Morning Notes – Wednesday, June 8, 2022

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are lower at 8:30 AM; moving sideways to down since 2:30 PM on Tuesday between 4164.00 and 4135.00
  • The odds are for a down to sideways day within a narrow range – watch for a break above 4153.50 for a change of sentiments
  • The key economic data report due during the day:
    • Final Wholesale Inventories ( 2.1% est.; prev. 2.1%) at 10:00 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

  • Weekly: In Correction
  • Daily: Uptrend
  • 120-Min: Up-Side
  • 30-Min: Up-Side
  • 15-Min: Side
  • 6-Min: Side

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4137.66, 4110.22, and 4093.53
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4164.86, 4177.51, and 4200.10
  • Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 4153.50, the high at 7:30 AM and a break below 4135.00, the low at 3:00 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Tuesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (June 2022) closed at 4158.75 and the index closed at 4160.68 – a spread of about -2.00 points; futures closed at 4158.75 for the day; the fair value is 0.00
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures are lower – at 8:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -14.00; Dow by -130; and NASDAQ by -34.00

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai, Hong Kong, Tokyo, and Sydney closed higher; Mumbai, Seoul, and Singapore closed lower
  • European markets are lower
  • Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
    Up Down
    • Dollar index
    • GBP/USD
    • USD/JPY
    • USD/CHF
    • AUD/USD
    • NZD/USD
    • INR/USD
    • EUR/USD
    • USD/CAD
  • Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
    • Energy futures are higher
    • Precious metals are mixed
    • Industrial metals are mostly higher
    • Soft commodities are mostly lower
  • Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
    • 10-years yield closed at 2.972%, up +21.2 basis points from two weeks ago;
    • 30-years is at 3.123%, up +15.0 basis points;
    • 2-years yield is at 2.741%, up +24.1 basis points;
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.231, up from 0.260
    • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.151, up from 0.213
  • VIX
    • At 24.47 @ 7:00 AM; up from the last close; below the 5-day SMA;
    • Recent high = 35.48 on May 9; low = 23.88 on June 7
    • Sentiment: Risk-Neutral-On
    • Broke below a symmetrical triangle

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Weekly:
  • The week ending on June 3 was a small red Harami candle near the close of the previous week;
    • Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is above %D following a Bullish Divergence
    • RSI-9 is just above 40
  • The week was down -49.70 or -1.2%; the 5-week ATR  is 235.41
  • A down week; fourth in the least five weeks and eight in the previous ten weeks
  • The weekly pivot point=4119.97, R1=4166.08, R2=4223.63; S1=4062.42, S2=4016.31; No pivot levels were breached
  • Below 10-week EMA and 39-week SMA; at/below 89-week SMA
  • In Correction
Daily
  • A relatively large Bullish Engulfing candle following two Harami candles; the past several days’ price-action is sideways; resistance at around 4160.00, the lows of June 18, 2021
    • Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossed above %D; above 80
    • RSI-9 is near 60; above 8-day EMA;
  • Above 20-day EMA; below 50-day EMA, 200-day SMA, and 100-day SMA;
  • Uptrend
2-Hour (E-mini futures)
  • Moving sideways after breaking above a Horizontal channel bounded between 4055.00 and 3856.00 – the 61.8% extension target is near 4195.00 and the 100% extension target is near 4275.00;
    • RSI-21 is near 60 after declining to 30
    • Above EMA20, which is at/above EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Up-Side
30-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • Drifting sideways to down since 3:30 PM on Tuesday
    • RSI-21 is moving above 50
    • At/above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Up-Side
15-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is drifting sideways to down since 6:15 PM on Tuesday
  • The Bollinger Band is relatively narrow and stable
  • Bias: Side

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed higher on Tuesday, June 7, in mixed volume. Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 traded in higher volume. The major indices gapped down at the open but then started to advance. Most closed near the high of the past few days’ price range. Most made Bullish Engulfing or similar bullish candles. Rusell 2000 is the leader and NASDAQ COmposite is the laggard.

From Briefing.com:

[…]

Soon after the opening bell, the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 were down 0.8%, 1.4%, and 1.0%, respectively. Just as quickly, though, they started to rebound as the CBOE Volatility Index rolled over and investors stepped in to buy on the initial weakness.

[…]

Today’s best-performing sector was the energy sector (+3.1%), which is now up 65.0% for the year. It enjoyed a 1.2% gain in WTI crude futures to $119.60/bbl

[…]

The industrials (+1.4%), health care (+1.3%), information technology (+1.2%), and real estate (+1.2%) sectors all ended with gains in excess of 1.0%.

The only sector that didn’t finish higher was the consumer discretionary sector (-0.4%),

[…]

Advancing issues led declining issues by an 11-to-5 margin at the NYSE and by nearly a 2-to-1 margin at the Nasdaq.

[..]
  • The April trade deficit narrowed nicely to $87.1 billion (Briefing.com consensus -$89.6 billion) from an upwardly revised $107.7 billion (from -$109.8 billion), but it wasn’t for the best of reasons.
  • […]
  • Consumer credit increased by $38.0 billion in April (Briefing.com consensus $34.0 billion). The prior month saw a downward revision to $47.4 bln from $52.4 bln.
[…]
  • Dow Jones industrial Average: -8.6% YTD
  • S&P 400: -9.7% YTD
  • S&P 500: -12.7% YTD
  • Russell 2000: -14.5% YTD
  • Nasdaq Composite: -22.2% YTD

Overseas: 

  • Europe: DAX -0.7%, FTSE -0.1%, CAC -0.7%
  • Asia: Nikkei +0.1%, Hang Seng -0.6%, Shanghai +0.2%

Commodities: 

  • Crude Oil +1.39 @ 119.60
  • Nat Gas flat @ 9.34
  • Gold +8.80 @ 1853.20
  • Silver +0.07 @ 22.18
  • Copper flat @ 4.43
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