Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are higher;
- The odds are for an up day with elevated volatility
- Futures are up nearly 20 points and there is great chance that the next move could be sideways from pre-open low levels
- Key economic data due:
- Durable Goods ( 2.4% vs. 1.2% est. ; prev. -2.1% ) at 8:30 AM
- Core Durable Goods (-0.1% vs. 0.4% est. ; prev. -0.1%) at 8:30 AM
- S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI ( 2.6% vs. 2.5% est.; prev. 2.2% ) at 9:00 AM
- CB Consumer Confidence ( est. 128.2 ; prev. 126.5 ) at 10:00 AM
- Richmond Manufacturing Index ( est. -3; prev. -5) at 10:00 AM
Directional Bias Before Open:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3242.49, 3234.50 and 3232.43
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 3258.85, 3260.86 and 3277.19
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 3263.50, the high of 2:00 AM and break below 3241.75, the low of 6:00 AM
- On Monday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (March 2020) closed at 3242.25 and the index closed at 3243.63 – a spread of about -1.50 points; futures closed at 3239.50 for the day; the fair value is +2.75
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures are higher – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +18.0; Dow by +123 and NASDAQ by +68.00
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East were closed mostly lower – Shanghai and Hong Kong were closed for trading
- European markets are higher
- Dollar index
- Crude Oil
- 10-yrs yield is at 1.620%, up from January 27 close of 1.681%;
- 30-years is at 2.071%, up from 2.182%
- 2-years yield is at 1.431%, down from 1.433%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.189 down from 0.192
- Is at 17.00 down -1.23 from January 27; above 5-day SMA
- Next high resistance is 21.46, the high of October 2, 2019; the low support is the low was 11.72 on December 26
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:
|2-Hour (e-mini future)||
|30-Minute (e-mini future)||
|15-Minute (e-mini future)||
Major indices gapped down at the open and did not close to closing the gap. However, most closed near the open and made doji like candles.
The large-cap indices retreated more than 1.5% on Monday, as the continued outbreak of the coronavirus triggered more profit taking and some overdue selling. The S&P 500 lost 1.6%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.6%, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.9%. The Russell 2000 declined 1.1%.
Treasuries. The 2-yr yield fell five basis points to 1.43%, and the 10-yr yield fell eight basis points to 1.61%. The U.S. Dollar Index increased 0.1% to 97.94.
• New home sales decreased 0.4% m/m in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 694,000 units (Briefing.com consensus 725,000) from a downwardly revised 697,000 (from 719,000) in November.
o The key takeaway from the report is that new home sales were still strong on a year-over-year basis (+23.0%), benefiting from the drop in mortgage rates and the extremely tight supply of existing homes for sale.