Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are higher;
• The odds are for a sideways to a down day from pre-open levels around 4390.00  — watch for a break above 4397.25 and a break below 4381.00 for clarity
• Key economic data report due during the day:
  • Factory Orders ( 1.0% est.; prev. 1.7%) at 10:00 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Weekly: Uptrend Daily: Uptrend

120-Min: Side 30-Min: Side 15-Min: Side-Choppy 6-Min: Up

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4384.81, 4372.51, and 4350.06
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4403.70, 4414.94, and 4422.18
• Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 4397.25, the high of 5:00 AM and break below 4381.00, the low of 10:00 PM

Pre-Open

• On Monday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (September 2021) closed at 4380.25 and the index closed at 4387.16 – a spread of about -7.00 points; futures closed at 4379.75 for the day; the fair value is +0.50
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures are higher – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +6.50; Dow by +71, and NASDAQ by +14.75

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mostly lower – Mumbai and Seoul closed up
• European markets are mostly higher – Germany is lower
• Currencies (from two weeks ago):
  

  Up	Down
  EUR/USD GBP/USD AUD/USD NZD/USD	Dollar index USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD INR/USD

• Commodities (from two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are higher
  • Precious metals are higher
  • Industrial metals are mostly higher
  • Most soft commodities are mostly higher
• Treasuries (from two weeks ago)
  • 10-years yield closed at 1.176%, down -0.5 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • 30-years is at 1.850%, up +3.5 basis points;
  • 2-years yield is at 0.172%, down -4.6 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 1.004, up from 0.963
• VIX
  • At 18.72 @ 8:00 AM; down from the last close; above 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high =  25.09 on July 19; low =  16.33 on July 23
  • Sentiment: Risk-On-Neutral

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:

Monthly	Confirmed Uptrend May 2021 was a Doji with a small upper shadow and a long lower shadow; at all-time closing and intra-month highs; Stochastic %K above %D near 100; RSI-9 near 80; broke above a downtrend line from January 2018 Above the upper band of a 120-month regression channel; The sequence of higher highs and higher lows
Weekly:	The week ending on July 30 was a Doji candle with almost equal-sized upper and lower shadows; Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K crossed below %D; just below 80 RSI (9) is just around 70 The week was down -16.53 or -0.4%; the 5-week ATR is 94.73 A down week; second in the last five weeks, and third in the last ten weeks The weekly pivot point=4399.25, R1=4425.98, R2=4456.71; S1=4368.52, S2=4341.79; No pivot levels were breached Above 10-week EMA, 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA Uptrend since March 23, 2020
Daily	A small Bearish Engulfing candle with almost no lower shadow and a small upper shadow; %K is below %D; near 50 RSI-9 is near 50; below 8-day EMA Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day, and 200-day SMA Uptrend
2-Hour (E-mini futures)	Moving within a Horizontal Channel between 4420.00 and 4380.00; near the middle of the pattern RSI-21 down to near 40; moving down in steps At/below EMA20, which is at/above EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Side
30-Minute (E-mini futures)	Moving sideways since 10:30 AM on July 23 RSI-21 is around 40 Below EMA20 but at/above EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Side
15-Minute (E-mini futures)	The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is drifting up since 10:15 PM The Bollinger Band was narrow and stable till 8:15 AM; expanding a bit since with price at the lower band; Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K attempting to cross above %D Bias: Side-Choppy

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mostly lower on Monday, August 2 in lower volume. NASDAQ Composite closed higher.

The indices opened higher and made day’s high in the first half-hour of trading and then mostly trading lower.

From Briefing.com:

The S&P 500 (-0.2%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.1%), and Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.3%) closed mixed and little changed on Monday, with risk sentiment pressured by a noticeable decline in long-term interest rates. The Russell 2000 lost 0.5% after being up 1.4% in early action, while the large-cap indices were up as much as 0.6-0.7% intraday. […] In the U.S., the July ISM Manufacturing Index marked the 14th straight month of expansion for the sector, but the index missed expectations and decelerated to 59.5% (Briefing.com consensus 60.7%) from 60.6% in June. The Prices Index of the report decreased to 85.7% from 92.1% while the construction spending report for June also missed expectations. The 10-yr yield was trading at 1.21% right before the two reports were released at 10:00 a.m. ET, then dropped to 1.15% over the next two hours as the data reinforced expectations for growth/inflation rates to moderate. The 10-yr yield settled the session at 1.17%, or seven basis points below Friday’s settlement. Stocks faded their early gains as long-term rates extended their declines, leaving the S&P 500 sectors mixed after each started in the green. On the downside, the materials (-1.2%), industrials (-0.7%), and energy (-0.7%) sectors lagged while the consumer discretionary (+0.3%) and utilities (+0.8%) sectors outperformed. […] The 2-yr yield decreased one basis point to 0.17%. The U.S. Dollar Index decreased 0.1% to 92.07. WTI crude futures fell 3.5%, or $2.56, to $71.31/bbl amid demand concerns. […] The final IHS Market Manufacturing PMI for June checked in at 63.4, up from 63.1 in the preliminary reading. […] S&P 500 +16.8% YTD Dow Jones Industrial Average +13.8% YTD Nasdaq Composite +13.9% YTD Russell 2000 +12.2% YTD Overseas:  Europe: DAX +0.2%, FTSE +0.7%, CAC +1.0% Asia: Nikkei +1.8%, Hang Seng +0.9%, Shanghai +2.0% Commodities:  Crude Oil -2.43 @ 71.20 Nat Gas +0.02 @ 3.95 Gold +5.30 @ 1819.60 Silver +0.07 @ 25.54 Copper -0.07 @ 4.42