Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are higher; moving up since 5:0 AM;
- Odds are for an up day – watch for break below 2741.50 for change of fortune
- Key economic data due:
- CPI (0.0% vs. 0.1% est. and -0.1% prev.) at 8:30 AM
- Core CPI (0.2% vs. 0.2% est. and 0.2% prev.) at 8:30 AM
Sentiment & Catalyst
- Risk-on sentiment due to potential avoidance of government shutdown and trade deal
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Sydney and Mumbai were down
- European markets are higher
- Dollar index
- Crude Oil
- Copper (Unch.)
- 10-yrs yield is at 2.708%, up from February 12 close of 2.684%;
- 30-years is at 3.034%, up from 3.022%
- 2-years yield is at 2.533%, up from 2.508%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.175, down from 0.176
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2742.03, 2739.51 and 2730.49
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2762.24, 2785.93 and 2792.63
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2757.00, the high of 1:30 AM and break below 2746.75, the low of 5:30 AM
- On Tuesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (January contract) closed at 2744.00 and the index closed at 2744.73 – a spread of about -0.75 points; futures closed at 2744.75 for the day; the fair value is -0.75
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +8.50; Dow by +100; and NASDAQ by +32.00
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Downtrend reversing
- Daily: Up
- 120-Min: Up
- 30-Min: Up
- 15-Min: Up-Side
- 6-Min: Down-Up
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:
|2-Hour (e-mini future)||
|30-Minute (e-mini future)||
|15-Minute (e-mini future)||
Major U.S. indices closed higher on Tuesday February 12 in mostly higher volume. Dow Jones Transportation Average traded in lower volume. Major indices are breaking above recent congestion / resistance zone. DJT is nearing the downtrend line from October high.
The S&P 500 gained 1.3% on Tuesday, as optimism that U.S. lawmakers reached a tentative agreement to prevent another government shutdown helped fuel broad-based buying interest. Investors also remained hopeful for progress on the ongoing U.S-China trade talks.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.5%, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.5%, and the Russell 2000 gained 1.3%.
Tuesday’s gains helped the S&P 500 close above its 200-day moving average (2743) for the first time since Dec. 3.
10 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors finished with gains with materials (+2.3%), consumer discretionary (+1.7%), industrials (+1.6%), and financials (+1.6%) leading the advance. Conversely, the real estate (-0.7%) sector was the lone group to finish with a loss.
U.S. Treasuries ended the day on a lower note, pushing yields higher across the curve. The 2-yr yield and the 10-yr yield increased two basis points each to 2.50% and 2.68%, respectively. The U.S. Dollar Index pulled back 0.4% to 96.72, recording its first loss of the month. WTI crude rose 1.4% to $53.12/bbl.
• The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for January decreased to 101.2 from the prior reading of 104.4 in December.
• The December Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed that job openings increased to 7.335 million from a revised 7.166 million (from 6.888 million) in November.
- S&P 500 Sectors
|Sector||Daily Trend (Visual)||Relative Strength (Last Month – January)||Relative Strength (February)||%K vs. %D (January)|
|Consumer Discretionary||Down||XLY||SPY (Cross-Under)||Above|
|Consumer Staples||Down||SPY (Cross-Under)||SPY||Cross-Over|
|Energy||Down||XLE (Cross-Over)||SPY (Cross-Under)||Above|
|Finance||Down||XLF (Cross-Over)||SPY (Cross-Under)||Above|
|Utility||Under Pressure||SPY (X-Under)||SPY||Cross-Over|
|Heath Care||Down||SPY (Cross-Under)||SPY||Cross-Over|
|Real Estate||Down||XLRE (Cross-Over)||XLRE||Above|