Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are lower at 8:30 AM; moving sideways  to down since 10:00 PM
• The odds are for a down day with elevated volatility; watch for a break above 4164.00 for a change of sentiments
• Key economic data report due during the day:
  • Prelim GDP ( 7.0% vs. 7.0% est.; prev. 6.9%) at 8:30 AM
  • Unemployment Claims ( 232K vs. 233K est.; prev. 248K) at 8:30 AM
  • Prelim GDP Price Index ( 7.1% vs. 6.9% est.; prev. 6.9%) at 8:30 AM
  • New Home Sales ( 800K est.; prev. 811K) at 10:00 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Weekly: In Correction Daily: In Correction 120-Min: Down

30-Min: Down 15-Min:  Down 6-Min: Down-Side

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4116.93, 4083.84, and 4061.41
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4151.72, 4167.93, and 4206.05
• Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 4164.00, the high of 4:00 AM and break below 4101.75, the low of 2:15 AM

Pre-Open

• On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2022) closed at 4223.00 and the index closed at 4225.50 – a spread of about -2.50 points; futures closed at 4222.00 for the day; the fair value is +1.00
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures are lower – at 8:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -115.75; Dow by -841; and NASDAQ by -455.75

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed lower
• European markets are lower
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
  

  Up	Down
  Dollar index GBP/USD AUD/USD NZD/USD USD/CAD	EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF INR/USD

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are higher
  • Precious metals are higher
  • Industrial metals are mostly higher
  • Soft commodities are mostly lower
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • 10-years yield closed at 1.977%, up +4.8 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • 30-years is at 2.275%, up +4.3 basis points;
  • 2-years yield is at 1.607%, up +24.9 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.370, down from 0.571
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.298, down from 0.303
• VIX
  • At 36.83 @ 6:45 AM; up from the last close; above the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 38.94 on January 24; low = 23.88 on February 16
  • Sentiment: Risk-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Monthly	December 2021 was a green candle that opened above the previous week’s real-body and closed higher with a small upper shadow and a slightly longer lower shadow; at all-time highs Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossed above %D; above 90; RSI-9 is turning up from above 75; Above the upper band of a 120-month regression channel; Confirmed Uptrend: sequence of higher highs and higher lows
Weekly:	The week ending on February 18 was a spinning top candle with a longer upper shadow Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is below %D RSI-9 is just above 35 The week was down -69.77 or -1.6%; the 5-week ATR  is 206.07 A down week; third in the last five weeks, and sixth in the previous ten weeks The weekly pivot point=4388.55, R1=4355.55, R2=4406.34; S1=4260.54, S2=4216.32; S1 pivot level was breached Below 10-week EMA and 39-week SMA; above 89-week SMA In Correction
Daily	A relatively large red candle with a small upper shadow and almost no lower shadow; breaking below a major support level; breaking below an irregular H&S pattern – the 61.8% extension target is near 3973.67 and the 100% extension target is near 3774.18; Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is below %D; near 0 RSI-9 is below 30; below 8-day EMA; Below 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA, 200-day SMA In Correction
2-Hour (E-mini futures)	Downtrend since 4:00 AM on January 4; Broke below a not-so-perfect upsloping flag at 4:00 PM on February 11 – the 61.8% extension target near 4208 is achieved and the 100% extension target is near 3977.38; RSI-21 has fallen below 20 from just above 50 Below EMA20, which is below EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Down
30-Minute (E-mini futures)	Moving sideways around 4110.00 since 10:00 PM within a 60 points range after declining sharply from 12:30 PM high of 4305.00 RSI-21 has moved above 30 from near 20 after making a Bullish Divergence at 2:00 AM Below EMA20, which is below EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Down
15-Minute (E-mini futures)	The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways since 3:15 AM; The Bollinger Band is expanding slightly since 7:30 AM with price walking down the lower band Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crisscrossing %D lower; below 20 Bias: Down

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed lower on Wednesday, February 23, in mixed volume. S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite traded in higher volume. The major indices started the decline from the ope and picked up steam after a brief bounce in the late morning and closed near the lows for the day. Most indices are either at or breaking below their respective major support levels.

From Briefing.com:

The S&P 500 fell 1.0% on Tuesday, although it was down as much as 1.9% amid rising Russia-Ukraine tensions, pestering concerns about monetary policy, and weakening price momentum. The Nasdaq Composite (-1.2%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (-1.4%), and Russell 2000 (-1.5%) also closed off their session lows, but they still lost more than 1.0%. […] WTI crude futures settled above $92 per barrel ($92.27, +1.06, +1.2%) after flirting with $95 per barrel overnight. The U.S. Dollar Index was little changed at 96.07. The CBOE Volatility Index increased just 3.8% to 28.81 after topping 32.00 intraday. [..] The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 110.5 in February (Briefing.com consensus 109.0) from a downwardly revised 111.1 (from 113.8) in January. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 95.2. […] The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index for December increased 18.6% year-over-year (Briefing.com consensus 18.3%) following an 18.3% increase in November. The FHFA Housing Price Index for December increased 1.2% month-over-month following a revised 1.2% increase (from 1.1%) in November. The preliminary IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI for February increased to 57.5 from 55.5 in January while the preliminary Services PMI increased to 56.7 from 51.2 in January. […] Dow Jones Industrial Average -7.5% YTD S&P 500 -9.7% YTD Russell 2000 -11.8% YTD Nasdaq Composite -14.5% YTD Overseas:  Europe: DAX -0.3%, FTSE +0.1%, CAC -0.0% Asia: Nikkei -1.7%, Hang Seng -2.7%, Shanghai -1.0% Commodities:  Crude Oil +1.23 @ 91.28 Nat Gas +0.07 @ 4.49 Gold 7.10 @ 1906.10 Silver +0.27 @ 24.21 Copper -0.03@ 4.50