Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are lower at 8:45 AM; down more than 30 points  since 7:45 AM and more than 70 points from 2:00 AM
• The odds are for a down day with elevated volatility; watch for a break above 443.25 for a change of sentiments
• Key economic data report due during the day:
  • Non-Farm Employment Change ( 467K vs. 110K est; prev. 510K) at 8:30 AM
  • Unemployment Rate  ( 4.0% vs. 3.9% est.; prev. 3.9%) at 8:30 AM
  • Average Hourly Earnings ( 0.7% vs. 0.5% est.; prev. 0.5%) at 8:30 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Weekly: Correction Daily: Confirmed Uptrend 120-Min: Down-Side

30-Min: Up-Side 15-Min: Down 6-Min: Down

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4453.23, 4414.02, and 4369.86
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4470.39, 4499.75, and 4520.34
• Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 4473.25, the high of 8:30 AM and break below 4443.50, the low of 8:30 AM

Pre-Open

• On Thursday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2022) closed at 4471.75 and the index closed at 4477.44 – a spread of about -5.75 points; futures closed at 4469.00 for the day; the fair value is +2.75
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures are lower – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -46.50; Dow by +-70; and NASDAQ by -320.25

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed most higher – Mumbai closed lower; Shanghai was closed
• European markets are lower
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
  

  Up	Down
  EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD INR/USD	Dollar index GBP/USD AUD/USD NZD/USD

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are higher
  • Precious metals are lower
  • Industrial metals are mostly lower
  • Soft commodities are mixed
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • 10-years yield closed at 1.824%, down -0.9 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • 30-years is at 2.181%, up +4.1 basis points;
  • 2-years yield is at 1.198%, up +16.7 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.626, down from 0.772
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.357, up from 0.307
• VIX
  • At 25.94 @ 7:00 AM; up from the last close; above the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 38.9 on January 24; low = 20.46 on February 2
  • Sentiment: Risk-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Monthly	December 2021 was a green candle that opened above the previous week’s real-body and closed higher with a small upper shadow and a slightly longer lower shadow; at all-time highs Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossed above %D; above 90; RSI-9 is turning up from above 75; Above the upper band of a 120-month regression channel; Confirmed Uptrend: sequence of higher highs and higher lows
Weekly:	The week ending on January 28 was a green candle that looked like a hammer with a small upper shadow; Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is crossing above %D from near zero RSI-9 has turned up; just below 40 The week was up +33.91 or +0.8%; the 5-week ATR  is 180.75 An up week; second in the last five weeks, and fourth in the previous ten weeks The weekly pivot point=4369.23, R1=4515.85, R2=4599.84; S1=4285.24, S2=4138.62; S1/S2 pivot levels were breached Below 10-week EMA and 39-week SMA; above 89-week SMA In Correction
Daily	A red candle that gapped down; almost no upper and lower shadows; declining from a resistance level at the low of January 10 Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossed below %D from above 90 RSI-9 has turned down to near 45; above 8-day EMA; Below 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, and 100-day SMA; above 200-day SMA Confirmed Uptrend
2-Hour (E-mini futures)	Moving down since 12:00 PM on February 2 from a resistance level at the downtrend line from the all-time highs; downtrend since January 4 – lower lows and lower highs; RSI-21 moved from above 75 to just above 40 Below EMA 20, at/below EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Down-Side
30-Minute (E-mini futures)	Moving sideways to downs since 4:30 PM on Wednesday RSI-21 is moving down; just below 40 Below EMA20, which is below EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Up-Side
15-Minute (E-mini futures)	The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is drifting down since 11:00 PM on Wednesday The Bollinger Band is expanding since 4:30 AM with price walking down the lower band Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is crossing below %D at 8:00 AM from above 80 Bias: Down

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed lower on Thursday, February 3, in mixed volume. Dow Jones Transportation Average and Russell 2000 traded in lower volume. The major indices opened down and then traded down for the rest of the day.

From Briefing.com:

The S&P 500 fell 2.4% on Thursday, pressured by disappointing earnings results and guidance from Meta Platforms (FB 237.76, -85.24, -26.4%) and an increase in interest rates. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 3.7%, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-1.5%) and Russell 2000 (-1.9%) didn’t fare as bad. […] The Russell 3000 Growth Index fell 3.7%, versus a 1.1% decline in the Russell 3000 Value Index. […] The S&P 500 communication services (-6.8%), consumer discretionary (-3.6%), and information technology (-3.1%) sectors fell between 3-7% amid weakness in the mega-cap stocks. The consumer staples sector (+0.01%) closed fractionally higher due to its defensive qualities. […] The 2-yr yield rose four basis points to 1.19%, and the 10-yr yield rose six basis points to 1.83%. The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.6% to 95.38 amid a stronger euro, which keyed off rate-hike expectations due to inflationary pressures. Crude futures topping $90 per barrel ($90.22, +2.05, +2.3%) fueled the inflation angst. […] The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for January decreased to 59.9% (Briefing.com consensus 60.0%) from an upwardly revised 62.3% (from 60.0%) in December. The dividing line between expansion and contraction is 50.0%. The January reading marks the 20th straight month of growth for the services sector, albeit at a slightly slower pace. […] Initial jobless claims for the week ending January 29 decreased by 23,000 to 238,000 (Briefing.com consensus 245,000) while continuing claims for the week ending January 22 decreased by 44,000 to 1.628 million. […] Q4 nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 6.6% (Briefing.com consensus 2.7%) with output increasing 9.2% and hours worked increasing 2.4%. Unit labor costs increased 0.3% as hourly compensation increased 6.9% versus the 6.6% increase in productivity. […] Factory orders for manufactured goods decreased 0.4% m/m in December (Briefing.com consensus -0.4%) following an upwardly revised 1.8% increase (from 1.6%) in November. Shipments of manufactured goods jumped 0.4% after increasing 0.7% in November. […] The final IHS Markit Services PMI for January increased to 51.2 from 50.9 in the preliminary reading. […] Dow Jones Industrial Average -3.4% YTD S&P 500 -6.1% YTD Nasdaq Composite -11.3% YTD Russell 2000 -11.3% YTD Overseas:  Europe: DAX -1.6%, FTSE -0.7%, CAC -1.5% Asia: Nikkei -1.1%, Hang Seng closed for holiday, Shanghai closed for holiday Commodities:  Crude Oil +1.87 @ 90.08 Nat Gas -0.53 @ 4.92 Gold -2.00 @ 1806.60 Silver -0.29 @ 22.41 Copper +0.02 @ 4.47