Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are higher; moving sideways since 9:30 PM after bouncing up from NYSE close on Tuesday
- Broke above Double Bottom on 15-minute charts at 8:30 AM
- Economic news will have significant impact on price-action
- The odds are for an up day with elevated volatility – watch for break above 2881.00 for change of fortune
- Key economic data due:
- Advanced GDP ( -4.8% vs. -4.0% est.; prev.2.1%) at 8:30 AM
- Advanced GDP Price Index (1.3% vs. 1.0% est.; prev. 1.3%) at 8:30 AM
- Pending Home Sales ( -13.3% est.; prev. 2.4%) at 10:00 AM
- FOMC Statement at 2:00 PM
- Fed Funds Rate ( >0.25% est.; prev. <0.25%) at 2:00 PM
- FOMC Press Conference at 2:30 PM
Directional Bias Before Open:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2889.68, 2860.71 and 2852.89
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2905.54, 2921.15 and 2929.70
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2901.00, the high of 2:00 AM and break below 2887.50, the low of 3:30 AM
- On Tuesday at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June 2020) closed at 2856.00 and the index closed at 2863.39 – a spread of about -7.25 points; futures closed at 2867.25 for the day; the fair value is -11.25
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures are higher – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +35.75; Dow by +338 and NASDAQ by +119.00
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed higher – Tokyo was closed for trading
- European markets are mixed – Germany, U.K., Spain and Italy are higher, France, Switzerland and STOXX 600 are down
- Dollar index
- Crude Oil
- 10-yrs yield closed at 0.610%, down from April 27 close of 0.656%;
- 30-years is at 1.206%, down from 1.251%
- 2-years yield is at 0.234% down from 0.227%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.376 down from 0.429
- Is at 32.84 down -0.73 from April 28 close; below 5-day SMA;
- Down from all time high of 85.47 on March 18; recent high 47.77 on April 21, recent low 37.31 on April 14
- Risk-Off to Neutral
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:
|2-Hour (e-mini future)||
|30-Minute (e-mini future)||
|15-Minute (e-mini future)||
Major U.S. indices closed mixed on Tuesday, April 28 in higher volume. S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ Composite and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index traded down. Russell 2000, Dow Jones Transportation Average and NYSE Composite closed up. The indices opened higher making day’s high but then mostly traded down. All but three S&P sectors – Technology, Healthcare, Telecom – closed higher.
The S&P 500 declined 0.5% on Tuesday in a mixed session. Large-cap technology and health care stocks lagged, while reopening enthusiasm continued to flow into the small-cap Russell 2000 (+1.3%) and S&P MidCap 400 (+1.0%). The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 0.1%, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.4%.[…]
Some of those included the small-cap and mid-cap stocks, as previously noted, but also the cyclical S&P 500 energy (+2.2%), materials (+2.0%), industrials (+1.8%), and financials (+0.9%) sectors.
Conversely, the large-cap stocks that were deemed as relatively safe, and thus outperformed over the past few months, lost some of their appeal today and heavily dragged on the broader market. Those were found in the health care (-2.1%), communication services (-1.9%), and information technology (-1.4%) sectors.[…]
U.S. Treasuries reclaimed most of yesterday’s losses, driving yields lower across the curve. The 2-yr yield declined three basis points to 0.20%, and the 10-yr yield declined five basis points to 0.61%. The U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.2% to 99.88. WTI crude declined 4.6%, or $0.60, to $12.37/bbl, although it was down as much as 22% at one point during the session.[…]
• The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for April plunged to 86.9 (Briefing.com consensus 86.5) from a downwardly revised 118.8 (from 120.0) for March. The April reading is the lowest since June 2014.
o The key takeaway from the report is that consumers, while thinking positively about things reopening again, are still less optimistic about their financial prospects, which could be a headwind for spending activity during the recovery phase.
• The advance goods trade deficit totaled $64.2 bln in March after a $59.9 bln deficit in February. Advance retail inventories declined 1.3% in March after decreasing 0.3% in February. Advance wholesale inventories decreased 1.0% in March after decreasing 0.7% in February.
• The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index for February increased 3.5% (Briefing.com consensus 3.7%).