Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are lower; moving lower since 12:00 PM on Friday
- Daily and weekly trends are down
- Odds are for a down day with elevated volatility – watch for break above 2648.00 for change of fortunes
- No key economic data due:
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mostly lower – Hong Kong was up and Sydney was closed
- European markets are lower
- Dollar index
- Crude Oil
- 10-yrs yield is at 2.751%, down from January 25 close of 2.753%;
- 30-years is at 3.059%, down from 3.062%
- 2-years yield is at 2.609%, unchanged
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.142, down from 0.144
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2643.21, 2627.01 and 2612.86
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2657.33, 2666.527 and 2672.38
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2648.00, the high of 9:00 AM and break below 2633.50, the low of 4:00 PM on January 24
- On Friday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (January contract) closed at 2663.25 and the index closed at 2664.76 – a spread of about -1.50 points; futures closed at 2663.50 for the day; the fair value is -0.25
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -21.00; Dow by -221; and NASDAQ by -64.50
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Down
- Daily: Downtrend Paused
- 120-Min: Side
- 30-Min: Down
- 15-Min: Down
- 6-Min: Down
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
|2-Hour (e-mini future)||
|30-Minute (e-mini future)||
|15-Minute (e-mini future)||
Major U.S. indices closed mostly higher on Friday January 25 in higher volume. The indices gapped up at the open and made day’s high by 11:00 AM to 12:00 PM. After that they mostly drifted lower. Their candlestick line had no lower shadow and green real body.
For the week, major U.S. indices closed mixed in mostly lower volume from previous week, which had one more trading day. Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ Composite and Russell 2000 closed up for the week. Dow Jones Transportation Average trade in higher volume.
The S&P 500 took a breather this holiday-shortened trading week, losing 0.2%, amid pestering concerns over global growth prospects. Despite the week’s minor setback, the benchmark index is still up 6.3% this month and 13.3% from its Dec. 24 low.
It was a mixed week with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.1%), the Nasdaq Composite (+0.1%), and the Russell 2000 (unch) also closing near their unchanged marks. The respective indices are up 6.0%, 8.0%, and 10.0% this month.
The S&P 500 sectors also finished mixed this week. The energy (-1.5%), consumer staples (-1.4%), and health care (-1.3%) sectors underperformed, while the information technology (+1.0%) and real estate (+1.5%) sectors outperformed.
While there was some selling interest during the week, the S&P 500’s 50-day moving average proved to be an important level of technical support. Whenever the S&P 500 fell below its 50-day moving average, a wave of buyers would lift the index right back up, preventing selling from getting too out of hand.
- S&P 500 Sectors
|Sector||Daily Trend (Visual)||Relative Strength (Last Month – December)||Relative Strength (January)||%K vs. %D (January)|
|Consumer Discretionary||Down||XLY (X-Over)||XLY||Cross-Over|
|Consumer Staples||Down||XLP||SPY (Cross-Under)||Below|
|Industrials||Down||SPY (X-Under)||XLI (Cross-Over)||Cross-Over|
|Finance||Down||SPY (X-Under)||XLF (Cross-Over)||Cross-Over|
|Utility||Under Pressure||SPY (X-Under)||SPY||Below|
|Heath Care||Down||XLV||SPY (Cross-Under)||Below|
|Real Estate||Down||SPY (X-Under)||XLRE (Cross-Over)||Cross-Over|