Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are little changed;
• The odds are for a sideways day  — watch for a break  above 4432.00 and break below 4416.50 for clarity
• Key economic data report due during the day:
  • Prelim Nonfarm Productivity ( 2.3% vs. 3.3% est.; prev. 4.3%) at 8:30 AM
  • Prelim Unit Costs (1.0% vs. 0.9% est.; prev. 1.7%) at 8:30 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Weekly: Uptrend Daily: Uptrend

120-Min: Side-Up 30-Min: Side 15-Min: Side 6-Min: Up-Side

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4424.74, 4415.97, and 4400.23
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4440.82, 4446.81, and 4454.23
• Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 4432.00, the high of 9:30 AM on Monday and break below 4416.50, the low of 10:00 PM

Pre-Open

• On Monday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (September 2021) closed at 4425.50 and the index closed at 4432.35 – a spread of about -6.75 points; futures closed at 4425.75 for the day; the fair value is -0.25
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures are mixed – at 8:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -0.25; Dow down by -13, and NASDAQ up by +16.75

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mostly higher –  Seoul was lower;
• European markets are mostly higher – the UK, and Spain are down;
• Currencies (from two weeks ago):
  

  Up	Down
  Dollar index GBP/USD USD/CHF USD/CAD INR/USD	EUR/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD NZD/USD

• Commodities (from two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are lower
  • Precious metals are lower
  • Industrial metals are lower
  • Most soft commodities are mostly higher
• Treasuries (from two weeks ago)
  • 10-years yield closed at 1.317%, up +4.1 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • 30-years is at 1.963%, up +3.7 basis points;
  • 2-years yield is at 0.224%, up +1.8 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 1.093, down from 1.070
• VIX
  • At 16.68 @ 7:45 AM; up from the last close; below 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high =  25.09 on July 19; low =  16.33 on July 23
  • Sentiment: Risk-Neutral-Off

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:

Monthly	Confirmed Uptrend May 2021 was a Doji with a small upper shadow and a long lower shadow; at all-time closing and intra-month highs; Stochastic %K above %D near 100; RSI-9 near 80; broke above a downtrend line from January 2018 Above the upper band of a 120-month regression channel; The sequence of higher highs and higher lows
Weekly:	The week ending on August 6 was a relatively small green candle with almost no upper shadow and a small lower shadow at all-time highs; Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K crossed above %D; just above 90 RSI (9) is above 70 The week was up +41.26 or +0.9%; the 5-week ATR is 92.14 An up week; third in the last five weeks, and seventh in the last ten weeks The weekly pivot point=4416.78, R1=4460.56, R2=4484.60; S1=4392.74, S2=4348.96; R1 pivot level was breached Above 10-week EMA, 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA Uptrend since March 23, 2020
Daily	A small red candle with a small lower  shadow and a smaller upper shadows; %K crossed below %D; above 90 RSI-9 is just above 60; above 8-day EMA Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day, and 200-day SMA Uptrend
2-Hour (E-mini futures)	Moving along the upper bound of a Horizontal Channel that has been forming since July 23 between 4420.00 and 4380.00; RSI-21 rising near 60 after falling to near 40 on Monday; At/above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Side-Up
30-Minute (E-mini futures)	Moving sideways since 7:30 AM on August 6; RSI-21 rose to above 50 from near 40 At/above EMA20, which is at/above EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Side
15-Minute (E-mini futures)	The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is drifting up since 2:45 AM The Bollinger Band is narrowing; Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is crisscrossing %D higher Bias: Side

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mostly lower on Monday, August 9 in mostly lower volume.  NASDAQ Composite closed higher and Dow Jones Transportation Average traded in higher volume. Major indices declined in the first half-hour of trading and then mostly traded higher clawing back some of the loss.

From Briefing.com:

The S&P 500 decreased 0.1% on Monday in a mixed, and tight-ranged, session that lacked conviction. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.3%) and Russell 2000 (-0.6%) joined the benchmark index in negative territory, while the Nasdaq Composite increased 0.2%. […] Seven of the 11 S&P 500 sectors closed lower, although the energy sector (-1.5%) was the only sector that lost more than 1.0%. […] The Treasury market, meanwhile, didn’t reflect increased growth concerns since the 10-yr yield settled three basis points higher at 1.32% after touching 1.27% intraday. The financials sector (+0.3%) benefited from the positive turnaround and was accompanied by the health care (+0.4%) and consumer staples (+0.3%) sectors atop the leaderboard. […] The 2-yr yield was unchanged at 0.20%. The U.S. Dollar Index increased 0.2% to 92.98. Monday’s economic data was limited to the JOLTS report for June, which showed job openings increase to a record-high of 10.073 million from a revised 9.483 million (from 9.209 million) in May. […] S&P 500 +18.1% YTD Nasdaq Composite +15.1% YTD Dow Jones Industrial Average +15.0% YTD Russell 2000 +13.2% YTD Overseas:  Europe: DAX -0.1%, FTSE +0.1%,CAC -0.1% Asia: Nikkei closed for holiday, Hang Seng +0.4%, Shanghai +1.1% Commodities:  Crude Oil -1.52 @ 66.51 Nat Gas -0.09 @ 4.06 Gold -33.80 @ 1727.90 Silver -0.99 @ 23.34 Copper -0.05 @ 4.29