mixed note, but overall, things held up pretty well.


None of the 11 sectors moved more than 0.7% in either direction.


On the flip side, the real estate (+0.6%) and utilities (+0.6%) sectors sat atop the leaderboard.

Treasury yields climbed off overnight lows today. The 10-yr note yield, which hit 3.65% overnight, sits at 3.71% now. The 2-yr note yield, which hit 4.43% overnight, sits at 4.48% now.

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: -5.5% YTD
  • S&P Midcap 400: -10.4% YTD
  • Russell 2000: -17.1% YTD
  • S&P 500: -15.5% YTD
  • Nasdaq Composite: -28.2% YTD
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