Morning Notes – Monday, November 7, 2022

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are higher at 9:00 AM; moving sideways to up since 4:00 AM near a resistance level around 3805.00
  • The odds are for an up day with elevated volatility – watch for a break above 3805.00 and a break below 3784.75 for clarity
  • No key economic data report is due during the day:

Directional Bias Before Open:

  • Weekly: Uptrend
  • Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • 120-Min: Side-Up
  • 30-Min: Side-Up
  • 15-Min: Side-Up
  • 6-Min:  Up-Side

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3749.01, 3727.71, and 3708.84
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 3796.34, 3801.50, and 3839.89
  • Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 3805.00, the high at 7:15 AM on November 3, and a break below 3784.75, the low of 8:45 AM


  • On Friday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (December 2022) closed at 3780.25, and the index closed at 3770.55 – a spread of about +10.25 points; the futures closed at 3779.50; the fair value is -0.75
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures are higher – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +11.75, Dow by +110, and NASDAQ by +39.00

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed higher
  • European markets are mostly higher – the UK and Switzerland are lower
  • Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
Up Down
  • Dollar index
  • Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
    • Energy futures are higher
    • Precious metals are higher
    • Industrial metals are mostly higher
    • Soft commodities are mixed
  • Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
    • The 10-year yield closed at 4.167%, down -4.6 basis points from two weeks ago;
    • The 30-year is at 4.239%, down -6.6 basis points;
    • The 2-year yield is at 4.692%, up +18.8 basis points;
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.525, down from -0.291
    • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.072, up from -0.092
  • VIX
    • At 25.37 @ 8:15 AM; up from the last close; a/below the 5-day SMA;
    • Recent high = 34.88 on September 28; low = 22.64 on September 9
    • Sentiment: Risk-Neutral

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

  • The week ending on November 4 was a large red Harami candle with open and close near the previous week’s open and close and with small upper and lower shadows
    • Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is crossing below %D;
    • RSI-9 is near 45
  • The week was down -130.51 or -3.3%; the 5-week ATR  is 199.77
  • A down week; second in the last five weeks, and sixth in the previous ten weeks;
  • The weekly pivot point=3793.50, R1=3888.84, R2=4007.14; S1=3675.20, S2=3579.86; S1 pivot level was breached
  • At/below 10-week EMA; below 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend Resumed
  • A Doji with lone shadows;
    • Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is crossing above %D
    • RSI-9 turned up around 0; below 8-day EMA;
  • At/below 20-day EMA; below 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA, and 200-day SMA;
  • Uptrend Under Pressure
2-Hour (E-mini futures)
  • Moving up since 10:00 AM on November 3; up more than 100 points from a low of 3704.25
    • RSI-21 is near 60 from near 10
    • Above EMA10 of EMA50, which is above EMA20
  • Bias: Side-Up
30-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • Finding resistance at the upper bound of an Ascending triangle – a break above 3805.50 will have the 61.8% extension target near 3864.00 and the 100% extension target near 3900.00
    • RSI-21 is near 55
    • Above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Side-Up
15-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been drifting up since 10:00 PM
  • The Bollinger Band has been contracting since 8:00 AM, with the price near the lower and
  • Bias:  Side-Up

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed higher on Friday, November 4, in mixed volume. Dow Jones Transportation Average and Russell 200 traded in lower volume. The major indices opened higher and then moved down during the mid-day trading after moving up in the morning session. The indices moved up again in the late afternoon session.

For the week, the major indices closed lower in higher volume. the markets in Europe and Asia closed higher. The dollar index was, and so were most of the commodities. The US Treasury yields closed up.



Today’s trade started and ended on an upbeat note. Most of the session in between, however, saw the major averages trading with modest losses.


The 10-yr note yield fell to 4.12% when the major averages hit session highs and rose to 4.17% when the stock market was at its lows. The 2-yr note yield hit 4.65% when stocks hit their highs and rose to 4.70% while stocks fell. Ultimately, the 10-yr note yield and the 2-yr note yield settled at 4.16% and 4.67%, respectively.

  • October Nonfarm Payrolls 261K ( consensus 220K); Prior was revised to 315K from 263K; October Nonfarm Private Payrolls 233K ( consensus 225K); Prior was revised to 319K from 288K; October Avg. Hourly Earnings 0.4% ( consensus 0.3%); Prior 0.3%; October Unemployment Rate 3.7% ( consensus 3.6%; Prior 3.5%; October Average Workweek 34.5 ( consensus 34.5); Prior 34.5

Dow Jones Industrial Average: -10.8% YTD
S&P Midcap 400: -15.3% YTD
S&P 500: -20.9% YTD
Russell 2000: -19.8% YTD
Nasdaq Composite: -33.0% YTD

Print Friendly, PDF & Email