Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are lower; moving lower since 11:30 PM on Thursday and broke below day’s low of 2795 at 3:30 AM; bouncing off the lows near 2789.00 and back to the congestion zone around 2795.00
- Odds are for a down day – watch for break above 2799.75 for change of fortune
- Key economic data due:
- PPI (0.6% vs. 0.2% est. and 0.2% prev. ) at 8:30 AM
- Core PPI (0.5% vs. 0.2% est. and 0.2% prev.) at 8:30 AM
- Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (est. 98.0, 98.6% prev.) at 10:00 AM
- Markets in the East closed lower
- European markets are lower
- Dollar index
- Crude Oil
- 10-yrs yield is at 3.209%, up from November 8 close of 3.234%;
- 30-years is at 3.406%, down from 3.427%
- 2-years yield is at 2.930%, up from 2.919%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.252, down from 0.257
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2794.99, 2787.82 and 2774.13
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2806.79, 2814.75 and 2816.21
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2799.25, the high of 4:00 AM and break below 2789.50, the low of 6:30 AM
- On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (December contract) closed at 2807.50 and the index closed at 2806.83 – a spread of about -1.25 points; futures closed at 2808.75 for the day; the fair value is -1.25
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 7:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -14.75; Dow by -107; and NASDAQ by -54.75
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: In Correction
- Daily: In Correction
- 120-Min: Up-Side
- 30-Min: Side
- 15-Min: Down
- 6-Min: Down
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
|2-Hour (e-mini future)||
|30-Minute (e-mini future)||
|15-Minute (e-mini future)||
Major U.S. indices closed mostly lower on Thursday November 8. The volume was lower from previous day. Dow Jones Industrial Average closed higher. The major indices made spinning top candlestick lines with upper and lower shadows longer than very small real body. The price range for the day was small.. The market went up from the open till mid-0day when it declined before regaining most of the lost ground in the final hour of trading. Six S&P sectors closed down and five closed up. The overall price-action indicates indecision. More clarity will come when the price breaks above or below Thursday’s extreme levels.
The S&P 500 slipped 0.3% on Thursday on the heels of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) decision to leave the fed funds rate unchanged as expected. The benchmark index traded slightly below its flat line leading up to the Committee’s statement release, and sharply dropped to session lows before recouping some losses.
Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was unchanged, the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.5%, and the Russell 2000 lost 0.3%.
In its statement, the FOMC said it expects further gradual rate hikes that are consistent with sustained economic growth, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near its symmetric 2% target over the medium term. The one hitch, if it can be called that, is that the FOMC statement acknowledged business fixed investment has moderated.
Consequently, the yield on the Fed-sensitive 2-yr Treasury note jumped four basis points to 2.97% — its highest level since June 2008. Also, the benchmark 10-yr yield added two basis points to 3.23%, and the U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.7% to 96.68.
In the latest batch of Q3 earnings reports, lower guidance overshadowed better-than-expected profits for many names.
- S&P 500 Sectors
|Sector||Daily Trend (Visual)||Relative Strength (Last Month – October)||Relative Strength (Current)||%K vs. %D|
|Consumer Discretionary||Down||SPY||XLY||Cross – Over|
|Consumer Staples||Under Pressure||XLP||XLP||Above|
|Materials||Down||XLB||XLB||Cross – Over|
|Finance||Down||XLF||XLF||Cross – Over|
|Heath Care||Under Pressure||SPY||XLV||Cross – Over|
|Real Estate||Down (Turning Up)||XLRE||XLRE||Cross – Over|