Morning Notes – Thursday September 9, 2021

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are lower;
  • The odds are for a down to sideways day – watch for a break above 4513.25 for a change of fortunes
  • Key economic data report due during the day:
    • Unemployment Claims ( 310K vs. 343K est.; prev. 345K) at 8:30 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

  • Weekly: Uptrend
  • Daily: Uptrend
  • 120-Min: Up-Side
  • 30-Min: Side-Down
  • 15-Min: Side-Down
  • 6-Min: Down-Side

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4506.11, 4493.95, and 4487.62
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4515.98, 4521.65, and 4527.78
  • Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 4512.50, the high of 8:00 PM and break below 4497.25, the low of 7:30 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (September 2021) closed at 4513.00 and the index closed at 4514.07 – a spread of about -1.00 points; futures closed at 4512.50 for the day; the fair value is +0.50
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures are lower – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -6.00; Dow by -40; and NASDAQ by -6.00

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai, Mumbai, and Singapore closed higher; Hong Kong, Tokyo, Syndey, and Seoul closed lower
  • European markets are lower
  • Currencies (from two weeks ago):
    Up Down
    • EUR/USD
    • GBP/USD
    • USD/JPY
    • USD/CHF
    • AUD/USD
    • NZD/USD
    • USD/CAD
    • Dollar index
    • INR/USD
  • Commodities (from two weeks ago):
    • Energy futures are higher
    • Precious metals are higher
    • Industrial metals are lower
    • Most soft commodities are mostly lower
  • Treasuries (from two weeks ago)
    • 10-years yield closed at 1.336%, down -0.6 basis points from two weeks ago;
    • 30-years is at 1.950%, down -0.9 basis points;
    • 2-years yield is at 0.220%, down -2.2 basis points;
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 1.116, up from 1.100
  • VIX
    • At 18.40 @ 8:00 AM; up from the last close; above 5-day SMA;
    • Recent high =  24.74 on August 19; low =  15.19 on August 13
    • Sentiment: Risk-Off-Neutral

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • May 2021 was a Doji with a small upper shadow and a long lower shadow; at all-time closing and intra-month highs;
    • Stochastic %K above %D near 100;
    • RSI-9 near 80; broke above a downtrend line from January 2018
    • Above the upper band of a 120-month regression channel;
  • The sequence of higher highs and higher lows
Weekly:
  • The week ending on September 3 was a green candle that opened higher with a small upper shadow and almost no lower shadow; at all-time highs
    • Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K crossed  above %D; near 100
    • RSI-9 is above 70
  • The week was up +26.06 or +0.6%; the 5-week ATR is 66.42
  • An up week; fourth in the last five weeks, and seventh in the last ten weeks
  • The weekly pivot point=4531.68, R1=4539.60, R2=4563.77; S1=4517.51, S2=4499.59; R1 pivot level was breached
  • Above 10-week EMA, 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend since March 23, 2020
Daily
  • A small Dragonfly doji near all-time highs
    • %K is below %D below 60;
    • RSI-9 is below 60; below 8-day EMA;
  • Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day, and 200-day SMA
  • Uptrend
2-Hour (E-mini futures)
  • Declining since 8:00 Am on September 6; below a downtrend line; broke below within an up-sloping channel; uptrend since 4:00 AM on August 19;
    • RSI-21 is bouncing from 20 to near 45; Bullish Divergence at 2:00  AM on Wednesday
  • Below EMA20, which is below EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Up-Side
30-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • Drifting down since 9:30 AM on September 6; bouncing since 3:00 AM to a resistance level created by the downtrend line
    • RSI-21 is moving up from below 40 to just above 50
    • Above EMA10 of EMA50, which is above EMA20
  • Bias: Side-Down
15-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving down since 7:15 PM on September 6; turning up since 4:30 AM
  • The Bollinger Band is slightly expanded with price near the upper band
    • Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossed below %D at 8:15 AM
  • Bias: Side-Down

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed lower on Wednesday, September 8 in mostly higher volume. Dow Jones Industrial Average traded in lower volume.

Only one S&P sector – Technology – closed up. Energy, Health Care, and Telecom closed unchanged and all others closed lower.

From Briefing.com:

The major indices closed lower on Wednesday, as investors digested another negative-sounding news cycle. The S&P 500 (-0.1%) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.2%) finished slightly lower, the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.6%, and the Russell 2000 struggled with a 1.1% decline.

[…]

The 10-yr yield decreased four basis points to 1.33%, while the 2-yr yield increased one basis point to 0.22%. The U.S. Dollar Index increased 0.2% to 92.71. WTI crude futures rose 1.4%, or $0.92, to $69.32/bbl.

[…]
  • Consumer credit increased by $17.0 bln in July (Briefing.com consensus $28.0B) after increasing an upwardly revised $37.9 bln (from $37.6 bln) in June.
  • […]
  • Job openings increased to a record-high of 10.934 million in July from a revised 10.185 million (from 10.073 million) in June.
  • The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index decreased 1.9% following a 2.4% decline in the prior week.
[…]
  • S&P 500 +20.2% YTD
  • Nasdaq Composite +18.6% YTD
  • Russell 2000 +13.9% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average +14.5% YTD

Overseas: 

  • Europe: DAX -1.5%, FTSE -0.8%, CAC -0.9%
  • Asia: Nikkei +0.9%, Hang Seng -0.1%, Shanghai flat

Commodities: 

  • Crude Oil +0.97 @ 69.35
  • Nat Gas +0.36 @ 4.94
  • Gold -4.80 @ 1795.00
  • Silver -0.34 @ 24.08
  • Copper -0.04 @ 4.24