Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are higher at 8:30 AM; breaking above a horizontal channel – 61.8% extension target is near 4408.00 and the 100% extension target is near 4416.00
• The odds are for an up day with elevated volatility; watch for a break below 4367.50 for a change of sentiments
• Key economic data report due during the day:
  • Unemployment Claims ( 215K vs. 223K est.; prev 233K) at 8:17 AM
  • Revised Nonfarm Productivity (6.6% vs. 6.6% est.; prev. 6.6%) at 8:30 AM
  • Revised Unit Labor Costs ( 0.9% vs. 0.3% est.; prev. 0.3%) at 8:30 AM
  • Semi-annual testimony of the Fed Chair to the Congress at 10:00 AM
  • ISM Services PMI ( 61.2 est.; prev. 59.9) at 10:00 AM
  • Factory Orders ( 0.8% est.; prev. -0.4% ) at 10:00 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Weekly: In Correction Daily: In Correction 120-Min: Down-Side

30-Min: Up-Side 15-Min:  Up-Side 6-Min: Side-Up

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4384.09, 4343.89, and 4322.24
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4408.79, 4429.68, and 4456.06
• Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 4399.25, the high of 3:45 PM on Tuesday, and break below 4367.50, the low of 6:30 AM

Pre-Open

• On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2022) closed at 4381.50 and the index closed at 4386.54 – a spread of about -5.00 points; futures closed at 4381.75 for the day; the fair value is -0.25
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures are higher – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +9.00; Dow by +108; and NASDAQ by +17.75

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mostly lower – Sydney and Seoul closed higher
• European markets are mostly higher -Italy and Switzerland are down
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
  

  Up	Down
  Dollar index AUD/USD NZD/USD USD/CAD INR/USD	EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are higher
  • Precious metals are higher
  • Industrial metals are higher
  • Soft commodities are mostly higher
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • 10-years yield closed at 1.707%, down -33.8 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • 30-years is at 2.104%, down -25.8 basis points;
  • 2-years yield is at 1.349%, down -22.2 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.358, down from 0.474
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.397, up from 0.317
• VIX
  • At 30.42 @ 8:15 AM; down from the last close; at/below the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 37.79 on February 24; low = 23.88 on February 16
  • Sentiment: Risk-Off (High Volatility)

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Monthly	December 2021 was a green candle that opened above the previous week’s real-body and closed higher with a small upper shadow and a slightly longer lower shadow; at all-time highs Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossed above %D; above 90; RSI-9 is turning up from above 75; Above the upper band of a 120-month regression channel; Confirmed Uptrend: sequence of higher highs and higher lows
Weekly:	The week ending on February 25 was a  green Hammer with a large lower shadow Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K crossed above %D from near 20; potential Bullish Divergence RSI-9 is just below 40 The week was up +35.78 or +0.8%; the 5-week ATR  is 206.71 An up week; third in the last five weeks, and fifth in the previous ten weeks The weekly pivot point=4294.88, R1=4475.11, R2=4565.57; S1=4206.42, S2=4024.19; S1/S2/S3 pivot levels were breached Below 10-week EMA and 39-week SMA; above 89-week SMA In Correction
Daily	A green candle that opened near the middle of the previous day’s real body and closed above its high; almost no lower shadow and a small upper shadow; Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossed above %D; near 80 RSI-9 is turned up to just below 50; above 8-day EMA; Below 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA, 200-day SMA In Correction
2-Hour (E-mini futures)	Downtrend since 4:00 AM on January 4; bouncing up from the February 24 low of 4101.75; broke below a not-so-perfect upsloping flag at 4:00 PM on February 11 – the 61.8% extension target near 4208 is achieved and the 100% extension target is near 3977.38; RSI-21 is just above 65 Above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Down-Side
30-Minute (E-mini futures)	Moving sideways to up  since 9:30 AM on February 28; RSI-21 is moving up; just below 60 Above EMA20, which is at/above EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Side-Up
15-Minute (E-mini futures)	The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is drifting sideways to up since 9:30 PM The Bollinger Band is starting to expand since 7:15 AM with price walking up the upper band Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crisscrossing %D upper; Bias: Up-Side

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed higher on Wednesday, March 2, in mostly lower volume. NASDAQ Composite traded in higher volume. Major indices opened higher and then moved higher in the morning before moving sideways in the afternoon.

From Briefing.com:

The S&P 500 advanced 1.9% on Wednesday, as stocks rallied past another spike in oil prices amid hope surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict and a potentially less-hawkish Fed. WTI crude futures topped $110 per barrel ($111.04, +7.61, +7.4%). The Nasdaq Composite (+1.6%) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (+1.8%) both looked up to the benchmark index while the Russell 2000 outperformed with a 2.5% gain. All 11 S&P 500 sectors closed higher, and 29 of the 30 Dow components closed higher. The cyclical financials (+2.6%), energy (+2.2%), materials (+2.2%), and industrials (+2.2%) sectors each rose more than 2.0%, as did the information technology sector (+2.2%). The communication services sector (+0.7%) underperformed on a relative basis. […] The 2-yr yield jumped 22 basis points to 1.52%, and the 10-yr yield jumped 16 basis points to 1.87%. The U.S. Dollar Index dipped 0.1% to 97.34. […] The ADP Employment Change report estimated that 475,000 jobs were added to private sector payrolls in February (Briefing.com consensus 350,000). The increase in January was upwardly revised to 509,000 from -301,000. Weekly crude oil inventories decreased by 2.6 mln barrels after increasing by 4.5 mln barrels during the previous week. The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index decreased 0.7% following a 13.1% decline in the prior week. […] Dow Jones Industrial Average -6.7% YTD S&P 500 -8.0% YTD Russell 2000 -8.3% YTD Nasdaq Composite -12.1% YTD Overseas:  Europe: DAX +0.7%, FTSE +1.4%, CAC +1.6% Asia: Nikkei -1.7%, Hang Seng -1.8%, Shanghai -0.1% Commodities:  Crude Oil +7.61 @ 111.04 Nat Gas +0.21 @ 4.79 Gold -21.60 @ 1923.00 Silver -0.30 @ 25.25 Copper +0.09 @ 4.68