Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are higher at 8:45 AM, broke above a Horizontal Channel at 8:00 AM – the 61.8% extension target near 3983.96 is achieved, and the 100% extension target is near 3992.75;
• The odds are for an up day with elevated volatility – watch for a break below 3964.75 and 3956.50 for clarity;
• The key economic data report is due during the day:
  • Richmond Manufacturing Index ( -9 est.; prev -10) at 10:00 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Weekly: Uptrend Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure 120-Min: Up-Side

30-Min: Side 15-Min: Side 6-Min:  Side-Up

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3960.36, 3945.24, and 3933.34
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 3974.87, 3979.89 and 3983.09
• Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 3975.75, the high at 8:15 AM, and a break below 3964.75, the low of 7:15 AM

Pre-Open

• On Monday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (December 2022) closed at 3958.00, and the index closed at 3949.94 – a spread of about +8.00 points; the futures closed at 3958.00; the fair value is +0.00
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures are higher – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +13.75, Dow by +115, and NASDAQ by +28.75

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Hong Kong and Seoul closed lower
• European markets are mostly higher – Switzerland is lower
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

Up	Down
EUR/USD GBP/USD AUD/USD NZD/USD	Dollar index USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD INR/USD

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are lower
  • Precious metals are mixed
  • Industrial metals are lower
  • Soft commodities are mostly lower
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.810%, down -40.4 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 3.895%, down -41.8 basis points;
  • The 2-year yield is at 4.521%, down -18.4 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.711, down from -0.491
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.085, up from 0.099
• VIX
  • At 22.26 @ 8:00 AM; down from the last close; below the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 26.59 on November 10; low = 22.37 on November 11
  • Sentiment: Risk-On

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Weekly:	The week ending on November 18 was a Doji with the real body just below the previous week’s close; Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is above %D; RSI-9 is above 50 The week was down -27.59 or -0.7%; the 5-week ATR  is 187.34 A down week, second in the last five weeks, and sixth in the previous ten weeks; The weekly pivot point=3966.91, R1=4027.274, R2=4089.21; S1=3904.97, S2=3844.616; No pivot levels were breached Below 10-week EMA, 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA Uptrend Resumed
Daily	A small red candle with a long lower shadow and a small upper shadow; the past few days’ price action has been sideways to down. Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is below %D RSI-9 is around 60; above 8-day EMA; Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, and 100-day SMA; below 200-day SMA; Confirmed Uptrend
2-Hour (E-mini futures)	Moving sideways since 2:00 PM on November 17 between 3940.00 ad 3980.00 RSI-21 has been moving up since 10:00 AM on November 21; above 60 At/above EMA20, which is at/above EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Up-Side
30-Minute (E-mini futures)	Moving within a Horizontal Channel between 4020.00 and 3940.00 since 3:30 PM on November 10, near the lower bound of the range RSI-21 is moving around 50 At/above EMA20, which is at/below EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Side
15-Minute (E-mini futures)	The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving sideways to up since 12:00 PM on Monday. The Bollinger Band has been expanding a bit since 4:00 AM Bias: Side

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mostly lower on Monday, November 21, in mixed volume. Dow Jones Transportation Average closed higher in higher volume. Dow Jones Industrial Average also traded in higher volume.

The day’s price action was subdued and mostly sideways after the initial decline. The equities have mostly moved sideways to down over the past few days.

From Briefing.com:

[…] The stock market kicked off this holiday-shortened week on a softer note. The major indices were able to recover from heavier losses, but still closed in negative territory. […] Mega cap stocks and semiconductor names were among today’s biggest laggards. The PHLX Semiconductor closed down 1.8% and the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK) closed down 1.1% while the S&P 500 sported a more modest 0.4% loss. […] Four of the 11 S&P 500 sectors closed in the red. Consumer discretionary (-1.4%) and energy (-1.4%) showed the steepest losses while consumer staples (+1.0%) and real estate (+0.7%) led the outperformers. […] Dow Jones Industrial Average: -7.3% YTD S&P Midcap 400: -11.9% YTD Russell 2000: -18.1% YTD S&P 500: -17.1% YTD Nasdaq Composite: -29.5% YTD Overseas:  Europe: DAX -0.4%, FTSE -0.1%, CAC -0.2% Asia: Nikkei +0.2%, Hang Seng -1.9%, Shanghai -0.4% Commodities:  Crude Oil -0.01 @ 80.12 Nat Gas +0.46 @ 7.22 Gold -10.40 @ 1739.70 Silver -0.07 @ 20.82 Copper -0.06 @ 3.57