Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are higher; moving sideways since 10:30 PM on Sunday
- The odds are for a to sideways to an up day – watch for break below 3010.75 for change of fortune
- Retail Sales may have an impact
- Key economic data due:
- Retail Sales ( 0.4% vs. 0.1% est. ; prev. 0.4%) at 8:30 AM
- Core Retail Sales ( 0.4% vs. 0.1% est. ; prev. 0.4%) at 8:30 AM
- Import Prices ( -0.9% vs. -0.7% est. ; prev. 0.0% ) at 8:30 AM
- Capacity Utilization ( 77.9% vs. 78.2% est. ; prev. 78.1%) at 9:15 AM
- Industrial Production (0.0% vs. 0.1% est. ; prev. 0.4%) at 9:15 AM
- Business Inventories (est. 0.4%; prev. 0.5%) at 10:00 AM
- NAHB Housing Market Index (est. 64; prev. 64) at 10:00 AM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai, Tokyo and Sydney closed down; Hong Kong, Mumbai, Seoul and Singapore closed higher
- European markets are higher
- Crude Oil
- 10-yrs yield closed at 2.092%, down from July 12 close of 2.106%;
- 30-years is at 2.612%, down from 2.633%
- 2-years yield is at 1.833%, down from 1.857%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.259, up from 0.249
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3011.00, 3008.77 and 3004.51
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 3017.80, 3022.65 and 3027.51
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 3023.50, the high of 3:30 AM on Monday and break below 3012.50, the low of 1:00 PM on Monday
- On Monday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 3018.00 and the index closed at 3014.30 – a spread of about +3.75 points; futures closed at 3017.25 for the day; the fair value is +0.75
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures are higher – at 7:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +2.50; Dow by +34 and NASDAQ by +9.00
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend resumed
- Daily: Uptrend
- 30-Min: Up-Side
- 15-Min: Side
- 6-Min: Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:
|2-Hour (e-mini future)||
|30-Minute (e-mini future)||
|15-Minute (e-mini future)||
Major U.S. indices closed mixed on Monday, July 15 in lower volume. Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite closed higher. Russell 2000, Dow Jones Transportation Average NYSE Composite and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index closed down. The day’s price range was narrow.
The stock market eked out small gains on Monday. The major averages struggled to find direction, but the S&P 500 (+0.02%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.1%), and Nasdaq Composite (+0.2%) did manage to set new record closes. The small-cap Russell 2000 underperformed with a loss of 0.5%.
Their collective weakness weighed on the S&P 500 financials sector (-0.5%), while lower oil prices ($59.51/bbl, -$0.70, -1.2%) put some pressure on the underperforming energy sector (-0.9%). The industrials sector (-0.4%) was the one other group to finish lower amid weakness from its top-weighted components, including Boeing (BA 361.61, -3.72, -1.0%) and General Electric (GE 10.27, -0.10, -1.0%).
U.S. Treasuries finished slightly higher in a quiet session. The 2-yr yield and the 10-yr yield declined one basis point each to 1.83% and 2.09%, respectively. The U.S. Dollar Index advanced 0.1% to 96.95.
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey for July was Monday’s lone economic report:
• It checked in at 4.3 versus a June reading of -8.6. That was below the Briefing.com consensus estimate of 5.0, yet above the 0.0 demarcation line between expansion and contraction. Furthermore, there was a bump in the index for future business conditions to 30.8 from 25.7.