Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are lower at 8:45 AM; down more than 50 points since 10:00 PM on Wednesday
• The odds are for a down day with elevated volatility – watch for a break above 3925.00 for a change of sentiments
• The key economic data report is due during the day
  • PPI (0.5% vs. 0.5% est.; prev. 1.4%) at 8:30 AM
  • Core PPI ( 0.4% vs. 0.6% est.; prev. 1.0%) at 8:30 AM
  • Unemployment Claims (203K vs. 190K est.; 203K) at 8:30 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Weekly: In Correction Daily: In Correction 120-Min:  Down

30-Min: Down 15-Min: Down 6-Min: Down

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3880.74, 3870.72, and 3819.25
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 3928.82, 3960.56, and 3990.24
• Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 3925.00, the high at 7:15 AM and a break below 3885.00, the low at 7:45 AM

Pre-Open

• On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (June 2022) closed at 3932.00 and the index closed at 3935.18 – a spread of about -5.25 points; futures closed at 3930.25 for the day; the fair value is +1.75
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures are lower – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -30.00; Dow by -153; and NASDAQ by -178.50

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed lower
• European markets are lower
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
  

  Up	Down
  Dollar index USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD INR/USD	EUR/USD GBP/USD AUD/USD NZD/USD

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are higher
  • Precious metals are lower
  • Industrial metals are mostly lower
  • Soft commodities are mostly lower
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • 10-years yield closed at 2.826%, up +0.8 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • 30-years is at 2.977%, up +6.9 basis points;
  • 2-years yield is at 2.632%, up +7.2 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.202, up from 0.267
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.152, up from 0.090
• VIX
  • At 34.57 @ 8:15 AM; up from the last close; above the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 35.48 on May 9; low = 24.94 on May 4
  • Sentiment: Risk-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Weekly:	The week ending on May 6 was a Doji candle with an upper shadow more than two-and-half times the lower shadow making it a bearish formation Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K turning up from near zero; below %D; RSI-9 is just above 30 The week was down -8.59 or -0.2%; the 5-week ATR  is 185.00 A down week; fifth in the last five weeks, and seventh in the previous ten weeks The weekly pivot point=4164.50, R1=4266.50, R2=4409.65; S1=4021.35, S2=3919.35; R1/S1 pivot levels were breached Below 10-week EMA and 39-week SMA; at/below 89-week SMA In Correction
Daily	A red candle with almost no lower shadow and an upper shadow larger than the real body; Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is below %D; near zero RSI-9 is below 30; below 8-day EMA Below 50-day EMA, 20-day EMA, 200-day SMA, and 100-day SMA; In Correction
2-Hour (E-mini futures)	The downtrend since 12:00 AM on March 30; lower highs and lower lows since April 21; broke below a Horizontal Channel bounded by 4303.75 and 4056.00 – the 61.8% extension target near 3903.00 is achieved, the 100% extension target is near 3809, and the 161.8% extension target is near 3650.00; RSI-21 dropped to around 30 after bouncing up to near 60 from 13 Below EMA20, which is below EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Down
30-Minute (E-mini futures)	Downtrend – lower highs and lower lows RSI-21 is around 40; Below EMA20, which is below EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Down
15-Minute (E-mini futures)	The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is drifting lower since 2:00 AM The Bollinger Band is relatively stable but declining Bias: Down

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed lower on Wednesday, May 11, in mostly higher volume. Dow Jones Transportation Average traded in lower volume.

The major indices opened lower but then turned up in the first hour of trading but then turned around and then traded down for the rest of the day.

From Briefing.com:

The S&P 500 fell 1.7% on Wednesday, […] The Nasdaq Composite (-3.2%) and Russell 2000 (-2.5%) underperformed the benchmark index, with the Nasdaq — having more exposure to the mega-caps — taking the brunt of the damage. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (-1.0%) declined 1.0%. From a sector perspective, the heavily-weighted information technology (-3.3%) and consumer discretionary (-3.6%) sectors both dropped more than 3.0%, […] Three sectors did escape with a gain, namely energy (+1.4%), utilities (+0.8%), and materials (+0.03%), […] The 10-yr yield, which is sensitive to expectations for inflation and economic growth, fell seven basis points to 2.92% after brushing up against 3.08% on the heels of the CPI report. The 2-yr yield, which is most sensitive to changes in the fed funds rate, increased one basis point to 2.64%. The U.S. Dollar Index increased 0.1% to 104.01. […] WTI crude futures, meanwhile, jumped 5.1%, or $5.12, to $105.14/bbl […] Total CPI increased 0.3% month-over-month in April (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%) and core CPI increased 0.6% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%). Total CPI was up 8.3% year-over-year, down from 8.5% year-over-year in March, and core CPI was up 6.2% year-over-year, down from 6.5% year-over-year in March. […] The Treasury Budget showed a $308.2 bln surplus in April versus a $225.5 bln deficit in the same period a year ago. The budget data is not seasonally adjusted, so the April surplus cannot be compared to the March deficit of $192.6 bln. […] The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index increased 2.0% following a 2.5% increase in the prior week. […] Dow Jones Industrial Average -12.4% YTD S&P 500 -17.4% YTD Russell 2000 -23.5% YTD Nasdaq Composite -27.4% YTD Overseas:  Europe: DAX +2.2%, FTSE +1.4%, CAC +2.5% Asia: Nikkei +0.2%, Hang Seng +1.0%, Shanghai +0.8% Commodities:  Crude Oil +5.12 @ 105.14 Nat Gas +0.28 @ 7.72 Gold +9.80 @ 1853.30 Silver +0.06 @ 21.52 Copper +0.03 @ 4.19