Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are lower; futures gave up more than 40 points since 4:00 AM
• The daily bias is sideways to down
• The odds are for a down day – watch for a break above 3877.25 for a change of fortune
• Key economic data report due during the day:
  • ADP Non-Farm Employment Change ( 117K vs. 203K est.; prev. 174K) at 8:15 AM
  • Final services PMI ( 58.9 est.; prev. 58.9) at 9:45 AM
  • ISM Services PMI ( 58.7 est.; prev. 58.7) at 10:00 AM
  • Beige Book at 2:00 PM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Weekly: Uptrend Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure

120-Min: Side-Down 30-Min: Side 15-Min: Side-Down 6-Min: Side-Down

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3868.57, 3862.91, and 3842.51
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 3887.46, 3902.65, and 3914.50
• Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 3877.25, the high of 8:30 AM and break below 3843.25, the low of 6:30 AM on Monday

Pre-Open

• On Tuesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2021) closed at 3868.25 and the index closed at 3870.29 – a spread of about -2.00 points; futures closed at 3867.50 for the day; the fair value is +0.75
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures are mixed – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -1.50; Dow up by +32, and NASDAQ down by -26.00

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed higher
• European markets are mostly higher – Spain and Switzerland are down
• Currencies (from two weeks ago):
  

  Up	Down
  Dollar index USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD INR/USD	EUR/USD GBP/USD AUD/USD NZD/USD

• Commodities (from two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are lower
  • Precious metals are lower
  • Industrial metals are mixed
  • Most soft commodities are mixed
• Treasuries (from two weeks ago)
  • 10-years yield closed at 1.415%, up 11.6 BP from two weeks ago;
  • 30-years is at 2.216%, up 12.6 BP;
  • 2-years yield is at 0.109%, down 1.6 BP;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 1.306, up from 1.174
• VIX
  • At 24.80 @ 8:30 AM; up from the last close; below 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high =  31.16 on February 25; low =  19.69 on February 10
  • Sentiment: Risk-Off

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:

Monthly	Confirmed Uptrend December 2020 was a green candle with a small gap and with almost no upper and lower shadows; all-time closing and intraday highs; Stochastic %K above %D near 100; RSI-9 above 70; broke above a downtrend line from January 2018 Above the upper band of a 120-month regression channel; The sequence of higher highs and higher lows is resumed
Weekly:	The week ending on February 26 was a red candle with mall upper and lower shadows; a three-week Evening Star pattern is emerging Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is below %D, which is turning down and forming a Bearish Divergence RSI (9) is below 60; potential Bearish Divergence emerging The week was down -95.56 or -2.4%; the 5-week ATR is 122.78 A down week; second in a row, third in the last five weeks, and fifth in the last ten weeks The weekly week pivot point=3843.11, R1=3896.69, R2=3982.22; S1=3757.58, S2=3704.00; S1/S2/S3 pivot levels were breached At/above 10-week EMA, 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA Uptrend since March 23, 2020
Daily	A red Harami candle with almost no lower and upper shadows; Broke above a symmetrical triangle at 3550.00 level on November 9; the 100% extension target near 3900.00 is achieved; 161.8% extension target is near 4140.00 levels %K  turning down above %D; just above 50 RSI-9 just below 50; at/below 8-day EMA At/above 20-day EMA; above 50-day EMA, 100-day, and 200-day SMA Uptrend Under Pressure
2-Hour (E-mini futures)	Moving sideways to down since 2:00 PM on Monday after bouncing up from 3785.00 at 10:00 AM on Friday; within a congestion area; RSI-21 just above 50; declining since 2:00 PM on Monday At/above EMA10 of EMA50, which is at/above EMA20 Bias: Side-Down
30-Minute (E-mini futures)	Moving essentially sideways since 10:00 AM on Monday between 3912.00 and 3865.00 RSI-21 drifting sideways to up since 8:00 PM around 45 Below EMA10 of EMA50, which is below EMA20 Bias: Side
15-Minute (E-mini futures)	The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways to down since 3:30 PM on Monday; The Bollinger Band is expanding since 7:45 AM with price walking down the lower band Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is crisscrossing %D lower Bias: Side-Down

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed lower on Tuesday, March 2 in lower volume. Most indices made red Harami candlestick formations and retraced one-third or more of Monday gains. For the past many days the major indices have moved mostly sideways to down with NASDAQ lagging behind others.

From Briefing.com:

The S&P 500 declined 0.8% on Tuesday, retracing some of yesterday’s rally, as the market struggled to attract follow-through buyers. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.5%, while the Nasdaq Composite (-1.7%) and Russell 2000 (-1.9%) fell more than 1.5%. Most of the 11 S&P 500 sectors wavered between gains and losses today, but ten of them closed in negative territory amid a weak finish. The information technology (-1.6%) and consumer discretionary (-1.3%) sectors were influential laggards throughout the session, while the materials sector (+0.6%) was the one sector that closed higher. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 3.1%. […] The 10-yr yield decreased three basis points to 1.42%, while the 2-yr yield was unchanged at 0.12%. The U.S. Dollar Index decreased 0.3% to 90.77. WTI crude futures decreased 1.2%, or $0.75, to $59.79/bbl. […] Russell 2000 +13.0% YTD Nasdaq Composite +3.7% YTD S&P 500 +3.0% YTD Dow Jones Industrial Average +2.6% YTD