Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are lower; moving lower since 9:30 PM on Sunday; below Friday’s low
- Odds are for a down day with choppiness and elevated volatility – watch for break above 2605.00 for change of fortune
- Key economic data due:
- Empire State Manufacturing Index (10.9 vs. 20.1 est. and 23.3 prev.0.2% vs. 0.2% est. and 1.0% prev.) at 8:30 AM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Hong Kong closed down
- European markets are lower
- Dollar index
- Crude Oil
- 10-yrs yield is at 2.888%, down from December 14 close of 2.891%;
- 30-years is at 3.144%, down from 3.143%
- 2-years yield is at 2.741%, unchanged
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.147, down from 0.150
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2593.84, 2583.23 and 2573.61
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2603.26, 2619.04 and 2635.07
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2605.00, the high of 7:00 AM and break below 2591.00, the low of 8:30 AM
- On Friday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (January contract) closed at 2604.00 and the index closed at 2599.95 – a spread of about +4.00 points; futures closed at 2605.50 for the day; the fair value is -1.50
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -10.25; Dow by -125; and NASDAQ by -23.75
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
- Daily: In Correction
- 120-Min: Down
- 30-Min: Down
- 15-Min: Down
- 6-Min: Down
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
|2-Hour (e-mini future)||
|30-Minute (e-mini future)||
|15-Minute (e-mini future)||
Major U.S. indices closed lower on Friday December 14. The volume was mostly higher. Dow Jones Transportation Average traded in lower volume. Market gapped down at the open and then trade lower for the rest of the day.
For the week, the major U.S. indices closed lower in mostly higher volume. S&P 500 traded I lower volume than previous week. Only Utility sector was up for the week.
Wall Street suffered another down week, as continued uncertainty surrounding economic growth, trade, politics, and the path of interest rates kept many buyers on the sidelines. Heightened trading volatility also proved effective in keeping buyers sidelined, too, as large intraday swings proved exhausting and off-putting for many participants.
The S&P 500 lost 1.3%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.8%.
Tempering hope that last week’s sell-off created a “tradable” bottom was the continued weakness in the Dow Jones Transportation Average (-4.4%), S&P 500 financial sector (-3.5%), and small-cap Russell 2000 (-2.6%) — all of which play a key role in driving sentiment on the domestic economic outlook. For the month, these groups are down 12.1%, %, and z%, respectively.
The S&P 500 energy (-3.3%), health care (-1.9%), and real estate (-1.8%) sectors were some of the hardest-hit groups this week.
Energy stocks struggled as oil prices pulled back. WTI crude fell 2.5% this week to $51.27/bbl.
Not all was bad, though. The S&P 500 information technology (-0.02%) ended the week roughly flat while the communication services (+0.5%) and utility (+0.6%) sectors were able to finish in the green this week.
Recent demand for Treasuries cooled off, giving yields a slight bump. The Fed-sensitive 2-yr yield rose three basis points to 2.73%, and the benchmark 10-yr yield rose four basis points to 2.89%. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.4% to 97.45.
- S&P 500 Sectors
|Sector||Daily Trend (Visual)||Relative Strength (Last Month – November)||Relative Strength (Current)||%K vs. %D|
|Consumer Staples||Under Pressure||XLP||XLP||Cross-Under|
|Industrials||Down||XLI (Cross – Over)||XLI||Below|
|Heath Care||Under Pressure||XLV (Cross – Over)||XLV||Cross-Under|