Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are higher;
• The odds are for an up day, with a good chance of sideways to down move from the pre-open level near 3850.00; watch for a break below 3840.00 for change of fortune
• Key economic data report due during the day:
  • Philly Fed Manufacturing Index ( 11.2 est.; prev. 11.1) at 8:30 AM
  • Unemployment Claims ( 930K Est.; prev. 965K) at 8:30 AM
  • Building Permits ( 1.60M est.; prev. 1.64M) at 8:30 AM
  • Housing Starts ( 1.56M est.; prev. 1.55M) at 8:30 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Weekly: Uptrend Daily: Uptrend

120-Min: Up 30-Min: Up 15-Min: Up-Side 6-Min:  Up-Side

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3851.55, 3834.45 and 3816.22
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 3859.75, 3868.99, and 3886.14
• Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 3859.75, the high of 11:30 PM and break below 3847.75, the low of 3:15 AM and 3840.00, the low 4:30 PM

Pre-Open

• On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2021) closed at 3842.50 and the index closed at 3851.85 – a spread of about -9.50 points; futures closed at 3845.00 for the day; the fair value is -2.50
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures are higher – at 7:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +7.75; Dow by +56, and NASDAQ by +56.50

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East mostly higher – Hong Kong and Mumbai were down
• European markets are mostly higher – France and Itlay are lower
• Currencies (from two weeks ago):
  

  Up	Down
  Dollar index GBP/USD USD/CHF AUD/USD	EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CAD NZD/USD INR/USD

• Commodities (from two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are mixed
  • Precious metals are higher
  • Industrial metals are higher
  • Most soft commodities are mixed
• Treasuries (from two weeks ago)
  • 10-years yield closed at 1.090%, up 4.8 BP from two weeks ago;
  • 30-years is at 1.842%, up 2.1 BP;
  • 2-years yield is at 0.145%, unchanged;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.945, up from 0.897
• VIX
  • At 21.35 @ 6:30 AM; down from the last close; below 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high =  29.19 on January 4; low =  20.99 on December 29
  • Sentiment: Risk-On

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:

Monthly	Confirmed Uptrend December 2020 was a green candle with a small gap and with almost no upper and lower shadows; all-time closing and intraday highs; Stochastic %K above %D near 100; RSI-9 above 70; broke above a downtrend line from January 2018 Above the upper band of a 120-month regression channel; The sequence of higher highs and higher lows is resumed
Weekly:	The week ending on January 8 was a green candle with a relatively long lower shadow that opened higher; all-time intraday highs; Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is above %D; near 100 RSI (9) is above 70 The week was up +68.61 or +1.8%; the 5-week ATR is 91.15 An up week; third in the last five weeks and seventh in the last ten weeks The weekly week pivot point=3771.36, R1=3880.01, R2=3935.34; S1=3716.03, S2=3607.38; R1/R2/3 and S1/S2/S3 pivot levels were breached Above 10-week EMA, 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA Uptrend since March 23
Daily	A relatively large green candle that gapped up at the open with almost no upper and lower shadows; breaking above a trading range since January 7; Broke above a symmetrical triangle at 3550.00 level on November 9; the 61.8% extension target near 3750.00 is achieved; 100% extension target is near 3900.00 %K  is above %D and near 100; RSI-9 is near 75; above 8-day EMA Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day, and 200-day SMA Confirmed Uptrend
2-Hour (E-mini futures)	Broke above an un-even down-sloping flag; RSI-21 declined from near 85 to below 80 Above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Up
30-Minute (E-mini futures)	Moving up since 7:00 PM on Sunday; near the all-time high RSI-21 declined from above 80 to near 60 %K is crossing below %D At/above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Up
15-Minute (E-mini futures)	The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways to down since 11:45 PM; The Bollinger Band is narrowing Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is below %D Bias: Up-Side

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed higher on Wednesday, January 20 in mostly higher volume. Dow Jones Transportation Average traded in lower volume. Indices are trying to break above a small trading range that was in effect since January 7. Major indices closed at all-time highs. Most also made all-time intraday highs except Dow Jones Transportation Average and NYSE Composite.

From Briefing.com:

Each of the major indices closed at fresh record highs on Wednesday in a session that featured the mega-caps as leaders and Joe Biden inaugurated as the 46th president. The Nasdaq Composite (+2.0%) outperformed with a 2% gain, followed by gains in the S&P 500 (+1.4%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.8%) and Russell 2000 (+0.4%). […] In turn, the S&P 500 communication services (+3.6%), information technology (+2.0%), and consumer discretionary (+2.3%) sectors claimed today’s top spots. Every other sector, except financials (-0.5%), as well as small-cap and mid-cap stocks contributed to the steady advance, albeit to a lesser extent. […] U.S. Treasuries finished little changed in a tight-ranged session. The 2-yr yield decreased one basis point to 0.12%, and the 10-yr yield remained unchanged at 1.09%. The U.S. Dollar Index finished little changed at 90.46. WTI crude futures increased 0.6%, or $0.30, to $53.28/bbl. […] The NAHB Housing Market Index decreased to 83 in January (Briefing.com consensus 88) from 86 in December. The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index decreased 1.9% following a 16.7% spike in the prior week. […] Russell 2000 +9.4% YTD Nasdaq Composite +4.4% YTD S&P 500 +2.6% YTD Dow Jones Industrial Average +1.9% YTD