Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are higher at 8:45 AM; the futures are moving down since 2:45 AM  – down more than 30 points from the high of 4187.75
• The odds are for an up day with elevated volatility and with a good chance of a sideways to down move from pre-open levels around 4160.00 – watch for a break above 4172.50 and a break below 4152.25 for clarity
• The key economic data report due during the day:
  • Prelim GDP ( -0.6% vs. -0.7% est.; prev. -0.9% ) at 8:30 AM
  • Unemployment Claims ( 243K vs. 250K est.; prev. 245K ) at 8:30 AM
  • Prelim GDP Price Index ( 8.9% vs. 8.7% est.; prev. 8.7% ) at 8:30 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Weekly: Uptrend Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure 120-Min: Down-Side

30-Min: Side-Up 15-Min: Up 6-Min:  Up-Side

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4150.12, 4136.56, and 4119.97
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4168.36, 4195.08, and 4201.41
• Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 4172.50, the high at 7:15 AM and a break below 4152.25, the low at 11:30 PM

Pre-Open

• On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (September 2022) closed at 4143.75, and the index closed at 4140.77 – a spread of about +3.00 points; the futures closed at 4142.75; the fair value is -1.00
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures are higher – at 7:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +25.00, Dow by +121; and NASDAQ by +102.00

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mostly higher –  Mumbai closed down
• European markets are mostly higher – Switzerland is slower
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

Up	Down
Dollar index USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD INR/USD	EUR/USD GBP/USD AUD/USD NZD/USD

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are higher
  • Precious metals are lower
  • Industrial metals are lower
  • Soft commodities are mixed
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.106%, up +32.0 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 3.321%, up +27.9 basis points;
  • The 2-year yield is at 3.285%, up +7.5 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.179, up from -0.424
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.215, down from 0.256
• VIX
  • At 22.88 @ 6:45 AM; up from the last close; at/above the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 24.86 on August 24; low = 19.12 on August 12
  • Sentiment: Risk-On

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Weekly:	The red candle with no lower shadow and a small upper shadow; Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K crossed below %D from above 90 RSI-9 is turning down just below 60 The week was down -112.41 or -2.6%; the 5-week ATR  is 167.40 A down week; first in the least five weeks and fourth in the previous ten weeks; The weekly pivot point=4220.52, R1=4273.31, R2=4378.06; S1=4115.77, S2=4062.98; S1 pivot level was breached Above 10-week EMA, below 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA Uptrend
Daily	A small Bullish Engulfing candle with a small upper shadow and a smaller lower shadow following a Doji candle; Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossed above %D; from near 0 RSI-9 turned up just above 40; below 8-day EMA; Below 20-day EMA; above 50-day EMA and 100-day SMA; below 200-day SMA; Uptrend Under Pressure
2-Hour (E-mini futures)	Trending down since 2:00 PM on August 16; turning up near a support level around 4110.00 at 2:00 Am on August 24 RSI-21 is bouncing up since 2:00 PM on Monday from near 10; Bullish Divergence on August 24 Above EMA10 of EMA50, which is above EMA20 Bias: Down-Side
30-Minute (E-mini futures)	Downtrend since 2:00 PM on August 16 – lower lows and lower highs; drifting up since 3:30 AM on August 24 RSI-21 has declined to above 50 from above 70 at 3:30 AM At/below EMA20, which is below EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Side-Up
15-Minute (E-mini futures)	The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving up since 2:00 AM on Wednesday The Bollinger Band is contracting a bit since 7:15 AM Bias: Up

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed higher on Wednesday, August 24, in mixed volume. Dow Jones  Industrial Average and S&P 500 traded in higher volume. The day’s price range was narrow. The major indices opened up and drifted sideways to up for the rest of the day. All S&P sectors closed higher.

From Briefing.com:

[…] Advancers led decliners by a 5-to-3 margin at the NYSE and a 14-to-9 margin at the Nasdaq. All 11 S&P 500 sectors closed in the green with gains ranging from +0.04% (information technology) to 1.2% (energy). […] The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK) closed up 0.4% versus a 0.3% gain in the S&P 500. The Russell 3000 Growth Index was up 0.5% and the Russell 3000 Value Index was up 0.3%. Small cap and mid cap stocks stood out as the Russell 2000 (+0.8%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+0.5%) closed ahead of their peers. […] WTI crude oil futures had a volatile session and settled up 1.1% at $94.83/bbl. This propelled the energy sector (+1.2%) to first place on the day. Natural gas futures rose 0.1% to $9.26/mmbtu. […] The 2-yr note yield rose nine basis points to 3.37% while the 10-yr note yield rose five basis points to 3.11%. […] Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index -1.2%; Prior -2.3% July Durable Orders 0.0% (Briefing.com consensus 0.6%); Prior was revised to 2.2% from 1.9%; July Durable Orders, Ex-Transportation 0.3% (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%); Prior 0.3% […] July Pending Home Sales -1.0% (Briefing.com consensus -3.0%); Prior was revised to -8.9% from -8.6% Dow Jones Industrial Average: -9.3% YTD S&P 400: -10.2% YTD S&P 500: -13.1% YTD Russell 2000: -13.8% YTD Nasdaq Composite: -20.5% YTD Overseas:  Europe: DAX +0.2%, FTSE -0.2%, CAC +0.4% Asia: Nikkei -0.5%, Hang Seng -1.2%, Shanghai -1.9% Commodities:  Crude Oil +1.07 @ 94.83 Nat Gas +0.01 @ 9.26 Gold +3.60 @ 1762.90 Silver -0.05 @ 18.93 Copper -0.05 @ 3.64