Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are higher
- The odds are for a sideways to an up day – watch for a break above 4141.50 and a break below 4127.50 for clarity
- Key economic data report due during the day:
- Flash Manufacturing PMI ( 60.9 est.; prev. 59.1 ) at 9:45 AM
- Flash Services PMI ( 61.6 est.; prev. 60.4 ) at 9:45 AM
- New Home Sales ( 885K est.; prev. 775K) at 10:00 AM
Directional Bias Before Open:
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Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4123.69, 4118.38, and 4108.62
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4145.98, 4157.51, and 4179.57
- Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 4141.50, the high of 3:45 AM and break below 4127.50, the low of 2:15 AM
Pre-Open
- On Thursday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (June 2021) closed at 4127.25 and the index closed at 4134.98 – a spread of about -7.75 points; futures closed at 4127.75 for the day; the fair value is -0.50
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures are higher – at 8:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +9.00; Dow by +12, and NASDAQ by +24.00
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Sydney and Mumbai were down
- European markets are lower
- Currencies (from two weeks ago):
Up Down - EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- INR/USD
- Dollar index
- USD/JPY
- USD/CHF
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
- USD/CAD
- Commodities (from two weeks ago):
- Energy futures are mixed
- Precious metals are higher
- Industrial metals are higher
- Most soft commodities are mostly higher
- Treasuries (from two weeks ago)
- 10-years yield closed at 1.554%, down -7.8 basis points from two weeks ago;
- 30-years is at 2.239%, down -8.3 basis points;
- 2-years yield is at 0.145%, down -0.8 basis points;
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 1.409, down from 1.479
- VIX
- At 18.42 @ 7:30 AM; down from the last close; above 5-day SMA;
- Recent high = 23.55 on March 25; low = 15.38 on April 14
- Sentiment: Risk-Neutral-to-Off
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:
Monthly |
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Weekly: |
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Daily |
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2-Hour (E-mini futures) |
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30-Minute (E-mini futures) |
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15-Minute (E-mini futures) |
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Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed lower on Thursday, April 22 in higher volume. Most major indices made Dark Cloud Cover candlestick formations. Major indices opened lower but then got into the green before suddenly turning around at 1:00 PM and closed near the lows of the day. All S&P sectors closed lower.
From Briefing.com:
The S&P 500 declined 0.9% on Thursday, ostensibly due to reports that President Biden will propose increasing the capital gains tax rate for wealthy Americans. The Nasdaq Composite (-0.9%) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.9%) declined in-line with the benchmark index. The Russell 2000 declined just 0.3%. […] Every sector in the S&P 500 closed in negative territory, led lower by the materials (-1.8%), energy (-1.4%), information technology (-1.2%), and consumer discretionary (-1.2%) sectors with losses over 1.0%.
[…]In other developments, weekly initial claims fell to a new post-pandemic low at 547,000 (Briefing.com consensus 600,000), existing home sales decreased 3.7% m/m in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.01 million (Briefing.com consensus 6.15 million) amid historically low supply, and the ECB kept interest rates/asset purchases unchanged.
U.S. Treasuries finished little changed in a relatively muted session. The 2-yr yield was unchanged at 0.14%, and the 10-yr yield decreased one basis point to 1.55%. The U.S. Dollar Index increased 0.1% to 91.26. WTI crude futures increased 1.2%, or $0.10, to $61.45/bbl.
[…]
- Russell 2000 +13.1% YTD
- Dow Jones Industrial Average +10.5% YTD
- S&P 500 +10.1% YTD
- Nasdaq Composite +7.2% YTD
Overseas:
- Europe: DAX +0.8%, FTSE +0.6%, CAC +0.9%
- Asia: Nikkei +2.4%, Hang Seng +0.2%, Shanghai -0.2%
Commodities:
- Crude Oil +0.24 @ 61.43
- Nat Gas +0.06 @ 2.75
- Gold -12.80 @ 1780.60
- Silver -0.38 @ 26.18
- Copper -0.01 @ 4.26
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