Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are lower; moving within a down-sloping channel since 11:00 AM on Wednesday
- Odds are for a sideways to an up day with chance for a breakout – watch for break below 2811.50 for change of fortune
- Key economic data due:
- Unemployment Claims (229K vs. 225K est.; prev., 223K) at 8:30 AM
- Import Prices (0.6% vs. 0.3% est.; prev. 0.1%) at 8:30 AM
- New Home Sales (est. 622K; prev. 621K ) at 10:30 AM
- U.K. Parliament Brexit Vote – sometime today
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mostly up – Shanghai and Tokyo were down
- European markets are higher
- Dollar index
- Crude Oil
- 10-yrs yield is at 2.621%, up from March 13 close of 2.611%;
- 30-years is at 3.014%, up from 3.010%
- 2-years yield is at 2.450%, down from 2.458%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.171, up from 0.153
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2809.03, 2799.78 and 2787.84
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2821.24, 2843.89 and 2862.08
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2821.75, the high of 8:30 AM and break below 2811.50, the low of 6:30 AM
- On Wednesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2816.25 and the index closed at 2810.92 – a spread of about +5.25 points; futures closed at 2819.50 for the day; the fair value is -3.25
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is mixed – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +0.25; Dow down by -86; and NASDAQ up by +3.75
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend
- Daily: Up Under Pressure
- 120-Min: Up
- 30-Min: Up-Side
- 15-Min: Up-Side
- 6-Min: Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:
|2-Hour (e-mini future)||
|30-Minute (e-mini future)||
|15-Minute (e-mini future)||
Major U.S. indices closed higher on Wednesday, March 13 in higher volume. S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index are trying to break above recent highs. Others are still below their recent highs.
The S&P 500 gained 0.7% on Wednesday, although it lost some steam following President Trump’s executive order to ground Boeing’s (BA 377.14, +1.73, +0.5%) 737 Max aircraft. Still, a break above the 2800 level for the S&P 500, along with a weakening dollar, helped the market steer past public scrutiny of Boeing.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.6%, the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.7%, and the Russell 2000 gained 0.4%.
All 11 S&P 500 sectors finished higher with gains ranging from 0.2% (utilities) to 1.1% (health care).[…]
The U.S. Treasury market was also quiet on Wednesday. The 2-yr yield and the 10-yr yield finished unchanged at 2.44% and 2.61%, respectively. WTI crude rose 2.3% to $58.27/bbl following some bullish inventory data out of the Energy Information Administration.[…]
• The Producer Price Index for February was nearly irrelevant given the soft Consumer Price Index for February seen yesterday. Be that as it may, it is worth noting that the index for final demand increased 0.1% (Briefing.com consensus +0.2%) while the index for final demand, excluding food and energy, also increased 0.1% (Briefing.com consensus +0.2%).
o The key takeaway from the report is that year-over-year inflation trends tipped lower for the index for final demand (1.9% versus 2.0% for the months ending in January) and the index for final demand, excluding food and energy (2.5% versus 2.6% for the 12 months ending in January). That tipping action will keep the Fed tipped toward a patient mindset.
• The Durable Goods Orders report for January showed a 0.4% increase in new orders (Briefing.com consensus -0.6%) and a 0.1% decline, excluding transportation (Briefing.com consensus +0.1%).
o The key takeaway from the report is that it was constructive for the business investment outlook and Q1 GDP forecasts, evidenced by the 0.8% increase in orders for nondefense capital goods, excluding aircraft, and the 0.8% increase in shipments for that same metric.
• Total construction spending declined 0.6% in December (Briefing.com consensus -0.3%) after increasing 0.8% in November.
o The key takeaway from the report is that total construction spending growth, marred by a 5.7% year-over-year decline in residential spending, is weak at 0.3% year-over-year.
• The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index increased 2.3% after declining 2.5% in the prior week.
- S&P 500 Sectors
|Sector||Daily Trend (Visual)||Relative Strength (Last Month – February)||Relative Strength (March)||%K vs. %D (March)|
|Consumer Discretionary||Down||SPY (Cross-Under)||SPY||Above|
|Utility||Under Pressure||SPY||XLU (Cross-Over)||Above|
|Real Estate||Down||SPY (Cross-Under)||XLRE (Cross-Over)||Above|