Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are higher; rising since 8:00 PM
- The odds are for an up day with elevated volatility – watch for break below 2728.25 for change of fortune
- Key economic data due:
- HPI ( 0.4% est.; prev. 0.3%) at 9:00 AM
Directional Bias Before Open:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2760.75, 2732.79 and 2727.10
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2785.54, 2805.87 and 2820.43
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2777.50, the high of 9:30 AM on Tuesday and break below 2728.25, the low of 0:30 AM
- On Tuesday at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June 2020) closed at 2727.00 and the index closed at 2736.56 – a spread of about -9.50 points; futures closed at 2732.00 for the day; the fair value is -5.00
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures are higher – at 6:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +31.00; Dow by +239 and NASDAQ by +93.50
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai, Hong Kong, Mumbai and Seoul closed up; Tokyo, Sydney and Singapore closed down
- European markets are higher
- Dollar index
- Crude Oil
- 10-yrs yield closed at 0.571%, down from April 20 close of 0.626%;
- 30-years is at 1.162%, down from 1.237%
- 2-years yield is at 0.205% down from 0.214%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.366 down from 0.412
- Is at 44.35 down -1.06 from April 21 close; above 5-day SMA;
- Down from all time high of 85.47 on March 18
- Risk-Neutral to Risk-On
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:
|2-Hour (e-mini future)||
|30-Minute (e-mini future)||
|15-Minute (e-mini future)||
Indices opened lower with a gap and then mostly traded lower and closed near day/s lows. All S&P sectors closed lower. Global exchanges were also down and most commodities too. Treasury yields fell.
The S&P 500 fell 3.1% on Tuesday, closing near session lows for its second straight decline, as risk sentiment remained suppressed by the ongoing turmoil in the oil futures market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 2.7%, the Nasdaq Composite declined 3.5%, and the Russell 2000 declined 2.3%.
The May WTI contract officially expired at $10.01/bbl after falling negative yesterday, but the fundamental problems that drove the contract into negative territory continued to plague the rest of the WTI futures curve. The June WTI contract plunged 43.0%, or $8.70, to $11.57/bbl, although it did touch $6.50/bbl at its low.[…]
In the U.S. Treasury market, longer-dated tenors continued to exhibit strength in a safety trade. The 2-yr yield declined one basis point to 0.20%, and the 10-yr yield declined six basis points to 0.57%. The U.S. Dollar Index increased 0.2% to 100.17.[…]
• Existing home sales declined 8.5% m/m in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.27 million (Briefing.com consensus 5.35 million). Total sales were up 0.8% year-over-year, marking the ninth straight month that they have increased on a year-over-year basis.
o The key takeaway from the report is that it showed existing home sales activity was relatively soft before the COVID-19 impact, with low inventory and high prices crimping sales. Existing home sales are counted when the deals are closed, so the sales activity for March is predicated mostly on contracts signed in January and February.