Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are a lower at 9:15 AM; moving sideways scene 3:15 AM within a narrow bad;
- The odds are for a down day with a good chance of a sideways move from the pre-open levels – watch for a break above 4300.75 and break below 460.25 for clarity
- Key economic data report due during the day:
- Unemployment Claims ( 200K vs. 180K est.; prev. 180K ) at 8:30 AM
- Prelim Nonfarm Productivity ( -7.5% vs. -5.1% est.; prev. 6.3%) at 8:30 AM
- Prelim Unit Labor Costs ( 11.5% vs. 10.1% est.; prev. 0.9%) at 8:30 AM
Directional Bias Before Open:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4261.63, 4244.29, and 4226.35
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4308.45, 4315.69, and 4330.67
- Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 4275.50, the high at 7:00 AM and a break below 4260.25, the low at 4:45 AM
- On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (June 2022) closed at 4297.00 and the index closed at 4300.17 – a spread of about -3.25 points; futures closed at 4295.25 for the day; the fair value is +1.75
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures are lower – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -25.75; Dow by -152; and NASDAQ by -99.25
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai, Sydney, and Mumbai closed higher; Hong Kong and Singapore closed lower; Tokyo and Seoul were closed for trading
- European markets are higher
- Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
- Dollar index
- Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
- Energy futures are higher
- Precious metals are lower
- Industrial metals are lower
- Soft commodities are mostly lower
- Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
- 10-years yield closed at 2.937%, up +9.7 basis points from two weeks ago;
- 30-years is at 3.021%, up +14.2 basis points;
- 2-years yield is at 2.756%, up +18.7 basis points;
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.181, down from 0.271
- The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.084, up from 0.039
- At 25.79 @ 8:00 AM; up from the last close; below the 5-day SMA;
- Recent high = 36.64 on May 2; low = 19.75 on April 20
- Sentiment: Risk-Off-Neutral
The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:
|2-Hour (E-mini futures)||
|30-Minute (E-mini futures)||
|15-Minute (E-mini futures)||
Major indices opened a bit higher but then drifted lower in the morning session. They then drifted higher sideways until 2:00 PM. Following the FOMC press conference, major indices moved higher and closed near the day’s highs.
The S&P 500 rallied 3.0% on Wednesday after Fed Chair Powell said the Fed was not actively considering hiking rates by 75 basis points in coming meetings. The Nasdaq Composite rose 3.2%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.8%, and the Russell 2000 rose 2.7%.
All 11 S&P 500 sectors closed higher with gains ranging from 1.1% (real estate) to 4.1% (energy). Ten sectors advanced more than 2.0%.[…]
The 2-yr yield, which is sensitive to changes in the fed funds rate, dropped 15 basis points to 2.61%. The 10-yr yield decreased four basis points to 2.92% after topping 3.00% intraday. The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.9% to 102.57. The CBOE Volatility Index fell 13.1% to 25.42.[…]
Separately, WTI crude futures rose 5.2%, or $5.29, to $107.97/bbl[..]
- The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for March decreased to 57.1% (Briefing.com consensus 58.7%) from 58.3% in March. The dividing line between expansion and contraction is 50.0%. The April reading marks the 23rd straight month of growth for the services sector.
- The trade deficit widened to a record $109.8 billion in March (Briefing.com consensus -$97.5 billion) from a downwardly revised $89.8 billion (from $89.2 billion) in February. Exports were $241.7 billion, $12.9 billion more than February exports. Imports were $351.5 billion, $32.9 billion more than February imports.
- The ADP Employment Change report estimated that 247,000 jobs were added to private sector payrolls in April (Briefing.com consensus 390,000). The increase in March was upwardly revised to 479,000 from 455,000.
- The final IHS Markit Services PMI for April increased to 55.6 from 54.7 in the preliminary reading.
- The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index increased 2.5% following an 8.5% decline in the prior week.
- Dow Jones Industrial Average -6.3% YTD
- S&P 500 -9.8% YTD
- Russell 2000 -13.2% YTD
- Nasdaq Composite -17.1% YTD
- Europe: DAX -0.5%, FTSE -0.9%, CAC -1.2%
- Asia: Nikkei market closed, Hang Seng -1.1%, Shanghai market closed
- Crude Oil +5.29 @ 107.97
- Nat Gas +0.50 @ 8.44
- Gold +6.30 @ 1873.80
- Silver -0.07 @ 22.46
- Copper +0.04 @ 4.32