Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are higher at 8:00 AM;
• Futures are trending up since 5:30 AM on Wednesday
• The odds are for an up day with elevated volatility – watch for a break above 4397.75 and a break below 4369.50 for more insights
• Key economic data report due during the day:
  • Unemployment Claims ( 350K vs. 362K) at 8:30 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Weekly: Uptrend Daily: Uptrend-Under-Pressure 120-Min: Down-Side

30-Min: Side-Up 15-Min: Up-Side 6-Min: Up-Side

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4375.19, 4345.76, and 4326.66
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4419.54, 4439.96, and 4453.85
• Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 4397.75, the high of 7:30 AM and break below 4369.50, the low of 1:45 AM

Pre-Open

• On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (December 2021) closed at 4353.50 and the index closed at 4363.55 – a spread of about -10.00 points; futures closed at 4354.00 for the day; the fair value is -0.50
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures are lower – at 8:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up +41.00; Dow by +285; and NASDAQ by +177.00

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed higher – Shanghai was closed for trading;
• European markets are higher;
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
  

  Up	Down
  Dollar index USD/JPY USD/CHF AUD/USD INR/USD	EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/CAD NZD/USD

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are higher
  • Precious metals are lower
  • Industrial metals lower
  • Soft commodities are mostly higher
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • 10-years yield closed at 1.524%, up +18.8 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • 30-years is at 2.076%, up +22.5 basis points;
  • 2-years yield is at 0.302%, up +6.0 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 1.222, up from 1.094
• VIX
  • At 20.49 @ 6:30 AM; down from the last close; below 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high =  28.79 on September 20; low =  17.65 on September 16
  • Sentiment: Risk-On

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:

Monthly	September 2021 was a relatively large Bearish Engulfing with almost no upper and lower shadows; made all-time intra-month high; Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K turned below %D from near 100; RSI-9 just below 70 from above 80; Bearish Divergence Above the upper band of a 120-month regression channel; Confirmed Uptrend: sequence of higher highs and higher lows
Weekly:	The week ending on October 1 was a Bearish Engulfing candle with a small upper shadow and a lower shadow that is half the size of the real body Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is below %D below 30; RSI-9 is below 50 The week was down -98.44 or -2.2%; the 5-week ATR is 101.55 A down week; third in the last five weeks, and fifth in the last ten weeks The weekly pivot point=4367.62, R1=4446.72, R2=4536.40; S1=4277.94, S2=4198.84; S1 pivot level was breached Below 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA Uptrend Under Pressure
Daily	A Bullish Engulfing candle following a green Harami candle; with almost no upper shadow and small lower shadow; Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is above %D; above 45 RSI-9 is above 45; above 8-day EMA; Bullish Divergence Below 20-day EMA and 50-day EMA; at/above 100-day SMA; above 200-day SMA Correction
2-Hour (E-mini futures)	Broke above a Symmetrical triangle – 61.8% extension target is near 4430.00 and the 100% extension target is near 4480.00 RSI-21 is near 80 Above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Down-Side
30-Minute (E-mini futures)	Moving up since 5:30 AM on Wednesday; broke above a Symmetrical triangle – 61.8% extension target is near 4420.00 and the 100% extension target is near 4460.00 RSI-21 is moving along 65 Above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Side-Up
15-Minute (E-mini futures)	The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways to up since 10:00 PM The Bollinger Band is expanding since 6:30 AM with price walking up the upper band Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossed below %D at 7:30 AM Bias:  Up-Side

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mostly higher on Wednesday, October 6 in higher volume. Russell 2000 closed lower.

Major indices gapped down at the open but turned around in the first hour of trading and then after a choppy few hours traded higher in the afternoon. Most made bullish reversal candles. The sentiments turned bullish by the close.

From Briefing.com:

The S&P 500 gained 0.4% on Wednesday, overcoming an early 1.3% decline, as the market turned positive following news of a potential concession on the debt ceiling. The Nasdaq Composite (+0.5%) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.3%) also recouped early losses to close higher, while the Russell 2000 fell 0.6%. […] Nevertheless, eight of the 11 S&P 500 sectors closed higher after each traded lower in the morning. The defensive-oriented utilities (+1.5%), consumer staples (+1.0%), and real estate (+1.0%) sectors led the rebound effort with decent gains. The energy (-1.1%), materials (-0.3%), and health care (-0.2%) sectors closed lower. […] the 10-yr yield settled lower by one basis point to 1.52% after peaking at 1.57% overnight. […] WTI crude futures fell 1.9%, or $1.47, to $77.50/bbl. Natural gas futures fell 8.5% to $5.73/MMBtu. The U.S. Dollar Index increased 0.3% to 94.21. […] ADP estimated that private sector payrolls increased by 568,000 in September (Briefing.com consensus 405,000) after increasing by a downwardly revised 340,000 (from 374,000) in August. The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index fell 6.9% following a 1.1% decline in the prior week. […] S&P 500 +16.2% YTD Dow Jones Industrial Average +12.5% YTD Nasdaq Composite +12.5% YTD Russell 2000 +12.2% YTD Overseas:  Europe: DAX -1.5%, FTSE -1.2%, CAC -1.3% Asia: Nikkei -1.1%, Hang Seng -0.6%, Shanghai closed for holiday Commodities:  Crude Oil -1.73 @ 77.37 Nat Gas -0.53 @ 5.73 Gold +0.50 @ 1762.60 Silver -0.07 @ 22.58 Copper -0.03 @ 4.16