Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are lower 8:30 AM; declined more than 40 points since the release of the CPI report at 8:30 AM
- The odds are for a down day with elevated volatility; watch for a break above 4577.50 for a change of fortunes
- Key economic data report due during the day:
- CPI ( 0.6% vs. 0.4% est.; prev. 0.5%) at 8:30 AM
- Core CPI ( 0.6% vs. 0.5% est.; prev. 0.6%) at 8:30 AM
- Unemployment Claims (223K vs. 227K est.; prev. 239K) at 8:30 AM
Directional Bias Before Open:
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Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4547.00, 4531.32, 4494.38
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4568.13, 4577.24, and 4595.31
- Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 4577.50, the high of 8:30 AM and break below 4534.75, the low of 8:30 AM
Pre-Open
- On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2022) closed at 4579.50 and the index closed at 4587.18 – a spread of about -7.75 points; futures closed at 4577.75 for the day; the fair value is +1.75
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures are lower – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -32.75; Dow by -95; and NASDAQ by -173.75
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed higher
- European markets are higher
- Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
Up Down - EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- USD/JPY
- USD/CHF
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
- USD/CAD
- Dollar index
- INR/USD
- Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
- Energy futures are mixed
- Precious metals are mixed
- Industrial metals are mostly lower
- Soft commodities are mostly higher
- Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
- 10-years yield closed at 1.929%, up +8.1 basis points from two weeks ago;
- 30-years is at 2.232%, up +6.5 basis points;
- 2-years yield is at 1.345%, up +19.8 basis points;
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.584, down from 0.701
- The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.303, down from 0.319
- VIX
- At 20.58 @ 7:45 AM; up from the last close; below the 5-day SMA;
- Recent high = 26.26 on February 4; low = 20.46 on February 2
- Sentiment: Risk-Off
The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:
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Weekly: |
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Daily |
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2-Hour (E-mini futures) |
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30-Minute (E-mini futures) |
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15-Minute (E-mini futures) |
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Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed higher on Wednesday, February 9, in mixed volume. NASDAQ Composite and Russell 2000 traded in lower volume. The indices gapped up at the open and gradually drifted higher for the rest of the day.
From Briefing.com:
The S&P 500 gained 1.5% on Wednesday, as investors were encouraged about the COVID-19 outlook and the ability for the market to hold onto early gains. The Nasdaq Composite (+2.1%) and Russell 2000 (+1.9%) each rose about 2.0% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.9%. […] All 11 S&P 500 sectors closed higher after registering most, if not all, of their gains at the open. The communication services (+2.5%), real estate (+2.4%), information technology (+2.3%), and materials (+2.1%) sectors gained more than 2.0%. The consumer staples sector (+0.02%) closed fractionally higher.
[…]The 10-yr yield decreased three basis points to 1.93% amid a strong $37 billion 10-yr note auction
[…]The 2-yr yield settled unchanged at 1.34%,
[…]The U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.1% to 95.54. WTI crude futures increased 0.3%, or $0.22, to $89.65/bbl.
Separately, the Nasdaq 100 (+2.1%) closed above its 200-day moving average (15,048) after seeing technical resistance at that level earlier in the day.
[…][…]
- Wholesale inventories increased 2.2% m/m in December (Briefing.com consensus 2.0%) following a revised 1.7% increase (from 1.4%) in November.
- The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index fell 8.1% following a 12.0% increase in the prior week.
- Dow Jones Industrial Average -1.6% YTD
- S&P 500 -3.8% YTD
- Russell 2000 -7.2% YTD
- Nasdaq Composite -7.4% YTD
Overseas:
- Europe: DAX +1.6%, FTSE +1.0%, CAC +1.5%
- Asia: Nikkei +1.1%, Hang Seng +2.1%, Shanghai +0.8%
Commodities:
- Crude Oil +0.16 @ 89.48
- Nat Gas -0.24 @ 3.99
- Gold +4.00 @ 1833.60
- Silver +0.02 @ 23.27
- Copper +0.16 @ 4.63
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