Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are lower;
- The odds are for a down day – watch for break above 3323.25 for change of fortune
- No key economic data due:
Directional Bias Before Open:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3318.86, 3309.97 and 3302.97
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 3321.24, 3329.88 and 3343.31
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 3316.25, the high of 2:30 AM and break below 3307.25, the low of 3:30 AM
- On Friday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (March 2020) closed at 3328.25 and the index closed at 3329.15 – a spread of about -1.00 points; futures closed at 3325.00 for the day; the fair value is +3.25
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures are lower – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -9.75; Dow by -66 and NASDAQ by -29.00
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed down;
- European markets are lower
- Dollar index
- Crude Oil
- 10-yrs yield closed at 1.787%, down from January 16 close of 1.809%;
- 30-years is at 2.246%, down from 2.261%
- 2-years yield is at 1.522%, down from 1.563%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.265 down from 0.287
- Is at 12.94 up +0.62 from January 17; above 5-day SMA
- Recent high was 16.39 on January 6; recent low was 11.72 on December 26
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:
|2-Hour (e-mini future)||
|30-Minute (e-mini future)||
|15-Minute (e-mini future)||
For the week, major U.S. indices closed up in mostly higher volume. NASDAQ Composite traded in lower volume. All S&P sectors except Energy closed up for the week.
The S&P 500 advanced 0.4% on Friday, as upbeat economic data helped extend the market’s record run. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.2%) and Nasdaq Composite (+0.3%) also closed at new highs, while the Russell 2000 (-0.3%) finished lower.
U.S. Treasuries finished mixed amid some curve-steepening activity. The 2-yr yield declined one basis point to 1.56%, while the 10-yr yield increased three basis points to 1.84%. The U.S. Dollar Index increased 0.3% to 97.62. WTI crude increased 0.1% to $58.55/bbl.
• Total housing starts surged 16.9% m/m in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.608 million (Briefing.com consensus 1.380 million), driven by an 11.2% increase in single-family starts and a 30% increase in multi-unit starts. Building permits, meanwhile, declined 3.9% m/m to 1.416 million (Briefing.com consensus 1.460 million), with single-family permits down 0.5%.
o The key takeaway from the report is the huge starts number and the recognition that the largest homebuilding region — the South — saw an impressive 11.3% increase in single-family starts. That’s a good sign as it relates to potential supply coming online and it’s good simply as a positive growth indicator.
• Industrial production declined 0.3% in December (Briefing.com consensus +0.1%), pressured by a 5.6% decline in utilities output that stemmed from unseasonably warm weather. The capacity utilization rate fell to 77.0% from an upwardly revised 77.4% (from 77.3%) in November.
o The key takeaway from the report is that manufacturing output increased 0.2% despite a large 4.6% drop in the output of motor vehicles and parts. Excluding the motor vehicle sector, factory output increased 0.5%.
• The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment for January declined to 99.1 (Briefing.com consensus 98.9) from 99.3 in November.
• Job openings declined to 6.800 million from a revised 7.361 million (from 7.267 million) in November, according to the JOLTS report.