Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are higher; moving up since 9:30 PM on Tuesday; back within a trading range between 2899.50 and 2884.25 for past two days;
- The odds are for a sideways to down day – watch for break above 2891.25 and break below 2883.75 for clarity
- Key economic data due:
- CPI ( 0.4% vs. 0.3% est.; prev. 0.2%) at 8:30 AM
- Core CPI (0.1% vs. 0.2% est.; prev. 0.1%) at 8:30 AM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai, Sydney, Seoul and Singapore closed up; Hong Kong. Tokyo and Mumbai closed down
- European markets are mostly higher – U.K. and Switzerland are down
- Dollar index
- Crude Oil
- 10-yrs yield closed at 2.494%, down from April 8 close of 2.519%;
- 30-years is at 2.909%, down from 2.925%
- 2-years yield is at 2.355%, down from 2.364%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.139, down from 0.155
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2873.33, 2867.14 and 2858.75
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2886.88, 2891.15 and 2895.95
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2891.25, the high of 6:30 AM and break below 2883.75, the low of 8:30 AM
- On Tuesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2883.75 and the index closed at 2878.20 – a spread of about +5.50 points; futures closed at 2882.50 for the day; the fair value is +1.25
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures are higher – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +4.25; Dow by +43 and NASDAQ by +14.00
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend
- Daily: Uptrend
- 120-Min: Side
- 30-Min: Side
- 15-Min: Side-Up
- 6-Min: Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:
|2-Hour (e-mini future)||
|30-Minute (e-mini future)||
|15-Minute (e-mini future)||
Major U.S. indices closed mostly lower on Tuesday, April 9 in higher volume. The day’s tone was decisive down. Dow Jones Industrial Average is leading the market down. It is at the upper bound of the gap-up of April 1. On 2-hour chart both the futures and cash index of DJIA are forming a head-&-shoulder pattern. A break below 26071.69 would be bearish for DJIA, which could weigh negatively on S&P 500 too.
The S&P 500 lost 0.6% on Tuesday, as negative macroeconomic headlines and a bit of corporate news fostered some broad-based profit taking. Tuesday’s decline snapped an eight-session winning streak for the benchmark index.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.7%, the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.6%, and the Russell 2000 lost 1.2%.
The S&P 500 industrials (-1.4%) and financial (-0.9%) sectors were added weights for the market following some corporate developments.
U.S. Treasuries saw increased buying interest following the IMF growth cut for 2019. The 2-yr yield and the 10-yr yield decreased two basis points each to 2.34% and 2.50%, respectively. The U.S. Dollar Index finished flat at 97.01. WTI crude lost 0.5% to $64.06/bbl.
• The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for March ticked higher to 101.8 from the prior month’s reading of 101.7.
• The February Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed that job openings decreased to 7.087 million from a revised 7.625 million (from 7.581 million) in January.
- S&P 500 Sectors
|Sector||Relative Strength (Last Month – March)||Relative Strength (April)||%K vs. %D (April)|
|Consumer Discretionary||XLY (Cross-Over)||XLY||Above|
|Consumer Staples||XLP (Cross-Over)||SPY (Cross-Under)||Above|
|Utility||XLU (Cross-Over)||SPY (Cross-Under)||Below|
|Real Estate||XLRE (Cross-Over)||SPY (Cross-Under)||Above|