Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are higher;
• The odds are for an up day with elevated volatility – watch for a break below 4319.75 for a change of sentiments
• Key economic data report due during the day:
  • Final Wholesale Inventories ( 7.8% est.; prev. 8.2%) at 10:00 AM
  • Fed Monetary Policy Report
  • G20 Meeting

Directional Bias Before Open:

Weekly: Uptrend Daily: Uptrend

120-Min: Up-Side 30-Min: Side-Up 15-Min: Up 6-Min: Up

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4322.04, 4305.39, and 4293.99
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4351.48, 4355.92, 4361.88
• Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 4336.00, the high of 7:30 AM on Tuesday and break below 4319.75, the low of 6:00 AM

Pre-Open

• On Thursday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (September 2021) closed at 4315.50 and the index closed at 4320.82 – a spread of about -5.25 points; futures closed at 4313.00 for the day; the fair value is +2.50
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures are mixed – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +19.00; Dow up by +262, and NASDAQ down by -5.75

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mostly lower – Sydney closed up;
• European markets are lower
• Currencies (from two weeks ago):
  

  Up	Down
  Dollar index USD/CAD INR/USD	EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF AUD/USD NZD/USD

• Commodities (from two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are mixed
  • Precious metals are mixed
  • Industrial metals are lower
  • Most soft commodities are mostly lower
• Treasuries (from two weeks ago)
  • 10-years yield closed at 1.288%, down -19.9 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • 30-years is at 1.910%, down -18.5 basis points;
  • 2-years yield is at 0.220%, down -4.5 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 1.068, down from 1.222
• VIX
  • At 17.28 @ 8:30 AM; down from the last close; above 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high =  21.82 on June 21; low =  14.10 on June 29
  • Sentiment: Risk-On

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:

Monthly	Confirmed Uptrend May 2021 was a Doji with a small upper shadow and a long lower shadow; at all-time closing and intra-month highs; Stochastic %K above %D near 100; RSI-9 near 80; broke above a downtrend line from January 2018 Above the upper band of a 120-month regression channel; The sequence of higher highs and higher lows
Weekly:	The week ending on July 2 was a green candle that gapped up at the open and made all-time highs with almost no lower and  upper shadows Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is above %D; near 100 RSI (9) is just above 70 The week was up +71.64 or +1.7%; the 5-week ATR is 80.14 An up week; fourth in the last five weeks, and seventh in the last ten weeks The weekly pivot point=4327.48, R1=4380.29, R2=4408.24; S1=4299.53, S2=4246.72; R1 pivot level was breached Above 10-week EMA, 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA Uptrend since March 23, 2020
Daily	A Doji candle that gapped down at the open, though the gap was closed; the lower shadow is almost three times the upper shadow; %K is below %D from above 90 RSI-9 is declined to near 60 after making Bearish Divergence on July 7 ; below 8-day EMA Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day, and 200-day SMA Uptrend
2-Hour (E-mini futures)	Rising since 8:00 AM on July 8 from near 4280.00 to above 4330.00; RSI-21 up above 60 from below 20 Above EMA10 of EMA50, which is above EMA20 Bias: Up-Side
30-Minute (E-mini futures)	Back near the mid-point of a Horizontal Channel that was broken on Thursday; the 61.8% extension target near 4279.00; above 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level of the decline RSI-21 rising to above 60 from below 20 Above EMA20, which is Above EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Up-Side
15-Minute (E-mini futures)	The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving up since 1:30 AM The Bollinger Band is expanded but stable Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is below %D Bias: Up

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed lower on Thursday, July 8 in higher volume. Major indices gapped down at the open and then declined a bit more in the morning session before turning around and recovering some of the losses.

From Briefing.com:

The S&P 500 (-0.9%) and Nasdaq Composite (-0.7%) pulled back from record territory on Thursday, as investors mainly took profits amid pestering peak growth concerns. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.8% while the Russell 2000 declined 0.9% after it led the major indices lower with a 2.7% intraday decline. […] All 11 S&P 500 sectors closed lower, led by the cyclical financials (-2.0%), industrials (-1.4%), and materials (-1.4%) sectors. The consumer discretionary sector (-0.1%) declined just 0.1% […] The 10-yr yield and 2-yr yield both settled lower by three basis points to 1.29% and 0.19%, respectively. The U.S. Dollar Index decreased 0.3% to 92.37. […] For the week ending July 3, initial claims increased 2,000 to 373,000 (Briefing.com consensus 350,000). Continuing claims for the week ending June 26 decreased by 145,000 to 3.339 million — the lowest since March 21, 2020. […] Consumer credit increased by $35.3 bln in May (Briefing.com consensus $19.0B) after increasing an upwardly revised $20.0 bln (from $18.6 bln) in April. The key takeaway from the report is that the expansion in consumer credit in May was the largest since December 2010. […] S&P 500 +15.0% YTD Russell 2000 +13.0% YTD Nasdaq Composite +13.0% YTD Dow Jones Industrial Average +12.5% YTD Overseas:  Europe: DAX -1.7%, FTSE -1.7%, CAC -2.0% Asia: Nikkei -0.9%, Hang Seng -2.8%, Shanghai -0.8% Commodities:  Crude Oil +0.94 @ 73.01 Nat Gas +0.10 @ 3.69 Gold -4.20 @ 1799.10 Silver -0.14 @ 26.03 Copper -0.06 @ 4.26