Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are higher; moving up since 6:30 AM after finding support at a pattern line that was broken earlier
- Odds are for an up day – watch for break below 2822.00 for change of fortune
- Key economic data due:
- Core PCE Price Index (0.1% vs. 0.2% est.; prev. 0.2%) at 8:30 AM
- Personal Spending (0.1% vs. 0.3% est.; prev. -0.5%) at 8:30 AM
- Personal Income (0.2% vs. 0.3% est.; prev. -0.1% ) at 8:30 AM
- Chicago PMI ( est. 61.1; prev. 64.7) at 9:45 AM
- Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment (est. 97.8; prev. 97.8) at 10:00 AM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed higher
- European markets are up
- Dollar index
- Crude Oil
- 10-yrs yield closed at 2.389%, up from March 27 close of 2.374%;
- 30-years is at 2.811%, down from 2.821%
- 2-years yield is at 2.282%, up from 2.266%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.123, down from 0.168
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2807.97, 2798.77 and 2787.72
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2825.56, 2829.71 and 2846.16
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2834.00, the high of 7:00 AM and break below 2822.00, the low of 6:30 AM
- On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2820.00 and the index closed at 2815.44 – a spread of about +4.50 points; futures closed at 2821.00 for the day; the fair value is -1.00
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures are higher – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +10.50; Dow by +116 and NASDAQ by +32.00
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend
- Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
- 120-Min: Side
- 30-Min: Up
- 15-Min: Side-Up
- 6-Min: Side-Up
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:
|2-Hour (e-mini future)||
|30-Minute (e-mini future)||
|15-Minute (e-mini future)||
Major U.S. indices closed higher on Thursday, March 28 in lower volume. Most indices made small spinning top harami candles. Dow Jones Transportation Average and Russell 2000 made larger green real bodies.
The S&P 500 increased 0.4% on Thursday, led by shares of the recently-battered financial and industrial stocks. Stocks drifted higher as Treasuries stabilized, while investors continued to wait for further clarity on a U.S.-China trade resolution, earnings guidance, and U.S. economic growth prospects.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.4%, the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.3%, and the Russell 2000 gained 0.9%.
The S&P 500 materials (+1.0%), financials (+0.8%), and industrial (+0.8%) sectors outperformed the broader market. Conversely, the utilities (-1.3%) and communication services (-0.5%) sectors were the lone groups to finish with losses.
U.S. Treasuries edged lower, pushing yields higher. The 2-yr yield and the 10-yr yield increased two basis points each to 2.23% and 2.39%, respectively. The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.5% to 97.24. WTI crude decreased 0.3% to $59.27/bbl.
• Initial claims for the week ending March 23 decreased by 5,000 to 211,000 (Briefing.com consensus 220,000) from the revised prior week level of 216,000 (from 221,000) while continuing claims for the week ending March 16 increased by 13,000 to 1.756 mln from the revised prior week level of 1.743 mln (from 1.750 mln).
o The key takeaway from the report is that initial claims have approached the lower end of range that has been in effect over the past year while continuing claims hover near the middle of their range from the past year.
• The third estimate for Q4 GDP showed a downward revision to 2.2% from 2.6% (Briefing.com consensus 2.5%) and a downward revision to the GDP Price Deflator to 1.7% from 1.8% (Briefing.com consensus 1.8%).
o The key takeaway from the report is that even with the downward revision, real GDP increased 3.0% from the fourth quarter of 2017 to the fourth quarter of 2018, down slightly from the previous estimate of 3.1%. Measured from the 2017 annual level to the 2018 annual level, real GDP increased 2.9%.
• Pending Home Sales decreased 0.1% in February (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%). Today’s reading follows a revised increase of 4.3% in January (from 4.6%).
- S&P 500 Sectors
|Sector||Daily Trend (Visual)||Relative Strength (Last Month – February)||Relative Strength (March)||%K vs. %D (March)|
|Consumer Discretionary||Down||SPY (Cross-Under)||XLY (Cross-Over)||Above|
|Consumer Staples||Down||SPY||XLP (Cross-Over)||Above|
|Utility||Under Pressure||SPY||XLU (Cross-Over)||Below|
|Real Estate||Down||SPY (Cross-Under)||XLRE (Cross-Over)||Above|