Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are lower at 8:45 AM; moved down more than 50 points since 6:00 AM;
• The odds are for a down day with elevated volatility – watch for a break above 3722.00 and a break above 3739.25 for a change of sentiments
• The key economic data report is due during the day:
  • Philly Fed Manufacturing Index ( -8.7 vs. -5.0 est.; prev. -9.9 ) at 8:30 AM
  • Unemployment Claims ( 214L vs. 229K est.; prev. 22K) at 8:30 AM
  • Existing Home Sales ( 4.69M est.; prev. 4.80M) at 10:00 AM
  • CB Leading Index ( -0.3% est.; prev. -0.3% ) at 10:00 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure Daily: Correction 120-Min: Down-Side

30-Min: Side-Down 15-Min: Down-Side 6-Min:  Down

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3684.61, 3666.51, and 3657.48
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 3696.95, 3717.35, and 3732.65
• Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 3729.50, the high at 8:30 AM, and a break below 3680.25, the low of 3:30 AM

Pre-Open

• On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (December 2022) closed at 3707.00, and the index closed at 3695.16 – a spread of about +11.75 points; the futures closed at 3707.25; the fair value is -0.25
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures are lower – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -10.00, Dow by -10, and NASDAQ by -64.25

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mostly lower – Mumbai closed higher
• European markets are mixed – Germany, the UK, Switzerland, and STOXX 600 are lower; France, Spain, and Italy are higher
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

Up	Down
Dollar index USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD INR/USD	EUR/USD GBP/USD AUD/USD NZD/USD

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are lower
  • Precious metals are lower
  • Industrial metals are lower
  • Soft commodities are mixed
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 4.157%, up +39.8 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 4.159%, up +39.4 basis points;
  • The 2-year yield is at 4.554%, up +41.6 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.397, down from -0.379
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.002, down from 0.006
• VIX
  • At 30.90 @ 8:45 AM; up from the last close; at/below the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 34.88 on September 28; low = 28.50 on October 5
  • Sentiment: Risk-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Weekly:	The week ending on October 14 was a red Spinning Top with upper and lower shadows bigger than the real body; at/below a support level around the low of June 13 week Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is above %D; around ten RSI-9 is just below 35 The week was down -56.59 or -1.6%; the 5-week ATR  is 227.22 A down week; fourth in the last five weeks, and seventh in the previous ten weeks; The weekly pivot point=3595.55, R1=3699.52, R2=3815.97; S1=3479.10, S2=3375.13; S1 pivot level was breached Below 10-week EMA, 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA Uptrend Under Pressure
Daily	A small Doji candle with a real body within the lower shadow of the previous day Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is above %D; RSI-9 is just above 50; above 8-day EMA; Below 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA, and 200-day SMA; In Correction
2-Hour (E-mini futures)	Retreating from near the top of a Horizontal Channel between 3820.00 and 3570.00 to its middle; RSI-21 has bounced up to above 50 from around 35 At/above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Down-Side
30-Minute (E-mini futures)	Breaking above a downtrend line from the high of 9:30 PM on October 18 after retracing the 38.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the advance from October 13 lows of 3502.00 RSI-21 is around 40 At/below EMA20, which is below EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Side-Down
15-Minute (E-mini futures)	The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is drifting down since 10:00 PM on Tuesday The Bollinger Band is expanding since 6:30 AM, with the price drifting down to the middle band from the upper band Bias:  Down-Side

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed lower on Wednesday, October 19, in mostly lower volume. Dow Jones Transportation Average traded in lower volume. The major indices moved higher a bit n the early trading before turning around and mostly drifting lower for the rest of the day.

From Briefing.com:

[…] The major averages spent some time in positive territory this morning, but were in the red most of the session, ultimately closing off session lows. […] The 10-yr note yield rose 13 basis points to 4.13%, its highest level since 2008, and the 2-yr note yield rose 12 basis points to 4.56%. […] The remaining ten sectors all logged losses on the day. The information technology sector (-0.3%) exhibited a slimmer loss than the S&P 500 (-0.7%) thanks to some relative strength in the semiconductor space. […] Weekly MBA Mortgage Application Index declined 4.5% after a 2.0% decline Total housing starts declined 8.1% month-over-month in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.439 million units (Briefing.com consensus 1.465 million). Building permits rose 1.4% month-over-month to 1.564 million (Briefing.com consensus 1.550 million). […] Dow Jones Industrial Average: -16.3% YTD S&P Midcap 400: -19.1% YTD S&P 500: -22.5% YTD Russell 2000: -23.1% YTD Nasdaq Composite: -31.7% YTD Overseas:  Europe: DAX -0.2%, FTSE -0.2%, CAC -0.4% Asia: Nikkei +0.4%, Hang Seng -2.4%, Shanghai -1.2% Commodities:  Crude Oil +2.16 @ 84.38 Nat Gas -0.28 @ 5.45 Gold -24.00 @ 1633.30 Silver -0.29 @ 18.34 Copper -0.05 @ 3.31