Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are lower;
• The odds are for a sideways to down day; the daily bias since October 30 is up; elevated volatility – watch for the break above 3559.00 and break below 3520.00 for clarity; NASDAQ is driving the market
• Key economic data report:
  • JOLTS Job opening ( 6.50M est.; prev. 6.49M ) at 11:00 AM
  • IBD/TIPP Economic Survey at TBD

Directional Bias Before Open:

Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure Daily: Uptrend Resumed

120-Min: Up 30-Min: Up-Side 15-Min: Up-Side 6-Min: Down-Side

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3547.48, 3529.05 and 3505.50
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 3564.34, 3596.13, and 3609.45
• Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 3559.00, the high of 3:00 AM and break below 3520.00, the low of 6:00 AM

Pre-Open

• On Monday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (December 2020) closed at 3546.50 and the index closed at 3550.50 – a spread of about -4.00 points; futures closed at 3544.00 for the day; the fair value is +2.50
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures are mixed – at 8:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -7.75; Dow up by +189, and NASDAQ down by -199.25

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Shanghai closed down
• European markets are mostly higher – Italy and STOXX 600 are lower
• Currencies:
  

  Up	Down
  Dollar index GBP/USD USD/CHF USD/CAD INR/USD AUD/USD NZD/USD	EUR/USD USD/JPY

• Commodities:
  

  Up	Down
  Crude Oil NatGas Gold Silver Platinum Sugar (Unch.)	Copper Palladium Coffee Cotton Cocoa

• Bond
  • 10-years yield closed at 0.958%, up from November 6 close of 0.820%;
  • 30-years is at 1.7521% up from 1.599%
  • 2-years yield is at 0.157% up from 0.165%
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.801 up from 0.655
• VIX
  • At 24.62 @ 7:00 AM; down -1.13 from the last close; below 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high =  41.16 on October 16; low =  22.41 on November 9
  • Sentiment: Risk-Off-to-Neutral

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:

Monthly	Uptrend under pressure October 2020 was a red candle with long upper shadow and smaller lower shadows; Stochastic %K is below %D from above 90; potential %D Bearish Divergence RSI-9 below 60 from near 70; below a downtrend line that it broke above briefly in August Retreating from the upper band of a 120-month regression channel; The sequence of higher highs and higher lows is resumed
Weekly:	The week ending on November 6 was a large green candle with small upper and lower shadows; the index opened above the previous week’s close and then traded higher for the rest of the week closing above its high Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K crossed above %D; above 80 RSI (9) turned up from 50; above 60 The week was up +239.48 or +7.3%; the 5-week ATR is 164.10 An up week; third in the last five weeks and fourth in the last ten weeks The weekly week pivot point=3439.41, R1=3599.08, R2=3688.72; S1=3349.77, S2=3190.10; R1 pivot level was breached Above 10-week EMA, 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA Uptrend since March 23 Under Pressure
Daily	A red Hanging Man candle that gapped up at the open and made high in the early hours of trading but declining in the afternoon and closing near the lows; the gap maintained broke above a symmetrical triangle – 50% extension target is near 3710.00; 61.8% extension target is near 3750.00; and 100% extension target is near 3900.00 %K is crossing below %D, from above 90; potential Bearish Divergence RSI-9 rising nearing 70 Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day, and 200-day SMA Uptrend Resumed
2-Hour (E-mini futures)	Moving down after making the all-time high of 3668.00 at 8:00 AM on November 9 to the last high of 3541.00, which had become resistance; trending up since 2:00 PM on October 30; RSI-21 moved down from near 90 to below 50 At/below EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Up
30-Minute (E-mini futures)	Moving down since 8:30 AM on November 9; moving sideways since 4:00 PM RSI-21 moving between 40 and 50 %K is below %D Above EMA20; which is above EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Up-Side
15-Minute (E-mini futures)	Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) moving sideways since 9:45 PM The Bollinger Band is relatively stable Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is below %D around 40 Bias: Up-Side

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mostly higher on Monday, November 9 in higher volume. NASDAQ Composite closed down. Indices gapped up at the open and made day’s high in the early hours of trading and then moved sideways before declining in the afternoon and closing near the lows. Most made Hanging Man or Bearish Engulfing or similar bearish candlestick formations. All but three S&P sectors – Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, and Technology – closed higher.

S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones Transportation Average, NASDAQ Composite, and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index made all-time intraday highs but not the closing highs. Russell 2000 made both highs and NYSE Composite made neither highs.

From Briefing.com:

The S&P 500 advanced as much as 3.9% on Monday after Pfizer (PFE 39.20, +2.80, +7.7%) and BioNTech (BNTX 104.80, +12.80, +13.9%) announced that their collaborative COVID-19 vaccine was more than 90% effective in patients without evidence of prior infection. Investors took profits, though, leaving the benchmark index up 1.2% for the session. Investors also rotated out of growth stocks and into value/cyclical/small-cap stocks, which benefited the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+3.0%) and Russell 2000 (+3.7%) at the expense of the Nasdaq Composite (-1.5%). Each index set new intraday highs shortly after the open, but gradually retraced gains throughout the day and into the close. […] The energy (+14.2%) and financials (+8.2%) sectors finished comfortably atop the leaderboard, aided by noticeably higher oil prices ($40.31, +3.17, +8.5%) and curve-steepening activity caused by selling in longer-dated Treasuries. The consumer discretionary (-1.6%), information technology (-0.7%), consumer staples (-0.5%), and communication services (-0.3%) sectors closed lower. The 2-yr yield increased two basis points to 0.18%, while the 10-yr yield increased 11 basis points to 0.96%. The U.S. Dollar Index advanced 0.6% to 92.82. […] Nasdaq Composite +30.6% YTD S&P 500 +9.9% YTD Dow Jones Industrial Average +2.2% YTD Russell 2000 +2.2% YTD