Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are higher; moving mostly up since 2:00 PM on Monday;
- Odds are for an up to a sideways day with elevated volatility – watch for break above 2823.75 and break below 2809.25 for clarity
- Key economic data due:
- Building Permits (1.30M vs. 1,32M est.; prev. 1.32M) at 8:30 AM
- Housing Starts (1.16M vs. 1.22M est.; prev. 1.27M) at 8:30 AM
- S&P/ CS Composite-20 HPI (-3.6% vs. 4.3% est.; prev. 4.1%) at 9:00 AM
- CB Consumer Confidence (est. 132.1; prev. 131.4) at 10:00 AM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Shanghai was down
- European markets are up
- Dollar index
- Crude Oil
- Sugar (unch.)
- 10-yrs yield is at 2.435%, up from March 25 close of 2.420%;
- 30-years is at 2.889%, up from 2.867%
- 2-years yield is at 2.270%, up from 2.241%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.165, down from 0.179
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2796.17, 2785.02, and 2777.96
- Crtical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2823.28, 2838.04 and 2846.16
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2823.75, the high of 8:00 AM and break below 2809.25, the low of 4:30 AM
- On Monday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2803.50 and the index closed at 2798.38 – a spread of about +5.00 points; futures closed at 2807.00 for the day; the fair value is -3.50
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +12.00; Dow by +133 and NASDAQ by +37.00
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend
- Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
- 120-Min: Down-Side
- 30-Min: Side-Up
- 15-Min: Side-Up
- 6-Min: Up
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:
|2-Hour (e-mini future)||
|30-Minute (e-mini future)||
|15-Minute (e-mini future)||
Major U.S. indices closed mostly lower on Monday, March 25 in lower volume. Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 closed up. Major indices made doji candle or similar candle near the close of Friday. Most had almost equal sized upper and lower shadows indicating indecision.
The S&P 500 decreased 0.1% on Monday in a session that showed little conviction from buyers or sellers. Lingering concerns about global economic growth tempered buying interest and contributed to a further decline in U.S. Treasury yields.
The Nasdaq Composite also lost 0.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Russell 2000 outperformed with gains of 0.1% and 0.5%, respectively.
The S&P 500 information technology (-0.4%) and financial (-0.4%) sectors dragged the broader market lower. Conversely, the consumer discretionary (+0.6%) and industrial (+0.2%) sectors outperformed.
Growth concerns were reinforced by another discouraging economic report from Germany. Germany’s ifo Business Climate Index for March showed a continued deterioration of the manufacturing sector, which was notable, given Germany’s status as a key export center.
U.S. Treasury yields steadily declined throughout the day on dwindling growth expectations. The 2-yr yield dropped seven basis points to 2.25%, and the 10-yr yield dropped four basis points to 2.42% after briefly touching 2.39% — its lowest level since Dec. 2017. The U.S. Dollar Index lost 0.1% to 96.53.
- S&P 500 Sectors
|Sector||Daily Trend (Visual)||Relative Strength (Last Month – February)||Relative Strength (March)||%K vs. %D (March)|
|Consumer Discretionary||Down||SPY (Cross-Under)||XLY (Cross-Over)||Above|
|Utility||Under Pressure||SPY||XLU (Cross-Over)||Above|
|Real Estate||Down||SPY (Cross-Under)||XLRE (Cross-Over)||Below|