Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are lower;
- The odds are for a sideways to a down day – watch for break above 3289.75 for change of fortune
- Key economic data due:
- PPI ( 0.1% vs. 0.2% est.; prev. 0.0%) at 8:30 AM
- Core CPI (0.1% vs. 0.2% est.; prev. -0.2%) at 8:30 AM
- Empire State Manufacturing Index (4.8 vs. 3.7 est.; prev. 3.5) at 8:30 AM
Directional Bias Before Open:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3277.19, 3268.43 and 3260.86
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 3288.86, 3294.25 and 3301.92
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 3288.50, the high of 7:30 AM and break below 3278.25, the low of 10:00 PM
- On Tuesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (March 2020) closed at 3283.25 and the index closed at 3283.13 – a spread of about +0.25 points; futures closed at 3288.00 for the day; the fair value is -4.75
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures are lower – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -6.25; Dow by -74 and NASDAQ by -10.00
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mostly down – Sydney was up;
- European markets are lower
- Dollar index
- Crude Oil
- 10-yrs yield closed at 1.785%, down from January 13 close of 1.848%;
- 30-years is at 2.239%, down from 2.307%
- 2-years yield is at 1.568%, down from 1.592%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.217 down from 0.256
- Is at 12.73 up 0.34 from January 14; above 5-day SMA
- Recent high was 16.39 on January 6; recent low was 11.72 on December 26
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:
|2-Hour (e-mini future)||
|30-Minute (e-mini future)||
|15-Minute (e-mini future)||
[BRIEFING.COM] Each of the large-cap indices set new intraday highs on Tuesday, but only the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.1%) managed to finish higher. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both declined 0.2%, while the small-cap Russell 2000 rose 0.4%.
From a sector standpoint, the S&P 500 information technology (-0.6%) and real estate (-0.5%) sectors were today’s laggards, while the health care (+0.5%) and utilities (+0.3%) sectors finished with modest gains. Apple (AAPL 312.68, -4.28, -1.4%) weighed on the tech sector after shares were downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at Atlantic Equities.
U.S. Treasuries finished the quiet session on a mostly higher note. The 2-yr yield was unchanged at 1.58%, and the 10-yr yield declined three basis points to 1.82%. The U.S. Dollar Index finished flat at 97.38. WTI crude increased 0.3%, or $0.18, to $58.30/bbl.
• The Consumer Price Index for December brought good news in relative terms, as there weren’t any overshoots compared to expectations. Total CPI was up 0.2% m/m, as expected, while core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was up a softer-than-expected 0.1% (Briefing.com consensus +0.2%).
o The key takeaway from the report is that it won’t cause any immediate re-think of the Fed’s policy position. Core CPI has been up 2.3% yr/yr for three straight months, so the inflation rate isn’t running away from the Fed, which seems to have adopted a willingness to let inflation run above its longer-run goal for a bit before moving on rates; moreover, the CPI data takes a backseat to the PCE price data as the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, and the latest report showed core-PCE inflation up just 1.6% yr/yr.
• The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined to 102.7 from 104.7.