Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are higher at 8:00 AM;
• Futures are rising since 9:15 PM; up more than 40 points from 4269.00;
• The odds are for an up day with elevated volatility – watch for a break below 4302.75 and a break below 4287.00 for a change of sentiments
• Key economic data report due during the day:
  • Trade Balance ( -70.5B est.; prev. -70.1B) at 8:30 AM
  • Final Services PMI ( 54.4 est.; prev. 54.4 at 9:45 AM
  • ISM Services PMI ( 59.9 est.; prev. 61.7 ) at 10:00 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Weekly: Uptrend Daily: Uptrend-Under-Pressure

120-Min: Side-Down 30-Min: Down-Side 15-Min: Side-Up 6-Min: Side-Up

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4288.86, 4278.94, and 4262.05
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4323.39, 4336.20, and 4346.53
• Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 4314.75, the high of 7:30 AM and break below 4302.75, the low of 6:45 AM

Pre-Open

• On Monday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (December 2021) closed at 4292.00 and the index closed at 4300.46 – a spread of about -8.50 points; futures closed at 4291.25 for the day; the fair value is +0.75
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures are higher – at 7:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were up +19.00; Dow by +161; and NASDAQ by +62.00

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mixed- Hong Kong and Tokyo closed down; Sydney, Mumbai, and Singapore closed up; Shanghai and Seoul were closed for trading
• European markets are mostly higher – Germany and France are lower
• Currencies (from two weeks ago):
  

  Up	Down
  Dollar index USD/JPY USD/CAD INR/USD	EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/CHF AUD/USD NZD/USD

• Commodities (from two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are higher
  • Precious metals are mixed
  • Industrial metals are mostly lower
  • Most soft commodities are mostly higher
• Treasuries (from two weeks ago)
  • 10-years yield closed at 1.477%, up +10.7 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • 30-years is at 2.051%, up +14.2 basis points;
  • 2-years yield is at 0.266%, up +4.4 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 1.247, up from 1.180
• VIX
  • At 22.14 @ 7:45 AM; down from the last close; below 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high =  28.79 on September 20; low =  17.65 on September 16
  • Sentiment: Risk-On

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:

Monthly	September 2021 was a relatively large Bearish Engulfing with almost no upper and lower shadows; made all-time intra-month high; Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K turned below %D from near 100; RSI-9 just below 70 from above 80; Bearish Divergence Above the upper band of a 120-month regression channel; Confirmed Uptrend: sequence of higher highs and higher lows
Weekly:	The week ending on October 1 was a Bearish Engulfing candle with a small upper shadow and a lower shadow that is half the size of the real body Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is below %D below 30; RSI-9 is below 50 The week was down -98.44 or -2.2%; the 5-week ATR is 101.55 A down week; third in the last five weeks, and fifth in the last ten weeks The weekly pivot point=4367.62, R1=4446.72, R2=4536.40; S1=4277.94, S2=4198.84; S1 pivot level was breached Below 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA Uptrend Under Pressure
Daily	A relatively red candle that looks like a Bearish Engulfing; with a small upper shadow and a slightly longer lower shadow; Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K again crossed below %D; RSI-9 again turned down; just above 30; below 8-day EMA Below 20-day EMA and 50-day EMA; at/below 100-day SMA; above 200-day SMA Correction
2-Hour (E-mini futures)	Moving sideways to up since 12:00 PM on Monday to a downtrend line resistance; RSI-21 drifting up since 12:00 PM from just below 30 to just above 50 At/above EMA20 but below EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Side-Down
30-Minute (E-mini futures)	Drifting sideways to up since 11:30 Am on Monday; RSI-21 is moving up from just above 30 to above 50 Above EMA10 of EMA50, which is at/above EMA20 Bias: Down-Side
15-Minute (E-mini futures)	The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is drifting sideways to up since 3:15 PM on Monday The Bollinger Band is expanding slight since 4:15 AM with price walking up the upper band Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossed below %D at 7:30 AM Bias:  Side-Up

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed lower on Monday, October 4 in mostly lower volume. NASDAQ Composite traded in lower volume.

Major indices opened lower and then traded sharply down till mid-morning. After that, they mostly traded sideways.

From Briefing.com:

The S&P 500 fell 1.3% on Monday, […] The Nasdaq Composite was disproportionally affected with a 2.1% decline while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.9%) and Russell 2000 (-1.1%) declined closer to 1.0%. […] Eight of the 11 S&P 500 sectors finished lower, led by the information technology (-2.4%) and communication services (-2.1%) sectors with losses over 2.0%. […] The energy (+1.6%), utilities (+1.4%), and real estate (+0.1%) sectors bucked the negative trend. Energy stocks followed oil prices ($77.69/bbl, +1.82, +2.4%) higher after OPEC+ agreed to maintain its plan for gradual supply increases, which was expected. […] U.S. Treasuries settled mostly lower, meaning yields rose modestly. The 10-yr yield increased two basis points to 1.48%, and the 2-yr yield increased one basis point to 0.27%. The U.S. Dollar Index decreased 0.3% to 93.78. […] S&P 500 +14.5% YTD Russell 2000 +12.4% YTD Nasdaq Composite +10.6% YTD Dow Jones Industrial Average +11.1% YTD Overseas:  Europe: DAX -0.8%, FTSE -0.2%, CAC -0.6% Asia: Nikkei -1.1%, Hang Seng -2.2%, Shanghai closed for holiday Commodities:  Crude Oil +2.10 @ 77.98 Nat Gas +0.15 @ 5.76 Gold +8.00 @ 1766.40 Silver +0.07 @ 22.61 Copper +0.05 @ 4.24