Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are lower at 8:30 AM; moving lower since 4:00 AM – down more than 25 points
• The odds are for a down day with elevated volatility – watch for a break above 3923.25 for a change of sentiments
• The key economic data report due during the day:
  • Beige Book at 2:00 PM
  • Many speeches by FOMC members

Directional Bias Before Open:

Weekly: Uptrend Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure 120-Min: Down

30-Min: Down 15-Min: Down-Side 6-Min:  Side-Down

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3894.60, 3886.75, and 3860.73
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 3914.54, 3922.59, and 3940.67
• Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 3909.75, the high at 8:00 AM and a break below 3893.75, the low at 3:30 AM

Pre-Open

• On Tuesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (September 2022) closed at 3911.00, and the index closed at 3908.19 – a spread of about +2.75 points; the futures closed at 3910.50; the fair value is +0.50
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures are lower – at 8:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -11.00, Dow by -61, and NASDAQ by -27.00

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mostly lower –  Shanghai closed up
• European markets are lower
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

Up	Down
Dollar index USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD INR/USD	EUR/USD GBP/USD AUD/USD NZD/USD

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are lower
  • Precious metals are lower
  • Industrial metals are mostly lower
  • Soft commodities are mostly higher
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.340%, up +28.6 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 3.482%, up +22.6 basis points;
  • The 2-year yield is at 3.414%, up +12.9 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.074, up from -0.231
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.142, down from 0.202
• VIX
  • At 26.9 @ 7:45 AM; down from the last close; above the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 27.69 on August 30; low = 23.19 on September 2
  • Sentiment: Risk-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Weekly:	The red candle that gapped down with small lower and upper shadows; Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is below %D just above 30 RSI-9 is just above 40 The week was down -133.40 or -3.3%; the 5-week ATR  is 138.59 A down week; third in the least five weeks and fifth in the previous ten weeks; The weekly pivot point=3963.63, R1=4023.62, R2=4122.97; S1=3864.28, S2=3804.29; S1/S2 pivot levels were breached Above 10-week EMA, below 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA Uptrend Under Pressure
Daily	A relatively small red candle at the uptrend line from the June 17 low and after briefly breaching the 3900.00 level Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crisscrossing %D near ten RSI-9 is below 30; below 8-day EMA; Below 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA, and 200-day SMA; Uptrend Under Pressure
2-Hour (E-mini futures)	Trending down since 2:00 PM on August 16 – lower lows and lower highs; broke below the neckline of a Head-&-Shoulder pattern on August 26 – the 100% extension target near 3894.00 is achieved, and the 161.8% extension target is near 3760.00; RSI-21 is trending down; just above 40 At/below EMA20, which is below EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Down
30-Minute (E-mini futures)	Drifting up since 8:30 PM, forming an up-sloping flag within a downtrend RSI-21 is moving around 40 At/above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Down
15-Minute (E-mini futures)	The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is drifting higher since 1:00 AM The Bollinger Band is expanding a bit since 7:30 AM, with the price falling to the lower band from the upper band Bias: Down-Side

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed lower on Tuesday, September 6, in mixed volume. Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Joens Transportation Average traded in higher volume. The major indices declined from the open and made the day’s low in the first hour of trading, then they mostly fluctuated within a large trading range.

From Briefing.com:

[…] The S&P 500 tested 3,900, where it found upside momentum, bringing the market back to positive territory before giving way to selling pressure once again. The three main indices moved sideways, with modest losses, into the close. The S&P 500 closed just a hair above the key technical level of 3,900. […] Treasury yields hit their highs around midmorning and settled just off those levels. The 2-yr note yield breached 3.50%, rising 11 basis points to 3.51% while the 10-yr note yield rose 13 basis points to 3.33%. […] The US dollar rose sharply today along with market rates. The yen fell to a 24-yr low against the dollar while the euro dropped to a 20-yr low. Selling today was modest but broad based. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK), Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP), and S&P 500 closed down 0.5%, 0.3%, and 0.4%, respectively. […] Decliners led advancers by a greater than 2-to-1 margin at both the NYSE and the Nasdaq. Most S&P 500 sectors closed in the red with communication services (-1.3%) and energy (-1.1%) falling to the bottom of the pack while real estate (+1.0%) and utilities (+0.2%) sat atop the leaderboard. […] The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for August increased to 56.9% (Briefing.com consensus 55.2%) from 56.7% in July. The dividing line between expansion and contraction is 50.0%. The August reading marks the 27th straight month of growth for the services sector. […] The August ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased 56.9% (Briefing.com consensus 55.2%) after the prior increase of 56.7%. Dow Jones Industrial Average: -14.3% YTD S&P 400: -16.3% YTD S&P 500: -18.0% YTD Russell 2000: -20.2% YTD Nasdaq Composite: -26.2% YTD Overseas:  Europe: DAX +0.9%, FTSE +0.2%, CAC +0.2% Asia: Nikkei +0.0%, Hang Seng -0.1%, Shanghai +1.4% Commodities:  Crude Oil +0.06 @ 86.97 Nat Gas -0.56 @ 8.17 Gold -12.70 @ 1712.50 Silver -0.02 @ 17.90 Copper +0.05 @ 3.46