Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are higher at 8:30 AM; futures are breaking above a sideways move at 8:30 AM
• The odds are for an up day with elevated volatility; watch for a break below 4705.50 for a change of sentiments
• Key economic data report due during the day:
  • CPI (0.5% vs. 0.4% est.; prev. 0.8%) at 8:30AM
  • Core CPI ( 0.6% vs. 0.5% est.; prev. 0.5%) at 8:30 AM
  • Beige Book at 2:00 PM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Weekly: Uptrend Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure 120-Min: Down-Side

30-Min: Up 15-Min: Up 6-Min: Up-Side

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4702.29, 4694.87, and 4683.35
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4738.71, 4758.17, and 4764,35
• Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 4730.25, the high of 8:30 AM and break below 4705.50, the low of 7:15 AM

Pre-Open

• On Tuesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2022) closed at 4705.00 and the index closed at 4713.07 – a spread of about -8.00 points; futures closed at 4705.00 for the day; the fair value is +0.00
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures are higher – at 8:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +8.25; Dow by +73; and NASDAQ by +46.50

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed higher
• European markets are mostly higher – Switzerland is down
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
  

  Up	Down
  EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF	Dollar index AUD/USD NZD/USD USD/CAD INR/USD

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are higher
  • Precious metals are mixed
  • Industrial metals are lower
  • Soft commodities are mixed
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • 10-years yield closed at 1.736%, up +25.5 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • 30-years is at 2.072%, up +16.9 basis points;
  • 2-years yield is at 0.887%, up +12.5 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.849, up from 0.719
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.336, down from 0.422
• VIX
  • At 18.24 @ 7:45 AM; down from the last close; below 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 23.33 on January 10; low =  16.34 on January 4
  • Sentiment: Risk-On

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:

Monthly	December 2021 was a green candle that opened above the previous week’s real-body and closed higher with a small upper shadow and a slightly longer lower shadow; at all-time highs Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossed above %D; above 90; RSI-9 is turning up from above 75; Above the upper band of a 120-month regression channel; Confirmed Uptrend: sequence of higher highs and higher lows
Weekly:	The week ending on January 7 was a relatively large Bearish Engulfing candle at all-time highs Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K crossed below %D; RSI-9 is turned down below 60 The week was down -89.15 or -1.9%; the 5-week ATR  is 151.11 A down week; second in the last five weeks, and fifth in the previous ten weeks The weekly pivot point=4719.46, R1=4776.19, R2=4875.34; S1=4620.31, S2=4563.58; R1/S1/S2 pivot levels were breached Above 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA; above 89-week SMA Uptrend Under Pressure
Daily	A green candle with a small lower shadow and almost no upper shadow; a three-day Morning Star pattern following a shallow decline Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is above %D; above 50; RSI-9 is just above 40; below 8-day EMA; Below 20-day EMA; above 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA, and 200-day SMA Uptrend Under Pressure
2-Hour (E-mini futures)	Crossed above a downtrend line from the all-time high  after bouncing up almost 150 points from a low of 4572.75 on Monday RSI-21 is above 60 after crossing above a downtrend line from December 27 high of above 90 Above EMA20, which at/above EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Down-Side
30-Minute (E-mini futures)	Breaking above the high, 4715.00, of a congestion zone – a down sloping channel that lasted from January 5 to January 9; RSI-21 is moving just below 60; Above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Up
15-Minute (E-mini futures)	The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways to up since 4:15 PM The Bollinger Band is expanding/flattening since 3:45 AM Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is above %D Bias: Up

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mostly higher on Tuesday, January 11, in lower volume. Dow Jones Transportation Average closed lower. Indices declined in the first half-hour of trading and then traded higher for the rest of the day.

From Briefing.com:

The S&P 500 gained 0.9% on Tuesday in a continuation of dip-buying efforts that started yesterday afternoon. The Nasdaq Composite (+1.4%) and Russell 2000 (+1.1%) outperformed with gains over 1.0% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.5%) rose more modestly. […] The reaction in the Treasury market was perhaps more consequential for stocks. The 2-yr yield quickly backed down from 1.94% and settled unchanged at 0.90% while the 10-yr yield drifted lower by three basis points to 1.75%. The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.4% to 95.62. The S&P 500 information technology (+1.2%) led the market higher with the retracement in yields, but it was outdone by the 3% gain in the energy sector (+3.4%). Energy stocks followed oil prices ($81.14, +3.03, +3.9%) higher. Conversely, the utilities (-0.9%), real estate (-0.2%), and consumer staples (-0.1%) sectors closed lower, as their defensive characteristics did not sit well with investors in the rebound-minded session. […] Tuesday’s economic data was limited to the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, which December increased to 98.9 in December from 98.4 in November. […] Dow Jones Industrial Average -0.2% YTD S&P 500 -1.1% YTD Russell 2000 -2.3% YTD Nasdaq Composite -3.1% YTD