Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are a bit higher at 9:15 AM; drifting up since 6:30 AM
• The odds are for an up day with elevated volatility – watch for a break below 4134.25 for a change of fortunes
• Key economic data report due during the day:
  • JOLTS Job Openings ( 11.19M est.; prev. 11.27 M) at 10:00 AM
  • Factory Orders ( 1.3% est.; prev. -0.5%) at 10:00 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Weekly: In Correction Daily: In Correction 120-Min:  Down

30-Min: Down-Side 15-Min: Side 6-Min: Side

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4127.74, 4105.06, and 4062.32
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4169.81, 4208.43, and 4232.00
• Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 4176.00, the high at 10:30 PM and a break below 4134.25, the low at 6:30 AM

Pre-Open

• On Monday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (June 2022) closed at 4151.50 and the index closed at 4155.38 – a spread of about -4.00 points; futures closed at 4151.00 for the day; the fair value is +0.50
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures are higher – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +8.75; Dow by +42; and NASDAQ by +29.50

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mostly lower – Hong Kong was up; Sydney and Seoul were down; Shanghai, Tokyo, Mumbai, and Singapore were closed for trading
• European markets are lower
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
  

  Up	Down
  Dollar index USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD INR/USD	EUR/USD GBP/USD AUD/USD NZD/USD

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are lower
  • Precious metals are lower
  • Industrial metals are lower
  • Soft commodities are mostly lower
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • 10-years yield closed at 2.996%, up +13.4 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • 30-years is at 3.061%, up +10.8 basis points;
  • 2-years yield is at 2.698%, up +22.9 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.298, down from 0.393
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.065, down from 0.091
• VIX
  • At 32.17 @ 8:00 AM; down from the last close; at the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 37.52 on March 8; low = 19.75 on April 20
  • Sentiment: Risk-On-Neutral

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Weekly:	The week ending on April 29 was a red candle with a small upper shadow and almost no lower shadow; Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is below %D; near zero RSI-9 is near 30 The week was down -139.85 or -3.3%; the 5-week ATR  is 161.91 A down week; fourth in the last five weeks, and sixth in the previous ten weeks The weekly pivot point=4188.22, R1=4252.16, R2=4372.39; S1=4067.99, S2=4004.05; S1 pivot level was breached Below 10-week EMA and 39-week SMA; at/below 89-week SMA In Correction
Daily	A small green Harami candle with a lower shadow almost three times the size of the real body and a small upper shadow; bouncing off a support level Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossed above %D from below 20 RSI-9 is near 35; above 8-day EMA; Bullish Divergence Below 50-day EMA, 20-day EMA, 200-day SMA, and 100-day SMA; In Correction
2-Hour (E-mini futures)	The downtrend since 12:00 AM on March 30; lower highs and lower lows since April 21; broke below an upsloping flag – the 61.8% extension target near 4073.00 is achieved, the 100% extension target is near 3931.00, and the 161.8% extension target is near 3701.00 RSI-21 bounced up to above 50 after making Bullish Diveregcen at 12:00 PM on Monday At/below EMA20, which is below EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Down
30-Minute (E-mini futures)	Moving sideways to up since 3:30 PM on Monday after bouncing up from a support level around 4060.00 RSI-21 is moving just above 50 after making a Bullish Divergence at 2:30 PM on Monday At/above EMA20, which is at/above EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Down-Side
15-Minute (E-mini futures)	The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways to down since 11:15 PM The Bollinger Band is expanding a bit since 6:00 AM – price first walked down the lower band and then bounced up to the upper band Bias: Side

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mostly higher on Monday, May 2, in mixed volume. NYSE Composite closed down. Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 traded in lower volume.

Major indices opened flat and then moved up in the first hour of trading before turning around and breaking below the February low’s support level. They reverse the trend in the least hour of trading and closed higher.

From Briefing.com:

The S&P 500 advanced 0.6% on Monday, overcoming a late 1.7% decline, even as the 10-yr yield reached 3.00% for the first time since December 2018. The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.6%, the Russell 2000 gained 1.0%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.3%. […] A bargain-hunting mindset lifted the S&P 500 information technology (+1.6%), communication services (+2.4%), and consumer discretionary (+1.4%) sectors to the top of the standings, accompanied by the high-flying energy sector (+1.4%). The real estate (-2.6%), consumer staples (-1.3%), utilities (-1.0%), health care (-0.7%), and materials (-0.3%) sectors were the weakest performers. The growth stocks performed fairly well despite the rise in the 10-yr yield, which did settle at 3.00% (up 11 basis points). More surprisingly, the Treasury yield curve steepened (2-yr yield rose 4 bps to 2.73%) despite relatively disappointing manufacturing data out of the U.S. and China. […] WTI crude futures increased 0.1%, or $0.08, to $105.11/bbl. The U.S. Dollar Index increased 0.7% to 103.65. […] The April ISM Manufacturing Index decreased to 55.4% (Briefing.com consensus 57.9%) from 57.1% in March. A number above 50.0% is indicative of expansion. April marked the 23rd consecutive month of expansion in the manufacturing sector, although the April reading is the lowest since July 2020. […] Total construction spending increased 0.1% month-over-month in March (Briefing.com consensus 0.8%) following a 0.5% increase in February. Total private construction increased 0.2% month-over-month while total public construction decreased 0.2%. On a year-over-year basis, total construction spending was up 11.7%. […] The final IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI for April decreased to 59.2 from 59.7 in the preliminary reading. […] Dow Jones Industrial Average -9.0% YTD S&P 500 -12.8% YTD Russell 2000 -16.1% YTD Nasdaq Composite -19.9% YTD Overseas:  Europe: DAX -1.1%, FTSE closed for holiday, CAC -1.7% Asia: Nikkei -0.1%, Hang Seng closed for holiday, Shanghai closed for holiday Commodities:  Crude Oil +0.08 @ 105.11 Nat Gas +0.23 @ 7.62 Gold -48.50 @ 1862.80 Silver -0.52 @ 22.59 Copper -0.14 @ 4.27