Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are higher; moving lower since 7:45 after breaking above 2:15 AM high of 2764.00 by a tick; broken below the intermediate low of 2753.75
- Potential double top pattern on 15-minute chart; 61.8% extension target is near 2747.50 and the 100% extension target is near 2743.50
- Odds are for an up day with good chance of sideways move from current, pre-open, levels and with choppiness and elevated volatility – watch for break below 2747.50 for change of fortune
- Key economic data due:
- Non-Farm Employment Change (250K vs. 194K est. and 134K prev.) at 8:30 AM
- Unemployment Rate ( 3.7% vs. 3.7% est. and 3.7% prev.) at 8:30 AM
- Average Hourly Earnings (0.2% vs. 0.2% est. and 0.3% prev. ) at 8:30 AM
- Trade Balance (-54.0B vs. -53.5B est. and -53.2B prev. ) at 8:30 AM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed up
- European markets are higher
- Dollar index
- Crude Oil
- 10-yrs yield is at 3.157%, up from November 1 close of 3.144%;
- 30-years is at 3.389%, up from 3.387%
- 2-years yield is at 2.875%, down from 2.793%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.290, down from 0.301
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2741.67, 2726.44 and 2708.85
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2753.59, 2766.48 and 2778.94
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2765.75, the high of 7:30 AM and break below 2753.75, the low of 6:00 AM
- On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (December contract) closed at 2738.75 and the index closed at 2740.37 – a spread of about +1.75 points; futures closed at 2738.00 for the day; the fair value is +0.75
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were up +18.75; Dow by +231; and NASDAQ down by -10.00
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: In Correction
- Daily: In Correction
- 120-Min: Side-Up
- 30-Min: Up
- 15-Min: Up
- 6-Min: Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
|2-Hour (e-mini future)||
|30-Minute (e-mini future)||
|15-Minute (e-mini future)||
Major U.S. indices closed higher on Thursday November 1. The volume was lower from previous day. The indices gapped up at the open and stayed higher and also broke above previous day’s high, which is bullish. All S&P Sectors closed higher except for the Utility, which declined by -0.4%.
The S&P 500 added 1.1% for a third straight day of gains on Thursday
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.1%, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.8%, and the Russell 2000 outperformed with a gain of 2.2%.
Separately, U.S. Treasuries ticked higher on Thursday, pushing the 2-yr yield down four basis points to 2.84% and the 10-yr yield down two basis points to 3.14%. The slight flattening of the yield curve kept gains in check for the rate-sensitive financials sector (+0.5%), as lenders depend on the difference between what they pay for deposits and what they earn on loans.
Overseas, the Bank of England unanimously voted to leave rates unchanged at 0.75% as expected on Thursday. Additionally, the central bank lowered its growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019 by 0.1% in each year to 1.3% and 1.7%, respectively.
In Asia, major indices finished mostly higher, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng outperforming with a gain of 1.8%. China’s Shanghai Composite ticked 0.1% higher.
The key takeaway from the report [ ISM Manufacturing Index ] is that the pullback is most likely a natural slowing of activity following what has been an impressive acceleration in manufacturing activity on a national level.
The key takeaway from the report [Productivity is that productivity is picking up. The third quarter increase was double the prior 10-quarter average increase of 1.1%. Faster productivity is a springboard for a better standard of living.
- S&P 500 Sectors
|Sector||Daily Trend (Visual)||Relative Strength (Last Month – October)||Relative Strength (Current)||%K vs. %D|
|Consumer Staples||Under Pressure||XLP||XLP||Above|
|Materials||Down||XLB||XLB||Cross – Over|
|Finance||Down||XLF||XLF||Cross – Over|
|Heath Care||Under Pressure||SPY||XLV||Below|
|Real Estate||Down (Turning Up)||XLRE||XLRE||Below|