Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are higher; moving up since 1:00 AM from 2755.25 and after making a Bullish Divergence on 15-minute chart
- The odds are for an up day with elevated volatility – watch for break below 2793.50 for change of fortune
- Key economic data due:
- Durable Goods Orders (-14.4% vs. -12.0% est.; prev. 1.1%) at 8:30 AM
- Core Durable Goods Orders (-0.2% vs. -6.1% est; prev. -0.7%) at 8:30 AM
- Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment ( 67.8 est.; prev. 71.0) at 10:00 AM
- Revised UoM Inflation Expectations (pre. 2.1%) art 10:00 AM
Directional Bias Before Open:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2797.11, 2777.47 and 2762.10
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2821.37, 2844.90 and 2857.25
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2813.00, the high of 2:30 PM on Thursday and break below 2793.50, the low of 8:00 AM
- On Thursday at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June 2020) closed at 2788.00 and the index closed at 2797.80 – a spread of about -9.75 points; futures closed at 2780.75 for the day; the fair value is +7.75
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures are higher – at 8:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +19.00; Dow by +147 and NASDAQ by +42.75
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mostly down – Sydney was up
- European markets are mostly lower – Italy and Switzerland are higher
- Dollar index
- Crude Oil
- 10-yrs yield is at 0.606%, down from April 23 close of 0.613%;
- 30-years is at 1.189%, down from 1.204%
- 2-years yield is at 0.221% down from 0.234%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.385 down from 0.379
- Is at 40.15 down -1.23 from April 23 close; below 5-day SMA;
- Down from all time high of 85.47 on March 18
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:
|2-Hour (e-mini future)||
|30-Minute (e-mini future)||
|15-Minute (e-mini future)||
Most indices made Gravestone Doji type of candlestick formation. Indices opened higher and made highs in the first hour of trading. They declined in the afternoon and closed near the lows.
The S&P 500 advanced as much as 1.6% on Thursday after the number of weekly initial claims declined to about 4.4 million, but stocks gave up gains following a negative report regarding a potential COVID-19 treatment. The benchmark index finished just below its flat line with a 0.1% decline.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.2%) and Nasdaq Composite (unch) also closed little changed, while the Russell 2000 (+1.0%) outperformed.[…]
The S&P 500 sectors finished mixed with six closing higher and five closing lower. The energy sector (+3.0%) outperformed amid a 21.7% spike in WTI crude futures ($16.80/bbl, +3.00), which are now up 45% since Tuesday’s settlement price. The utilities (-1.8%), real estate (-1.2%), and consumer staples (-1.0%) sectors underperformed.[…]
U.S. Treasuries traded near their flat lines during the session. The 2-yr yield increased one basis point to 0.22%, while the 10-yr yield declined one basis point to 0.61%. The U.S. Dollar Index increased 0.1% to 100.50.[…]
• Initial claims for the week ending April 18 decreased by 810,000 to 4.427 million (Briefing.com consensus 4.0 million). Continuing claims for the week ending April 11 increased by 4,064,000 to 15.976 million (a record high).
o The key takeaway from this report, which covers the period in which the survey for the April Employment Situation Report was conducted, is that it presents some hope that the peak of the layoffs following the COVID-19 shutdowns has passed. Nonetheless, it is also a reminder of how bad things are on the labor front.
• New home sales decreased 15.4% m/m in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 627,000 units (Briefing.com consensus 655,000) from a downwardly revised 741,000 (from 765,000) in February. On a yr/yr basis, new home sales, which are counted when a contract is signed, were down 9.5%.
o The key takeaway from the report is that it isn’t as bad as feared, although COVID-19 shutdown issues didn’t ramp up until the latter half of the month, which is harbinger presumably of decidedly weaker activity in April.