Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are lower at 8:45 AM; sharply down following the Non-Farm Payroll report at 8:30 AM
• The odds are for a down day with elevated volatility; watch for a break above 4701.25 for a change of sentiments
• Key economic data report due during the day:
  • Non-Farm Employment Change ( 199K vs. 426K est.; prev. 249K) at 8:30 AM
  • Average Hourly Earnings ( 0.6% vs. 0.4% est.; prev. 0.4%) at at 8:30 AM
  • Unemployment Claims ( 3.9% vs. 4.1% est.; prev. 4.2%) at 8:30 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Weekly: Uptrend Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure 120-Min: Down-Side

30-Min: Down-Side 15-Min: Down-Side 6-Min: Side-Choppy

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4688.41, 4671.26, and 4631.97
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4718.65, 4725.01, and 4739.48
• Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 4701.25, the high of 8:30 AM and break below 4662.00, the low of 10:00 AM on Thursday

Pre-Open

• On Thursday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2022) closed at 4687.00 and the index closed at 4696.05 – a spread of about -9.00 points; futures closed at 4687.50 for the day; the fair value is -0.50
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures are lower – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -14.00; Dow Down by -65; and NASDAQ by -108.00

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Shanghai and Tokyo closed down
• European markets are mixed – the UK, Italy, and Switzerland are higher; German7, France, Spain, and STOXX 600 are lower
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
  

  Up	Down
  Dollar index GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF	EUR/USD AUD/USD NZD/USD USD/CAD INR/USD

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are higher
  • Precious metals are lower
  • Industrial metals are lower
  • Soft commodities are mixed
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • 10-years yield closed at 1.739%, up +24.6 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • 30-years is at 2.098%, up +19.3 basis points;
  • 2-years yield is at 0.8700%, up +17.9 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.869, up from 0.802
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.359, down from 0.412
• VIX
  • At 20.29 @ 8:45 AM; up from the last close; above 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 27.39 on December 20; low =  16.34 on January 4
  • Sentiment: Risk-Off

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:

Monthly	December 2021 was a green candle that opened above the previous week’s real-body and closed higher with a small upper shadow and a slightly longer lower shadow; at all-time highs Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossed above %D; above 90; RSI-9 is turning up from above 75; Above the upper band of a 120-month regression channel; Confirmed Uptrend: sequence of higher highs and higher lows
Weekly:	The week ending on December 31 was a small green candle like a tear-drop Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is turning down above %D; near 80 RSI-9 is just above 65 The week was up +40.39 or +0.9%; the 5-week ATR  is 155.50 An up week; third in the last five weeks, and sixth in the previous ten weeks The weekly pivot point=4769.70, R1=4805.41, R2=4844.64; S1=4730.47, S2=4694.76; R1 pivot level was breached Above 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA; above 89-week SMA Uptrend Resumed
Daily	A Doji candle that closed below the previous day’s close Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is below %D; turning up from near 0; RSI-9 is just below 60 after falling to near 45 from above 60; below 8-day EMA; Below 20-day EMA; above 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA, and 200-day SMA Uptrend Under Pressure
2-Hour (E-mini futures)	Moving sideways after a sharp decline from the all-time high of 4808.25 to 4662.00; broke below a Horizontal Channel – between 4798.00 and 4750.00 – the 161.8% extension target near 4678.00 is achieved RSI-21 is trending down since 2:00 PM on December 27; below a downtrend line; made few Bearish Divergences Below EMA20, which is below EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Down-Side
30-Minute (E-mini futures)	Moving sideways since 4:00 PM on January 5; RSI-21 is moving around 50; At/below EMA20, which is at/below EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Down-Side
15-Minute (E-mini futures)	The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways since 9:30 PM on Wednesday The Bollinger Band is narrow and stable at 8:15 AM; Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is crossing above %D at 8:15 AM from below 20 Bias: Down-Side

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mixed on Thursday, January 6, in lower volume. The day’s price action was highly volatile with large swings.

From Briefing.com:

The stock market closed mixed on Thursday in an underwhelming effort following yesterday’s retreat. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both declined 0.1%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.5%. The small-cap Russell 2000, however, advanced 0.6%. […] Five of the 11 S&P 500 sectors ended the session in positive territory while six sectors closed lower. The materials (-1.2%), health care (-1.2%), and utilities (-1.1%) sectors declined more than 1.0% while the information technology sector declined 0.5%. […] Recapping the moves in the Treasury market, the 10-yr yield settled three basis points higher at 1.73% while the 2-yr yield rose six basis points to 0.88% amid expectations for a more aggressive Fed. The U.S. Dollar Index increased 0.1% to 96.30. WTI crude futures rose 2.0%, or $1.58, to $79.40/bbl after briefly topping $80.00/bbl. […] Initial claims for the week ending January 1 increased by 7,000 to 207,000 (Briefing.com consensus 198,000) and continuing claims for the week ending December 25 increased by 36,000 to 1.754 million. […] The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for December decreased to 62.0% (Briefing.com consensus 67.1%) from a record high 69.1% in November. The dividing line between expansion and contraction is 50.0%. The December reading marks the 19th straight month of growth for the services sector. […] The trade deficit for November widened to $80.2 billion (Briefing.com consensus -$69.4 billion) from $67.2 billion in October. Exports were $0.4 billion higher than October exports and imports were $13.4 billion more than October imports. […] Factory orders for manufactured goods increased 1.6% m/m in November (Briefing.com consensus 1.2%) following an upwardly revised 1.2% increase (from 1.0%) in October. Shipments of manufactured goods jumped 0.7% after increasing 2.0% in October. […] Dow Jones Industrial Average -0.3% YTD S&P 500 -1.5% YTD Russell 2000 -1.7% YTD Nasdaq Composite -3.6% YTD Overseas:  Europe: DAX -1.4%, FTSE -0.9%, CAC -1.7% Asia: Nikkei -2.9%, Hang Seng +0.7%, Shanghai -0.3% Commodities:  Crude Oil +1.83 @ 79.45 Nat Gas flat @ 3.69 Gold -30.20 @ 1787.00 Silver -0.86 @ 22.12 Copper -0.04 @ 4.36