Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are higher
• The odds are for an up day with a good chance of sideways move from pre-open levels around 4140.00 – watch for a break above 4146.00 and a break below 4134.75 for clarity
• Key economic data report due during the day:
  • Retail Sales ( 9.8% vs. 5.8% est.; prev. -3.0%) at 8:30 AM
  • Core Retail Sales (8.4% vs. 5.1% est.; prev. -2.7%) at 8:30 AM
  • Philly Fed Manufacturing Index ( 50.2 vs. 41.0 est.; prev. 51.8) at 8:30 AM
  • Unemployment Claims ( 576K vs. 703K est.; prev. 769K) at 8:30 AM
  • Capacity Utilization rate ( 75.6% est.; prev. 73.8%) at 9:15 AM
  • Industrial Production ( 2.7% est.; prev. -2.2%) at 9:15 AM
  • Business Inventories ( 0.5% est.; prev. 0.3%) at 10:00 AM
  • NAHB Housing Market Index (84 est.; prev. 82) at 10:00 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Weekly: Uptrend Daily: Uptrend Resumed

120-Min: Up 30-Min: Side-Up 15-Min: Side-Up 6-Min: Side-Up

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4137.93, 4120.87, and 4107.70
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4145.69, 4163.23, and 4174.76
• Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 4146.00, the high of 8:30 AM and break below 4134.75, the low of 6:00 AM

Pre-Open

• On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (June 2021) closed at 4120.00 and the index closed at 4124.66 – a spread of about -5.00 points; futures closed at 4118.00 for the day; the fair value is +2.00
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures are higher – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +24.75; Dow by +167, and NASDAQ by +126.00

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Shanghai and Hong Kong closed down
• European markets are higher
• Currencies (from two weeks ago):
  

  Up	Down
  EUR/USD GBP/USD AUD/USD NZD/USD INR/USD	Dollar index USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD

• Commodities (from two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are higher
  • Precious metals are mixed
  • Industrial metals are mostly higher
  • Most soft commodities are mostly higher
• Treasuries (from two weeks ago)
  • 10-years yield closed at 1.638%, down -10.8 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • 30-years is at 2.325%, down -10.0 basis points;
  • 2-years yield is at 0.157%, down -0.7 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 1.481, down from 1.582
• VIX
  • At 16.80 @ 7:45 AM; down from the last close; at/below 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high =  23.55 on March 25; low =  15.38 on April 14
  • Sentiment: Risk-On

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:

Monthly	Confirmed Uptrend March 2021 was a green candle with a small upper shadow and a lower shadow almost equal to the real body; at all-time closing and intra-month highs; Stochastic %K above %D near 100; RSI-9 near 75; broke above a downtrend line from January 2018 Above the upper band of a 120-month regression channel; The sequence of higher highs and higher lows is resumed
Weekly:	The week ending on April 9 was a green candle breaking away from previous weeks; almost no upper and lower shadows; at all-time highs Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is above %D; near 100 RSI (9) is near 75 The week was up +108.93 or +2.7%; the 5-week ATR is 109.96 An up week; fourth in the last five weeks, and seventh in the last ten weeks The weekly week pivot point=4160.71, R1=4192.61, R2=4255.75; S1=4065.67, S2=4002.53; R1/R2/R3 pivot levels were breached Above 10-week EMA, 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA Uptrend since March 23, 2020
Daily	A relatively small Bearish Engulfing candle from all-time intraday and closing highs Broke above a symmetrical triangle at 3550.00 level on November 9; the 161.8% extension target near 4140.00 levels is achieved %K is below %D; just above 80 RSI-9 is just above 70; below 8-day EMA Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day, and 200-day SMA Uptrend
2-Hour (E-mini futures)	Trending up since 10:00 AM on March 25; at all-time highs; sideways since 2:00 PM on April 13 Broke above a down-sloping flag on March 26; the 100% extension target near 4100.00 is achieved; the 161.8% extension target is near 4260.00 RSI-21 is near 65; below a down-trending line from April 2; made few Bearish Divergences in the last few days Above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Up
30-Minute (E-mini futures)	Moving up since 3:30 PM on April 14 after declining during the day from the all-time high; RSI-21 is just above 60 Above EMA 20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Side-Up
15-Minute (E-mini futures)	The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving up since 12:45 AM The Bollinger Band is narrowing after expanding from 2:30 Am to 7:00 AM; the price at the upper bound Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is crossing below %D from above 90 Bias: Side-Up

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mixed on Wednesday, April 14 in mixed volume. S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite, and Wilshire 5000 Total Market closed lower. Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones Transportation Average traded in lower volume. Indices mostly traded within a narrow range during the day and most made Bearish Engulfing candle formations.

From Briefing.com:

The S&P 500 declined 0.4% on Wednesday, as investors appeared to take profits in the heavily-weighted growth stocks […] The Nasdaq Composite (-1.0%) underperformed with a 1.0% decline. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.2%) and Russell 2000 (+0.8%), […] The overall tone of their reports was well-received by other banks and reopening stocks within the S&P 500 financials (+0.7%), energy (+2.9%), materials (+0.7%), and industrials (+0.1%) sectors. Energy stocks got an added boost from a 5% gain in crude prices ($63.18, +3.00, +5.0%) amid bullish inventory data from the EIA. […] The information technology (-1.2%), consumer discretionary (-1.2%), and communication services (-0.9%) sectors, where the recently-hot mega-caps reside, were the weakest performers. […] The 10-yr yield settled the session two basis points higher at 1.64% after trading slightly higher prior to the Beige Book’s release. The 2-yr yield decreased one basis to 0.15%. The U.S. Dollar Index decreased 0.2% to 91.64. […] Import prices increased 1.2% in March while import prices excluding oil increased 0.8%. Export prices increased 2.1% in March while export prices excluding agriculture increased 2.0%. The MBA Mortgage Applications Index decreased 3.7% following a 5.1% decline in the prior week. […] Russell 2000 +13.8% YTD Dow Jones Industrial Average +10.2% YTD S&P 500 +9.8% YTD Nasdaq Composite +7.5% YTD Overseas:  Europe: DAX -0.2%, FTSE +0.7%, CAC +0.4% Asia: Nikkei -0.4%, Hang Seng +1.4%, Shanghai +0.6% Commodities:  Crude Oil +2.67 @ 63.03 Nat Gas -0.01 @ 2.62 Gold -12.60 @ 1735.40 Silver +0.05 @ 25.47 Copper +0.10 @ 4.13 After-Hours Spotlight: Allegion (ALLE) files mixed securities shelf offering… ALLE flat American Eagle (AEO) issues upside Q1 revenue guidance, noting that demand has accelerated across the American Eagle and Aerie brands… AEO up 4.3% Bristol-Myers (BMY) receives EC approval for Opdivo in combination with Cabometyx as first-line treatment for patients with advanced renal cell carcinoma… BMY up 0.3% Cimpress (CMPR) guides MarQ revs above single analyst estimate… CMPR up 5.7% Costco (COST) increases quarterly dividend to $0.79/share from $0.70/share; new yield is 0.9%… COST up 0.3% Dell (DELL) announces planned spin-off of 81% equity ownership of VMware (VMW)… DELL up 8.4% Ethan Allen (ETH) guides MarQ EPS above dual-analyst estimate… ETH down 2.6% Las Vegas Sands (LVS) launching advertising campaign to bring casinos to Texas, according to Texas Tribune… LVS up 0.3% TEGNA (TGNA) guides Q1 revs above consensus… no after hours indication for TGNA Fair Value for Thursday, April 15: S&P 500: 4,116 Nasdaq 100: 13,793 DJIA: 33,616 […]